Andrew Luck projections

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Great White Shark
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With RGIII stealing most of the rookie qb headlines, looking at articles about Luck have been nothing short of incredible...he is completing passes in practice at a very high percentage, he has one great receiver and several other good options in the passing game. Is this all a mirage? Can I possibly rely on Luck as a pairing with Cutler/Schaub/Palmer?

I think I am ready to seriously consider Luck for this year as a QB2.

Is 4000 yards, 30 tds absurd to imagine out of him this year?

the hype this preseason has been overwhelming so I'm skeptical but the praise from everyone about this guy is like 100% on all fronts. Anyone else giving this any thought?
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Supreme Megalodon
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30 TD is high, imo.
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luck=3550 25 tds,16 int,250 yds running plus 3 tds
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Mako Shark
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I think he is almost 80%owned at yahoo. I have Rodgers, but am thinking of picking him up off of waivers as trade bait.
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He's being drafted as the 21st QB off the board, so he's definitely worthy of a roster spot in a 12-team league.

I think he'll be solid out of the gate.

Within 2-3 years, he'll be a Top 5 fantasy QB and an NFL superstar.
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HammerHead Shark
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Elmagister wrote:30 TD is high, imo.


While I do agree, who is going to come out and predict he will get less than 20 TD's? He may get more than 30 just depends on how well he adapts.
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Fantasy 247 wrote:
Elmagister wrote:30 TD is high, imo.


While I do agree, who is going to come out and predict he will get less than 20 TD's? He may get more than 30 just depends on how well he adapts.


I look for more like 20-24.
Mako Shark
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running game questionable, dfense questionable...he may have to sling it. Plus he has some decent receiving options.

He may get close to that 30 tds mark.
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Megalodon
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I always have a hard time projecting good numbers for a rookie unless its a RB that is uber-talented. Of course every year a rookie or two does really well fantasy-wise, but odds are they aren't going to do great. Long story short, I'm a pessimist when it comes to rookies. I may take a flier on him in the 12th round or so, if I wait that long for a backup QB, but I definitely wouldn't reach for him. The biggest reason is that I don't like the guys after him.
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Great White Shark
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I don't think it's about the numbers themselves as it is situational context. Just like Stafford last year, being in a situation heavily geared toward a passing game from dump-offs to going vertical, it appears to me we'll see an emphasis on a short passing game. I think this will be the case due to addition with Fleener and no change at RB. I imagine they'll ease him into it with short reads and go from there.

I'm picturing a high attempt, low ypc type of season, kind of like Matt Ryan circa 2010. Not sure of the line's effectiveness to punch it in, so look for Collie and Fleener to see a lot of looks on short outs/flats and Wayne with a few back shoulders. Maybe something around 3700 yards 25 tds 15 int and another 200-300 rushing and 2-3 rush tds.
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3400/20 total td

Talk of 30 td is silliness.
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Great White Shark
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hankrip wrote:3400/20 total td

Talk of 30 td is silliness.


This.

And I'm a believer in Luck (let the puns begin). Give him some time to live up to his potential, this team is being rebuilt and he's a rookie.

Markulous wrote:I always have a hard time projecting good numbers for a rookie unless its a RB that is uber-talented. Of course every year a rookie or two does really well fantasy-wise, but odds are they aren't going to do great. Long story short, I'm a pessimist when it comes to rookies. I may take a flier on him in the 12th round or so, if I wait that long for a backup QB, but I definitely wouldn't reach for him. The biggest reason is that I don't like the guys after him.


Or a rookie QB that can run like a mofo :)
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I think Luck will be somewhere near:

3500 yards - 22TD - 20INT
300 rush yards - 2TD

A very nice QB2 when all is said and done, but he wont be the consistant QB that you can count on. I think he will have a few huge games, and a few that are in teh crapper. In otherwords, the ideal back-up for Radgers, Brady, Brees, Newton, Rivers where you only play him 1 week and dont consider him the rest of the year.
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Great White Shark
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Did any qb look as sharp as Luck did during preseason week 1?

I think it might be reasonable to raise the floor on his projections. I think at this point he should be drafted before RGIII in both redraft and keeper leagues.
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KIAball1996 wrote:Did any qb look as sharp as Luck did during preseason week 1?

I think it might be reasonable to raise the floor on his projections. I think at this point he should be drafted before RGIII in both redraft and keeper leagues.

Its still only one game but yea I guess you can say luck is ahead. The only reason I think RG3 could do better is because the offense washington runs. But I thin luck is a better qb and he's athletic enough to run when he needs to. I think he could be more nfl ready but idk we ll see

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