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PostPosted: Sat 08.18.2012, 22:51 
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Blue Shark

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I know QBs are often popular to go in the first round and I know Brady/Brees are pure studs that have a chance at huge points. Normally if one is there at say pick 9 in the first, it'd be tempting to grab one.

But what do you think of the strategy of..OPTION A..passing on all of them (if avail) and grabbing a RB like MJD, Forte, Charles, then grabbing a Ryan/Phillips in the 6th? Compare this to OPTION B..grabbing Brady/Brees in the 1st then grabbing a lesser quality RB like Greene/Brown/Stewart in the 6th? Assume your 2nd through 5th picks are the same regardless of strategy.

Is it me or, based on typical projections (yes I know projections fluctuate like crazy), wouldn't the Forte/Ryan combo seem to outweigh a Brady/Stewart combo? i.e. add up the projected points for each combo and compare. Just wondering if others look at it like this? Add to the fact that if your 6th round pick goes down (Ryan in option A, Greene in option B), wouldn't it be easier to pick up a serviceable (not great but serviceable) QB than a serviceable RB? Yes, I know that's what the waiver wire is for but quite frankly in many leagues, it may be hard to grab a starting RB from the wire.

I'm sure this may have been discussed previously but I'm asking more for a unique situation (can start 2RB plus a flex, .5PPR)

I certainly don't go into a draft limiting myself to one strategy but if this option appears (Brady/Brees still there at 9), I want to be prepared for it.

Appreciate your thoughts..


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PostPosted: Sat 08.18.2012, 22:57 
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RB are thin this year, Im not that crazy about taking qbs early unless they get some ridiculous bonus points for yardage tiers. I went with option A last year and was the last to draft a qb. I ended up taking freeman in the 10th and stafford in the 11th. It worked out very nice! Although there is a point when there is just to much value to let them go by. Im sitting at 4 in a redraft and im kicking calvin or rodgers back and forth as we speak.

Good Luck!


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PostPosted: Sat 08.18.2012, 22:59 
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I agree. But ryan has started to go earlier then rivers now. He's turning into 4th round material. But I've been skipping on qbs in the first but id grab cam in the 2nd round..like at the 11th spot you can get a top RB and then Cam. Then from there id go RB WR.


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PostPosted: Sat 08.18.2012, 23:17 
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kevtudor wrote:
RB are thin this year, Im not that crazy about taking qbs early unless they get some ridiculous bonus points for yardage tiers. I went with option A last year and was the last to draft a qb. I ended up taking freeman in the 10th and stafford in the 11th. It worked out very nice! Although there is a point when there is just to much value to let them go by. Im sitting at 4 in a redraft and im kicking calvin or rodgers back and forth as we speak.

Good Luck!


Option A has always been my strategy, and it has almost always done me well. Even last year, the top teams in our league were NOT the ones with Rodgers, Brady, Brees. I would bet most leagues were the same. That tells me something. Based on all this, I say you take Calvin! Or CJ2K for that matter.. :D


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PostPosted: Sat 08.18.2012, 23:23 
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I think alot of it just depends on what kind of player you are and personally for me, I'm fine with playing the spit backs. One of the main reasons why I like spit backs is because they are not huge investments for such injury prone type players and further if they do happen to get injured then the guy that comes in as a back up may actually be better than the original starter. Take Felix Jones and Demarrco Murray for example(turned trash into gold). Taking a RB late may actually turn out to be the best move of the entire draft even if it is unintentional, I can't think of really any other position that it works out that way. If a top WR or QB goes down odds are the back up ain't near as good.


Last edited by Fantasy 247 on Sat 08.18.2012, 23:27, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sat 08.18.2012, 23:26 
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Blue Shark

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Killa CAM CAN!! wrote:
I agree. But ryan has started to go earlier then rivers now. He's turning into 4th round material. But I've been skipping on qbs in the first but id grab cam in the 2nd round..like at the 11th spot you can get a top RB and then Cam. Then from there id go RB WR.


