Picking #1 in 2012

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Mako Shark
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I know.. get out the violin on the guy picking 1st this year... while he gets stuck with A. Foster (and if you're seriously taking AROD.. you are a fantasy rookie).

However, the #1 slot in snake drafts (re-draft leagues) brings some challenges with it this year. The 2nd and 3rd Rd use to be fairly easy.. as you could take 2 top WR's or the best RB available and the best WR available. This year is even tougher as question marks surround the 2nd and 3rd tier RB's and after Megatron and maybe Fitz.. there is a fairly hefty drop off in WR's (plus the WR's are really deep this year). Plus.. you could go with a better QB (Stafford for example) or a Gronk if he falls to you.

Then.. since you took Foster 1st.. you have to take Tate a round or 2 early.. just to assure you get him.

Any other thoughts on how you see the 1st pick this year (and what other strategies would you impose)?
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I'll save you all of the rude replies and suggest posting your question in the Draft Strategy thread:

viewforum.php?f=35

You'll get more helpful responses :thumbright:
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Mako Shark
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Sorry.. I didn't realize there was a forum dedicated to that. I re-posted my thread there. Thanks!
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Mako Shark
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I drafted number one in one of the drafts that I've already been in, and I was pretty pleased with my team. I did it a bit strangely though. I took McCoy #1 overall. I passed on Foster because of the Tate nonsense you mention, and because I really think the choice of the top 3 is a pick 'em. At the next elbow, I think you need to get at least one more RB. The turn after that gets ugly. The guys available there that were worth looking at for me were AP, Charles, and Fred Jackson. I'd think the top 2 TEs will be off of the board at that point, as well as the top 3 WRs in your format, and the top 4-5 QBs. Stafford or Cam may fall there, and grabbing one of them to pair with the RB at that elbow seems solid. This was a PPR league so Megatron, Fitz, and Welker were gone for me. Which means you should be able to grab a strong WR1 there as well. The ATL boys, the Giants WRs, AJ, Andre, Jennings, etc. may be there based on your preference. Or you could be slightly insane like me and go RB,RB, RB. I took Peterson and Charles. If they are both back to full health, I think I've got a strong team. The next elbow you'll want at least one WR no matter who you took at the first turn. Guys like Maclin, ABrown, Harvin, Smith, and Decker may be there and worth targeting. If you don't have a QB and you want a specific guy, this might be your last shot at Vick, Eli, Ryan, or Romo, and you'll have to reach for them (One of them, likely Ryan, may fall). If you wait for QB one more turn, you'll be looking at Peyton, Rivers, or Cutler as your QB1. If you go RB here, you're looking at Turner, Shonn, LawFirm, or Helu which makes me throw up in my mouth a bit. Hernandez may be there for TEs at this turn if you want him and it may be your last look at Gates. Most everyone else should still be available on the next turn at TE. I went Maclin, ABrown, on this turn and grabbed Rivers and Witten on the next to round it out.

My draft was for a 12 team PPR. Sorry that got long, and sorry if it's no help at all. Feel free to 'cool story bro' me for my rambling and somewhat personal take on it.
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Mako Shark
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jcalebmoore wrote:I drafted number one in one of the drafts that I've already been in, and I was pretty pleased with my team. I did it a bit strangely though. I took McCoy #1 overall. I passed on Foster because of the Tate nonsense you mention, and because I really think the choice of the top 3 is a pick 'em. At the next elbow, I think you need to get at least one more RB. The turn after that gets ugly. The guys available there that were worth looking at for me were AP, Charles, and Fred Jackson. I'd think the top 2 TEs will be off of the board at that point, as well as the top 3 WRs in your format, and the top 4-5 QBs. Stafford or Cam may fall there, and grabbing one of them to pair with the RB at that elbow seems solid. This was a PPR league so Megatron, Fitz, and Welker were gone for me. Which means you should be able to grab a strong WR1 there as well. The ATL boys, the Giants WRs, AJ, Andre, Jennings, etc. may be there based on your preference. Or you could be slightly insane like me and go RB,RB, RB. I took Peterson and Charles. If they are both back to full health, I think I've got a strong team. The next elbow you'll want at least one WR no matter who you took at the first turn. Guys like Maclin, ABrown, Harvin, Smith, and Decker may be there and worth targeting. If you don't have a QB and you want a specific guy, this might be your last shot at Vick, Eli, Ryan, or Romo, and you'll have to reach for them (One of them, likely Ryan, may fall). If you wait for QB one more turn, you'll be looking at Peyton, Rivers, or Cutler as your QB1. If you go RB here, you're looking at Turner, Shonn, LawFirm, or Helu which makes me throw up in my mouth a bit. Hernandez may be there for TEs at this turn if you want him and it may be your last look at Gates. Most everyone else should still be available on the next turn at TE. I went Maclin, ABrown, on this turn and grabbed Rivers and Witten on the next to round it out.

