Haven't been on here in a long time, glad to see it's still the best ffball discussion site around. Just thought I'd comment on a few big mistakes I feel a lot of people are failing to account for on draft day
1) Name some NFL players that have returned from an ACL injury to glory - harder to do than one might think. Jamal Lewis is a rare exception. My point is don't invest all your $ in someone like ADP this year as a top RB (especially considering his style of play is strongly dependent on lateral movement to break ankles with); to expect the glory days to return so quickly is pipe-dreaming.
2) *Insert phenom QB* is as worthy of the top spot as Arian Foster/Ray Rice/etc! - is Rodgers gonna be the top QB? Probably. Is he gonna score the most points in fantasy? Probably. But the point is all about value. This year especially, you can get QBs like Matt Ryan, Big Ben, Philip Rivers for pennies late in your draft, and each one has potential to be a top 5-10 guy. This holds especially true for the "mid-tier QBs" (i.e. Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, Michael Vick, etc) who often fall well under the price of a Rodgers/Brees/Brady but clearly have the potential to put up top5 QB #s. With "the days of the RB being over," the top RBs have only increased in value. Foster/Rice/McCoy types are invaluable.
3) *Insert rookie RB* is awesome, he'll take over for so-and-so veteran RB and is worth a high pick! - not always true I'll admit, but often times talented rookie RBs are horrible blockers and a coach will be much more inclined to keep his veteran in for a good # of snaps purely on blocking ability. Don't be surprised when lightning quick/athletic rookies don't see massive playing time; it takes time for most of these guys to read defense/learn to pick up blitzes, etc.
4) Strength of schedule is horrible for him, avoid him!!! - SOS is quite possibly the single hardest thing to predict on a year to year basis. Look at the defensive rankings in recent history, and its easy to see how much it fluctuates; don't let SOS blind you from taking a top talent especially. Defenses may even hold to be tough, but top talent (factoring in o-lines) in the NFL can overcome whatever def. you throw at them. However, SOS is helpful when deciding between players very close in your rankings. Can't make up your mind on McCoy or Rice, and realize one's SOS is ranked much higher than the other? This is the time to react.
I'll add more on here as I think of them, curious on what other mistakes the tank is noticing/thoughts on these
Disclaimer: None of these statements are generalizations and there are always exceptions. Had to mention it before "that guy" comes in here on his high horse