Yes I have seen Ryan move up. Then I'd grab Rivers or someone similar. My point is that the dropoff from MJD/Forte to Shonn Greene seems a lot more than the dropoff from Brady to Rivers. Mainly b/c Rivers is a no brainer starter each week..the same can't be said for Greene or some of the other RBs in that 6th round.

I can't take Cam that high. Just couldn't do it.


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PostPosted: Sat 08.18.2012, 23:35 
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Fantasy 247 wrote:
I think alot of it just depends on what kind of player you are and personally for me, I'm fine with playing the spit backs. One of the main reasons why I like spit backs is because they are not huge investments for such injury prone type players and further if they do happen to get injured then the guy that comes in as a back up may actually be better than the original starter. Take Felix Jones and Demarrco Murray for example(turned trash into gold). Taking a RB late may actually turn out to be the best move of the entire draft even if it is unintentional, I can't think of really any other position that it works out that way. If a top WR or QB goes down odds are the back up ain't near as good.


That is a good point, but after my 2011 season (McFadden hurt, Best hurt, Wells hurt..my top 3 RBs killed me), I just don't want to go through the split backs again. Too much unknown. The Murray situation can indeed happen but for every one of those, it seems there are 5 situations where it's just a mess, and you never know who you can start each week.. last year in CAR, NEP, DET, GB, WAS, NYG to name a few.

With that said, I'd rather look at a situation where it's not as much a who will start each week (CAR, NEP, WAS) but more a situation where you may have a starter in the early season, but a different one who takes over later. But each is the every down back when they start. Think Kevin Smith starting the first couple games as an every down back but Leshoure taking over as the season goes on. Have both of them (later round picks) and you're solid. Or maybe in Denver, McGahee early in the season, Hillman later. Or in CAR, Wells early but Williams later. Know what I mean?

Or you can avoid a lot of that, and go RB early! :)

I agree backup QBs aren't as good, but there are often a bunch of serviceable QBs on the wire. The same can't be said for RB.


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PostPosted: Sat 08.18.2012, 23:42 
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The push to take QBs early has been driven by the unreliability of even top RBs. Last year Marshawn Lynch may have been available in the 6th. It's more likely that a top 5 back will come from the mid rounds than a top 5 QB. The other issue is that top QBs are scoring so many points right now. The gap between #3 & #9 is huge. I'm 75% certain that Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Stafford (if healthy) will be top 5 QBs this year. I'm 100% certain that I can't name 4 of the top 5 RBs. No way I'd let Brady or Brees go by if the top 3 & CJ1K & Megatron are gone.

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PostPosted: Sat 08.18.2012, 23:45 
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Its kind of like you took that Shonn Greene in the 6th round and he is putting up ok production and only getting a TD once every 3 games or so. Well, after about 6 weeks of spit back living up to it, your praying for those knees to give out so the back up can come in.


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PostPosted: Sun 08.19.2012, 00:09 
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usch8r wrote:
The push to take QBs early has been driven by the unreliability of even top RBs. Last year Marshawn Lynch may have been available in the 6th. It's more likely that a top 5 back will come from the mid rounds than a top 5 QB. The other issue is that top QBs are scoring so many points right now. The gap between #3 & #9 is huge. I'm 75% certain that Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Stafford (if healthy) will be top 5 QBs this year. I'm 100% certain that I can't name 4 of the top 5 RBs. No way I'd let Brady or Brees go by if the top 3 & CJ1K & Megatron are gone.


Good points. Matt Berry pointed out this.. Last year, "six quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 finished the season as top-10 guys. Over the past three years, only 16 of 30 (53 percent) of the running backs drafted in the top 10 at their position finished the season as such". I can see that rationale.

Yes Lynch was a mid round pick last year. So was Sproles. So were McFadden and Forte the year before and they finished top 10. But it's hard to know which of those to grab.

I agree the gap between #3QB and #9QB is huge, but so is the gap between the #3 RB and any other RB you MAY be lucky to grab off the waiver wire. If you can even find a starter. No? Bottomline, I don't need a top 5 RB from my 1st or 2nd pick. I just want one that I can start without worry each week.


