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PostPosted: Sun 07.22.2012, 21:16 
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Haven't been on here in a long time, glad to see it's still the best ffball discussion site around. Just thought I'd comment on a few big mistakes I feel a lot of people are failing to account for on draft day

1) Name some NFL players that have returned from an ACL injury to glory - harder to do than one might think. Jamal Lewis is a rare exception. My point is don't invest all your $ in someone like ADP this year as a top RB (especially considering his style of play is strongly dependent on lateral movement to break ankles with); to expect the glory days to return so quickly is pipe-dreaming.

2) *Insert phenom QB* is as worthy of the top spot as Arian Foster/Ray Rice/etc! - is Rodgers gonna be the top QB? Probably. Is he gonna score the most points in fantasy? Probably. But the point is all about value. This year especially, you can get QBs like Matt Ryan, Big Ben, Philip Rivers for pennies late in your draft, and each one has potential to be a top 5-10 guy. This holds especially true for the "mid-tier QBs" (i.e. Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, Michael Vick, etc) who often fall well under the price of a Rodgers/Brees/Brady but clearly have the potential to put up top5 QB #s. With "the days of the RB being over," the top RBs have only increased in value. Foster/Rice/McCoy types are invaluable.

3) *Insert rookie RB* is awesome, he'll take over for so-and-so veteran RB and is worth a high pick! - not always true I'll admit, but often times talented rookie RBs are horrible blockers and a coach will be much more inclined to keep his veteran in for a good # of snaps purely on blocking ability. Don't be surprised when lightning quick/athletic rookies don't see massive playing time; it takes time for most of these guys to read defense/learn to pick up blitzes, etc.

4) Strength of schedule is horrible for him, avoid him!!! - SOS is quite possibly the single hardest thing to predict on a year to year basis. Look at the defensive rankings in recent history, and its easy to see how much it fluctuates; don't let SOS blind you from taking a top talent especially. Defenses may even hold to be tough, but top talent (factoring in o-lines) in the NFL can overcome whatever def. you throw at them. However, SOS is helpful when deciding between players very close in your rankings. Can't make up your mind on McCoy or Rice, and realize one's SOS is ranked much higher than the other? This is the time to react.

I'll add more on here as I think of them, curious on what other mistakes the tank is noticing/thoughts on these

Disclaimer: None of these statements are generalizations and there are always exceptions. Had to mention it before "that guy" comes in here on his high horse :popcorn:


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PostPosted: Sun 07.22.2012, 22:11 
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I feel grabbing 3 RBs in a row as a mistake. It leaves you needing to target positions in later rounds and possibly missing out on value.


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PostPosted: Sun 07.22.2012, 22:24 
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One big mistake I see is people drafting too many QBs.

3 QBs - huge mistake. You can only play one.

2 QBs - defensible if you draft Vick or you want to play "mathchups" or you want to take a late flyer on Luck

1 QB - Best strategy if you can get a Top 5 QB. You're only going to need a backup for your starter's bye week. Why not wait until that week and see what's available on the wire? Or make a trade with one of the dopes who drafted 3 QBs.

Also, by not drafting a backup, you can load up on RBs and WRs. You don't know who this year's Laurent Robinson will be, but if you have 6-8 WRs on your roster, one of them might pop.

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PostPosted: Sun 07.22.2012, 22:24 
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:thumbright:

The ACL was an interesting note. I might still gamble on Peterson but it's a valid concern.

And SOS blows monkeys, couldn't agree with you more. It's a tiny sample size against different teams from a year past that people want to point at like it doesn't fluctuate greatly year to year.

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PostPosted: Sun 07.22.2012, 22:33 
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5) If someone starts a thread saying "XYZ Unknown Player is Going to Break Out"....

...wait until next year.


The tank is always 1 year too early (there were Jimmy Graham threads in 2010).
Not to mention how long the Lance Kendricks thread was last year.


pwbowen wrote:
And SOS blows monkeys, couldn't agree with you more. It's a tiny sample size against different teams from a year past that people want to point at like it doesn't fluctuate greatly year to year.

I'll agree, to an extent.

But the essential point stands: Don't use last year's SoS. It means nothing. If anything, use it as a starting point and then judge a team based on their off-season acquisitions. And take account injuries.


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PostPosted: Sun 07.22.2012, 22:50 
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625james wrote:
I feel grabbing 3 RBs in a row as a mistake. It leaves you needing to target positions in later rounds and possibly missing out on value.


I thought I felt the same, but I just completed a mock on ESPN, 10 man snake, and I took 3 RB's to try to see how my team would look. In the 9 spot, my first 8 picks went like this off the top of my head:

Chris Johnson
Ryan Mathews
Darren McFadden
Brandon Marshall
Dwayne Bowe
Tony Romo
Antonio Brown
James Starks
... and then filling up my bench, etc etc. I think I took another 2 WR (Hey-Bey and Boldin), can't remember the rest. I think I grabbed Cutler as a backup as well.