My draft was for a 12 team PPR. Sorry that got long, and sorry if it's no help at all. Feel free to 'cool story bro' me for my rambling and somewhat personal take on it.


Awesome Feedback!! This is what I love about the tank. You ask a question and you get very solid, experienced responses. I was also contemplating going RB/RB at 2/3 due to the lack of RB's after that. Or I thought about going WR/WR or RB/WR. I think I'm passing on the QB early in this spot. I figure I can get one of the ATL boys and a decent RB here (i.e. Charles, AP, Lynch or Bradshaw).. because like you said.. after that is slim pickings on reliable RB's.
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Whale Shark
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As someone who ownerd Foster, Rice, and Mccoy 2 years ago and Ray and Foster last year, Foster is the pick here. He is a different kind of back. On a per game basis he is such a beast..

Now strategy depends on league size, scoring, roster spots, etc. but in my experience in mocks, you do not need to pick a wr in the first 4 rounds to end up with 3 top 20 recievers. (My ranks, not consensus).

The point is if on the turn if you see Graham or Gronk fall that far, thats my 2nd round pick. Then you can take the next best running back. A chance to start a team with Foster and Forte/Murray/Sproles and Graham is a good start. If the elite tight ends are gone, which I suspect, I would consider going 3 running backs if there is a flex spot. If not, then possibly the best wr on the board, which could be an Andre or Jennings and one of the running backs above. Then you can hopefully get Hernandez or Gates in the 4th round.

Back to the first point of not drafted wrs early. Guys like Percy, Lloyd, Maclin, Stevie Johnson are all falling into the 5th and 6th rounds of drafts. All of these guys have top 10 upside and all have solid floors. I do not see a huge difference between these guys and any wr after Calvin/Fitz.
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16 team ppr league/Return Yards

QB- A. Luck
WR- Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Cecil Shorts, Andre Roberts
WR- Roddy White, Percy Harvin, Cody Lattimore, D. Adams
RB- J. Bell, C. Michael, Alfred Blue, CJ Anderson
TE- GRONK
DEF- Indy, Wash
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simayonaise wrote:Foster is the pick here. He is a different kind of back. On a per game basis he is such a beast..

Eh. I can see Ray Rice being #2.

But Foster is blessed with hands-down the best OLine in the league. Or at least was blessed with the best.... On a YPC standpoint he was outplayed by Ben Tate in 2011. Now, I won't disagree he's a great back, HOU re-signed him because he's a proven great 3-down starter, and that's worth a lot.

PHI has been working on improving their OLine. It's agreed by many that McCoy is a high-caliber, special talent.

To ignore McCoy and blindly think Foster is undisputed #1 is very dangerous in fantasy.


That said, for the immediate future Foster has the advantage because of the division.
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Megalodon
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I like moved my vote for rice, foster has tate and mccoy isnt scoring 20 tds again.
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Whale Shark
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simayonaise wrote:As someone who ownerd Foster, Rice, and Mccoy 2 years ago and Ray and Foster last year, Foster is the pick here. He is a different kind of back. On a per game basis he is such a beast..


