As I prepare for my money league draft... I've been mocking daily. I have noticed a hand full of players are being over-valued in drafts that I seriously doubt will preform to their ADP. Here goes...
Julio Jones - I'm a Falcons fan, live in Atlanta, and have seen Julio play some fantastic football. But... his ADP has shot up to early in the second round! Now, I do not doubt Julio's talent... what I do doubt is that Roddy White, Tony G, Harry Douglas and Quiz are going to be forgotten about in the Falcons Offense. I would rather have AJ Green, who is the lone deep threat for the Bengals, than Julio. And Green is being drafted in the late second to early third rounds.
Peyton Manning - One of the greatest of all time yes... breaking the top 10 in 2012 no. Currently being drafted ahead of guys like Rivers, Cutler, Schaub and Big Ben. Lets face it, even Peyton says "I'm not the same QB that I once was." Couple that with Denver's iffy o-line and injury potential... and you've got a risky situation. Manning won't play 16 games and will have an unusually high INT count. He's smart, but his arm strength is down and he's not mobile at all.
Doug Martin - Currently being drafted as high as the 3rd and 4th round... as a backup! Haha. Reach doesn't begine to describe whats going on here. Blount is the starter... both now and in week 1. Blount is reported to be in lighter and in better condition this year. Who do you think with get RZ carries? 220lb Martin or 250lb Blount? TB will be a run first team... until they begin getting shelled by the Falcons, Saints and Panthers for 6 out of 16 games. Martin will be lost in the mix unless Blount misses time with an injury.
Rob Gronkowski - Just a hunch, but it will be hard for him to repeat last years numbers. Currently being drafted in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. Ankle surgery during the off season and the fact that a lot of NFL teams will be copy-catting the Pats TE system... Bill Belichick is no fool, and will use last year's successful strategy as this years' "bait". I expect the Pats to go deeper down field this year with their WRs and pound the rock with Ridley/Vareen... all of the while using Gronk to keep D's in the middle of the field. Reducing Gronk's TDs from 17 to around 8-10. (Graham is the TE to own this year)
Ryan Mathews - Sure he's got talent, but he's as fragile as they come. RB is not the position for fragility and Mathews is the poster boy. This guy is not a first rounder and he will not play a full season. Mathews has a lot of supporters out there that say otherwise so let those guys make the mistake of drafting Mathews in the first round.
great insight, i appreciate the write up. i've completed a ton of mock drafts on ffcalculater and the difference vs a yahoo or espn is substancial. i think what you see in ADPs from people that are fantasy crazy (us) typically know what it takes to build a great team, so we have a tendincey to inflate value umong ourselves. example, Cam is almost a lock for the 2nd round in FFCalc, but in yahoo he was there in mid 3rd/4th.
i've used FFcalc for a few years now and it certainly helps, as you have to know depth, however my real life league is closer to yahoo/espn (drafting).