Now I don't know if I'm drafting with a bunch of fools, but the above team is stacked. I've tried 3 RB's a number of times from different draft positions on ESPN, and loved my team... this was the 3rd or 4th draft I did this and it turned out really well for me... who knows though, maybe I've been drafting with a bunch of 10 year olds who know nothing. ha.

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PostPosted: Sun 07.22.2012, 23:05 
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pwbowen wrote:
:thumbright:

The ACL was an interesting note. I might still gamble on Peterson but it's a valid concern.

And SOS blows monkeys, couldn't agree with you more. It's a tiny sample size against different teams from a year past that people want to point at like it doesn't fluctuate greatly year to year.


If there's one freak of nature in the NFL to be the outlier to that theory, its probably him... but I'd most certainly have Toby Gerhart sitting on my bench if I went that route :wink:

As for SOS, it is indeed grossly overrated BUT the one thing it actually has served a purpose for me in the past is avoiding Revis island during fantasy playoffs

Take last year for example: Hakeem Nicks (Week 16: 1 catch 20 yards) + DeSean Jackson (Week 15: 2 catches 28 yards)


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PostPosted: Sun 07.22.2012, 23:12 
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jnadke wrote:
5) If someone starts a thread saying "XYZ Unknown Player is Going to Break Out"....

...wait until next year.


The tank is always 1 year too early (there were Jimmy Graham threads in 2010).
Not to mention how long the Lance Kendricks thread was last year.


:lol: Can't stop the hype train. Maybe this year James Starks + Jared Cook finally explode?


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PostPosted: Mon 07.23.2012, 00:00 
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-Counting mock drafts as evidence there's rhyme and reason to your draft 'strategy'

-Being too passive -period- but esp. in the mid to late rounds.

-Drafting with a predetermined round/position designation

-Taking LJ at #3

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PostPosted: Mon 07.23.2012, 04:41 
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#1 - Not being flexible.


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PostPosted: Mon 07.23.2012, 07:19 
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Paying any attention to mock drafts. Rank players yourself, otherwise, what's the fun? (Do, however, have an ADP list with you during the draft so you can get a feel for which players you can wait another round or two on.)

Drafting more than 1 QB, 1 TE, 1K, or 1 STD. That's what the wire is for.

Letting SOS and bye weeks affect your draft decisions. I call it 'death by overanalysis'.

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PostPosted: Mon 07.23.2012, 07:37 
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gballs1 wrote:
Paying any attention to mock drafts. Rank players yourself, otherwise, what's the fun? (Do, however, have an ADP list with you during the draft so you can get a feel for which players you can wait another round or two on.)

Drafting more than 1 QB, 1 TE, 1K, or 1 STD. That's what the wire is for.

Letting SOS and bye weeks affect your draft decisions. I call it 'death by overanalysis'.


curious how you have time or expertise to rank the top 30 at each player. I essentially use a guide like fantasy sharks and move player up or down based on my liking of the player.


* thinking you're smarter than every other owner is a mistake I used to make.


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PostPosted: Mon 07.23.2012, 07:51 
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](*,)

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PostPosted: Mon 07.23.2012, 08:31 
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Assuming redraft

#1 As others have posted. Not being flexible. Going into a draft with a strategy and only doing that.
#2 Looking back instead of forward on fantasy potential.
#3 Blind faith in players. (See Manning See Peterson. See McFadden)
#4 Blindly ignoring strength of schedule.
#5 Ignoring that players can be a one year wonder
#6 Drafting any Shanny or NE backs unless it is HUGE value
#7 Too much faith in the potential of rooky running backs.
#8 Looking too deep for potential stars


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PostPosted: Mon 07.23.2012, 08:47 
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gballs1 wrote:
Paying any attention to mock drafts. Rank players yourself, otherwise, what's the fun? (Do, however, have an ADP list with you during the draft so you can get a feel for which players you can wait another round or two on.)

Drafting more than 1 QB, 1 TE, 1K, or 1 STD. That's what the wire is for.

Letting SOS and bye weeks affect your draft decisions. I call it 'death by overanalysis'.


I disagree with that for QB/TE. If your bench allows it, especially in a year like this when the top TEs cost so much, I'd prefer to wait towards the end of a draft and grab a few guys with potential. As the season unfolds early on, I'll cut the ones that aren't panning out.

As for QB, it also depends. In a 1QB league I agree. But then again, I don't get why people play in 1QBs, whats the fun in having the waiver wire stacked with talent? In a 2QB, again, I may draft a solid QB1, but that #2 spot will be a few fliers towards the end.

I like to think of weeks 1-3 of the regular season as a sort of preseason for my team to battle for their starting jobs


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