I couldn't agree more. I've owned McCoy for 2.5 of the last 3 years, Foster for the last two years and Ray Rice last year (by the end of last year, I had all three guys on one team....and lost in the championship...). Point being, week in and week out, there's a feel about owning Foster that I'm not sure I've ever had in fantasy before. You just feel like he's going to put up 30 points a game every Sunday and his consistancy is incredible. Surprisingly enough, Ray Rice felt like the least special of the three to own.

Note: I understand that "feel" doesn't amount to a whole lot of anything, but I do think it's an interesting reflection. If Foster is on the board, there's no one I'd consider taking over him.
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.5PPR
QB:Ben,Dalton,Taylor
RB:Lewis,Gore,L.Murray,M.Jones,Andrews,Michael,D.Cobb
WR:A.Brown,ODB,Green,J.Brown
TE:Olsen,Gates

PPR
QB:Brady
RB:AP,Hyde,CJA,Ellington,Riddick
WR:Sanders,J.Jones,Maclin,J.Brown,Jeffery
TE:Clay
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Mako Shark
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rugger48 wrote:I like moved my vote for rice, foster has tate and mccoy isnt scoring 20 tds again.


I agree the TDs should go down there, but I like the receptions to increase substantially. I think that makes it a wash, or possible increase for Shady in PPR formats.
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Great White Shark
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All 3 RB's are close, but A.Foster to me still has the highest upside.

He racks up more yds and TD's with less touches. He actually has 300 or so less NFL touches career wise than Rice, so maybe a little fresher legs (and Tate spelling him only helps his YPC)..and throw in the way Schiano abused Rice at Rutgers (almost 800 touches in 2 yrs).

Can't go wrong, but I am most comfortable with Foster.
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I still like Rodgers. I don't understand the negativity towards taking Rodgers 1st but is often taken by the 4th pick? Even though the other QB's are good is doubtful Eli is going to throw for around 50 TD's. There is no guarantee that Newton/Stafford will still be available when your next pick comes.
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I'd run with McCoy because his back up wont get drafted. You can pick him up whoever he is in the last round. Makes your team better mid rounds. Its splitting hairs Rice Foster Mccoy. Also same could be said for Rice.

Why draft a guy where as you need to spend a higher pick to get the handcuff.
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Mako Shark
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badgasman9 wrote:I'd run with McCoy because his back up wont get drafted. You can pick him up whoever he is in the last round. Makes your team better mid rounds. Its splitting hairs Rice Foster Mccoy. Also same could be said for Rice.

Why draft a guy where as you need to spend a higher pick to get the handcuff.


I agree with you, but the flip-side to that coin is it's a higher premium for the insurance that also pays out higher. If Foster goes down and you have Tate, you're in a great spot. If McCoy goes down and you grab whatever schlub replaces him, it's precarious.
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jcalebmoore wrote:
badgasman9 wrote:I'd run with McCoy because his back up wont get drafted. You can pick him up whoever he is in the last round. Makes your team better mid rounds. Its splitting hairs Rice Foster Mccoy. Also same could be said for Rice.

Why draft a guy where as you need to spend a higher pick to get the handcuff.


I agree with you, but the flip-side to that coin is it's a higher premium for the insurance that also pays out higher. If Foster goes down and you have Tate, you're in a great spot. If McCoy goes down and you grab whatever schlub replaces him, it's precarious.


Exactly.

Who are you taking as the backup on the Ravens and Eagles? More importantly, what is it you're expecting from them? If Foster goes down, Tate becomes a RB1 overnight. The same can't be said for whatever develops in Phily or Baltimore. The idea that Foster is less valuable because Tate is being drafted is pretty silly. In a 10-team league, you won't even be handcuffing McCoy or Rice, which means if one of them gets hurt and there is a clear backup, you'll be in line on the waiver wire with the rest of the league.
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.5PPR
QB:Ben,Dalton,Taylor
RB:Lewis,Gore,L.Murray,M.Jones,Andrews,Michael,D.Cobb
WR:A.Brown,ODB,Green,J.Brown
TE:Olsen,Gates

PPR
QB:Brady
RB:AP,Hyde,CJA,Ellington,Riddick
WR:Sanders,J.Jones,Maclin,J.Brown,Jeffery
TE:Clay

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