FantasySharks.com

As I prepare for my money league draft... I've been mocking daily. I have noticed a hand full of players are being over-valued in drafts that I seriously doubt will preform to their ADP. Here goes...

Julio Jones - I'm a Falcons fan, live in Atlanta, and have seen Julio play some fantastic football. But... his ADP has shot up to early in the second round! Now, I do not doubt Julio's talent... what I do doubt is that Roddy White, Tony G, Harry Douglas and Quiz are going to be forgotten about in the Falcons Offense. I would rather have AJ Green, who is the lone deep threat for the Bengals, than Julio. And Green is being drafted in the late second to early third rounds.

Peyton Manning - One of the greatest of all time yes... breaking the top 10 in 2012 no. Currently being drafted ahead of guys like Rivers, Cutler, Schaub and Big Ben. Lets face it, even Peyton says "I'm not the same QB that I once was." Couple that with Denver's iffy o-line and injury potential... and you've got a risky situation. Manning won't play 16 games and will have an unusually high INT count. He's smart, but his arm strength is down and he's not mobile at all.

Doug Martin - Currently being drafted as high as the 3rd and 4th round... as a backup! Haha. Reach doesn't begine to describe whats going on here. Blount is the starter... both now and in week 1. Blount is reported to be in lighter and in better condition this year. Who do you think with get RZ carries? 220lb Martin or 250lb Blount? TB will be a run first team... until they begin getting shelled by the Falcons, Saints and Panthers for 6 out of 16 games. Martin will be lost in the mix unless Blount misses time with an injury.

Rob Gronkowski - Just a hunch, but it will be hard for him to repeat last years numbers. Currently being drafted in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. Ankle surgery during the off season and the fact that a lot of NFL teams will be copy-catting the Pats TE system... Bill Belichick is no fool, and will use last year's successful strategy as this years' "bait". I expect the Pats to go deeper down field this year with their WRs and pound the rock with Ridley/Vareen... all of the while using Gronk to keep D's in the middle of the field. Reducing Gronk's TDs from 17 to around 8-10. (Graham is the TE to own this year)

Ryan Mathews - Sure he's got talent, but he's as fragile as they come. RB is not the position for fragility and Mathews is the poster boy. This guy is not a first rounder and he will not play a full season. Mathews has a lot of supporters out there that say otherwise so let those guys make the mistake of drafting Mathews in the first round.

good insight, thanks. I do especially agree about Julio, but he is a supreme talent. Not sure how I feel about Gronk, but I do agree Jimmy is by far the one to own. Mathews, I agree. I will stay away from him personally but I wont be surprised if he does well before the inevitable injury. However, we said the same about reggie bush last year and he somehow survived.

Make it 6 and add Cam Newton to the list.

There's going to be some regression, and there's no way he matches the rushing TD total again. They'll use Williams and Stewart more (both guys are a bit underrated this year). Absolutely don't want him in the 2nd round, especially with Vick available a round later (or more in many leagues).

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"If you can't spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker."
-Mike McD, Rounders

DIsagree. Martin is the back to own and will be the starter. Blount even fumbles phone calls so how can he secure a ball?

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10-team .5 PPR League

Stafford
Charles, Mathews, Martin, Leshoure
White, Decker, V.Jax, Britt, D.Moore, Gordon
Gonzalez, Olsen

I agree with your thoughts on Julio Jones. I think someone over at Rotoworld just has a huge boner for him. How can you forget about Roddy White who's was the 5th highest scoring receiver in my league last year, #1 in 2010, and #9 in 2009. One team isn't likely to have two top 10 receivers. That's Arizona Cardinals circa 2008 production. So if you take Julio that high, you are either betting that the Falcons offense will be that good, or you're betting against Roddy White. I think it would be too bold to make either one of those predictions.

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Mmmmm.... Haley likey!

Good list there in the OP. I might throw Richardson in there, as well. In a redraft league, I just don't see it. If it were a dynasty thing, then for sure. But people are drafting this kid sometimes as their number 1 back, in a terrible (last year) and unproven (this year) offense. Best WR there is in just his second year, and the second best may be Gordon, who is even more unproven. Now with his knee getting scoped already (isn't that the 2nd time this offseason)... AND a rookie QB...

I just don't see it. Smells very familiar to the Mark Ingram hype (cue the "Saints spread the ball around too much" excuses).

great insight, i appreciate the write up. i've completed a ton of mock drafts on ffcalculater and the difference vs a yahoo or espn is substancial. i think what you see in ADPs from people that are fantasy crazy (us) typically know what it takes to build a great team, so we have a tendincey to inflate value umong ourselves. example, Cam is almost a lock for the 2nd round in FFCalc, but in yahoo he was there in mid 3rd/4th.

i've used FFcalc for a few years now and it certainly helps, as you have to know depth, however my real life league is closer to yahoo/espn (drafting).

I like Ingram this year.

_________________
"If you can't spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker."
-Mike McD, Rounders

Julio is easily a top 5 wr, they will goto him early and often. Hes one if the players whos measurables show up on the field. Roddy will finish the season as a wr 2.

I was referring to the god-like fantasy numbers being predicted by many, in his rookie season.
As is the case with the vast majority of rookies, expectations have come down closer to reality in his second season.
I like him this year, too, where he's being drafted. Last year, no thanks.

WasteOfTime - Thanks! Julio is a supreme talent... gotta love seeing him man-handle defesive backs in a Falcons jersey. But I think we're a year or two out from seeing him "peak" into Megatron 2.0

hard 10 - I'm on the fence with Cam. Yeah last year's numbers were insane for a rookie and teams won't be surprised by him this year... but damn if I've never seen anything like him. I was a nay-sayer on Cam before last season and I was wrong. I won't make that misake again this year. He could repeat or dare I say, continue to get better this year. It's very possible. Vick on the other hand can not be compared to Cam... Vick has less tools in his tool box than Cam. Vick has speed as a ball carrier, elusiveness and a decent arm... can't take the hits a ball carrier takes. Cam has speed, elusiveness, size, power, a strong arm, touch and showed good decision making in his rokie year.

I know you were, you just reminded me that he's a guy I'm targeting later in drafts, and there hasn't been much discussion of him.

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"If you can't spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker."
-Mike McD, Rounders

Yep, that's the opinion I keep hearing. I guess we'll see.

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Mmmmm.... Haley likey!

I've been eyeing Ingram as well too... he's be the man if it weren't for P. Thomas, who will be tough to unseat as a regular ball carrier for the Saints.

I wouldn't take Ingram as anything more than a #3, but preferably a #4 RB

Cam has a size advantage. Because of that, he might have a durability advantage.
But Vick's got every bit as much arm strength, along with a better supporting cast. I think we'll see his best season this year.

And I'm not knocking Newton as a player. I love his skills and potential long term, I just don't think his fantasy production this year will justify his draft position.

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"If you can't spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker."
-Mike McD, Rounders