Rope a dope draft strategy?

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Great White Shark
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Has anyone ever deliberately effected a draft strategy where you target players injured or suspended early, take advantage of the lowered ADPs, and then finish strong in the playoffs? What if you targeted Mathews, lynch, ADP, Britt, and sacrificed weeks 1-4? It seems like there's an opportunity here this year. Maybe you don't even filed a full roster weeks 1 and 2.
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Great White Shark
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grabbing some guys with lowered ADPs for value is one thing, but sacrificing a few games when leagues generally only have 13 or 14 games in regular season is really risky. You'd have to be assuming those guys come back in the first eligible week and play at a high level. If not, working up to high level over a few slower weeks could mean that you have a great playoff team while you missed the playoffs waiting for them to turn it around in too short a timeframe.
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Megalodon
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FutBol wrote:grabbing some guys with lowered ADPs for value is one thing, but sacrificing a few games when leagues generally only have 13 or 14 games in regular season is really risky. You'd have to be assuming those guys come back in the first eligible week and play at a high level. If not, working up to high level over a few slower weeks could mean that you have a great playoff team while you missed the playoffs waiting for them to turn it around in too short a timeframe.


this is my take as well.
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Great White Shark
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:lol: Love the rope-a-dope name...though I'd probably call this moneyball.
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Great White Shark
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prplhz14 wrote:
FutBol wrote:grabbing some guys with lowered ADPs for value is one thing, but sacrificing a few games when leagues generally only have 13 or 14 games in regular season is really risky. You'd have to be assuming those guys come back in the first eligible week and play at a high level. If not, working up to high level over a few slower weeks could mean that you have a great playoff team while you missed the playoffs waiting for them to turn it around in too short a timeframe.


this is my take as well.



That's the real concern, although in this league, 8 of 12 make the playoffs. I may mock this and see how it looks.
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Megalodon
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Depending on the situation, I'm often willing to take a couple of those guys, but I won't deliberately load up on a lot of them and assume they'll come back and finish strong.

I'm willing to grab AP or Charles in the 3rd, but I'm not willing to do that while also grabbing Mathews early, Richardson early or Britt at all.

There's going to be varying degrees of risk for every player, but I'm not willing to accept that risk along with the certainty that I'm going to have some big holes in my lineup early in the season.

With that said, it's often a good idea to target those guys via trade early in the year.
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Great White Shark
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I tried this in a mock, and got Ryan mid second round. Good value. But neither Charles nor Lynch nor AP fell to the third, so it was a limited concept.
Great White Shark
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I think you can afford to take 1 or 2 of those guys, but not all 4 lol
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Great White Shark
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You take 1 discount RB, you can get by w/ spot starters for a few weeks. You do it w/ both your backs? Good luck.

"moneyball drafting" :lol:
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Great White Shark
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The only way I see that "type" of strategy working is via auction drafts where you can stretch those dollars saved and upgrade somewhere else based on the early sacrifice. In snakes, the guys won't be falling enough to justify the idea. Risk is inherently tied to reward but ONLY in the capacity where you can accurately price that risk. Snakes don't allow for that sort of modeling, where as auctions do (to a degree).
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I did it in 2010 with Sidney Rice (PUP after hip surgery) and Vincent Jackson (holdout). The problem was, neither came back when expected and I lost a lot of games waiting for them. I made it to the playoffs though and they each posted solid games for me. I was a Knowshon Moreno injury away from a championship.
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thek1d wrote:I did it in 2010 with Sidney Rice (PUP after hip surgery) and Vincent Jackson (holdout). The problem was, neither came back when expected and I lost a lot of games waiting for them. I made it to the playoffs though and they each posted solid games for me. I was a Knowshon Moreno injury away from a championship.


Peyton Manning last year's another example

Injuries always have the potential for slow recovery, aggravation, etc. and there's always the possibility your discounted player may take longer to come around/come back for short while before going down again/or shut it down for the season even (i.e. Peyton 2011).

Guys facing suspensions w/ elite talent, or problems w/ the law, can be good discounts. Sure they may be boneheads, but at least you know they have elite talent when they're on the field (i.e. Dez Bryant). Unless their issues are uber criminal, you're only looking at a slap on the wrist for a few games tops.
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Great White Shark
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Another aspect is my league's foolish waiver system where the worst team gets priority each week without moving to the back of the line once you make a ww pickup. If you start very poorly, you can get the early season risers. That's another consideration . . . .
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hawkdogger wrote:Another aspect is my league's foolish waiver system where the worst team gets priority each week without moving to the back of the line once you make a ww pickup. If you start very poorly, you can get the early season risers. That's another consideration . . . .


I agree on this, if you're going to lose a game, it's better to lose your first game of the season than any other week.

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