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PostPosted: Sun 08.19.2012, 01:37 
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Well here's the way I look at it. If you draft a Brees or Brady early and they go down can you recover? I think it's far more easier to replace a RB you drafted in the 1st round than it is replacing a QB like Brady or Brees. Unless your later picks work out you're going to be thin at a certain position because you drafted that QB there. I still fully believe the RB/RB strategy is the key to success and I believe it even more so because most drafters go after QB's and WR's now with early picks. If you can get 2 stud RB's you are set, period! I was taught to do opposite of what everyone else is doing so while people are drafting the Calvin's and Brees' of the world I'm going to scoop all the RB's and watch them scramble when they look at their cheat sheet and realize their #2 RB is going to be a guy who isn't even guaranteed more than 50% of playing time.

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PostPosted: Sun 08.19.2012, 06:55 
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It will always depend on the scoring system in your league. Our league gives way too many points to QBs, so you had better grab a top tier guy, or you are behind the 8-ball in half of your match-ups before the ball is snapped. Also, we do a standard draft, not a snake draft.

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PostPosted: Sun 08.19.2012, 07:04 
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ATL Souljah Boy wrote:
Well here's the way I look at it. If you draft a Brees or Brady early and they go down can you recover? I think it's far more easier to replace a RB you drafted in the 1st round than it is replacing a QB like Brady or Brees. Unless your later picks work out you're going to be thin at a certain position because you drafted that QB there. I still fully believe the RB/RB strategy is the key to success and I believe it even more so because most drafters go after QB's and WR's now with early picks. If you can get 2 stud RB's you are set, period! I was taught to do opposite of what everyone else is doing so while people are drafting the Calvin's and Brees' of the world I'm going to scoop all the RB's and watch them scramble when they look at their cheat sheet and realize their #2 RB is going to be a guy who isn't even guaranteed more than 50% of playing time.

The thing is if you take Brees then you still have action at a backfield of lynch mcgahee and martin...


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PostPosted: Sun 08.19.2012, 07:15 
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ATL Souljah Boy wrote:
Well here's the way I look at it. If you draft a Brees or Brady early and they go down can you recover? I think it's far more easier to replace a RB you drafted in the 1st round than it is replacing a QB like Brady or Brees. Unless your later picks work out you're going to be thin at a certain position because you drafted that QB there. I still fully believe the RB/RB strategy is the key to success and I believe it even more so because most drafters go after QB's and WR's now with early picks. If you can get 2 stud RB's you are set, period! I was taught to do opposite of what everyone else is doing so while people are drafting the Calvin's and Brees' of the world I'm going to scoop all the RB's and watch them scramble when they look at their cheat sheet and realize their #2 RB is going to be a guy who isn't even guaranteed more than 50% of playing time.


That's a good way to look at it. Usually I'd be RB/RB no problem, but this year the RBs that are probably available at that 9 spot (our league goes RB heavy every year so I expect the big 3, CJ, DMC to be gone) are, according to ADP, likely Forte (I'd be OK with that if he's there), MJD (not signed), Charles (off the ACL), AP (off the ACL), and Murray is not avail since a keeper. So really, the availability gets thin in my opinion. Yes there's always a risk at RB, but this year at that spot, the risks seem unusually high. Know what I mean? If not one of them, who else could you grab there? Is someone really going to use a #9 overall to grab Lynch, Steven Jackson etc.? Doubtful. And then folks say, well how about Graham, or Gronk, or Julio Jones? But they are all keepers and not available. So it's one of those RBs or Brady/Brees..

It just seems like a tough spot at 9, at least in my league.


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PostPosted: Sun 08.19.2012, 07:48 
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boonerdan wrote:
It will always depend on the scoring system in your league. Our league gives way too many points to QBs, so you had better grab a top tier guy, or you are behind the 8-ball in half of your match-ups before the ball is snapped. Also, we do a standard draft, not a snake draft.


Agree. We only use 3pts per TD throw and no bonuses, so even though QBs do get the most out of all positions, it's not as high as many leagues I've seen.


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