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PostPosted: Tue 08.21.2012, 18:36 
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Interesting article i ran into..everyone knows it, but nice to see it written down.


Quote:
Browns RB buyer beware!

While we all agree that Richardson is an amazing talent, one still has to remember that he’s entering a tough situation in Cleveland, where defenses will be able to stack the box against him. So I thought it would be interesting to take a quick look back to see who the expected top rookie running back was in the draft, and then who the top rookie running back ended up being in Fantasy play.


Highest ADP Rookie RBs vs. Highest Scoring Rookie RBs

Average Draft Position taken from MyFantasyLeague.com

2002 Highest ADP: 4.08 William Green, CLE | Best RB: 5.08 Clinton Portis, DEN
2003 Highest ADP: 7.02 Onterrio Smith, MIN | Best RB: Domanick Williams, HOU
2004 Highest ADP: 4.05 Kevin Jones, DET | Best RB: Kevin Jones, DET
2005 Highest ADP: 4.12 Cadillac Williams, TB | Best RB: Cadillac Williams, TB
2006 Highest ADP: 3.01 Reggie Bush, NO | Best RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC
2007 Highest ADP: 4.12 Adrian Peterson, MIN | Best RB: Adrian Peterson, MIN
2008 Highest ADP: 4.04 Darren McFadden, OAK | Best RB: Matt Forte, CHI
2009 Highest ADP: 6.05 Knowshon Moreno, DEN | Best RB: Knowshon Moreno, DEN
2010 Highest ADP: 1.10 Ryan Mathews, SD | Best RB: LeGarrette Blount, TB
2011 Highest ADP: 5.07 Mark Ingram, NO | Best RB: DeMarco Murray, DAL

So over the past decade, the first rookie running back drafted in Fantasy leagues has ended up as the top rookie running back at the end of the season just FOUR times. That means Richardson, the rookie out of Alabama, has a 40-percent chance of being the highest-scoring rookie running back this season. ( based on the last 10 years as a model) Granted, he could still meet everyone’s expectations/projections, but have another rookie outperform him, which still means he’s successful even though he’s no longer the top rookie running back. So keep that in mind.


Personally i think Doug Martin may have the better rookie year..a toss up for me. IN the long run..with health assumed and that's a big if, Richardson for me.

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PostPosted: Tue 08.21.2012, 18:44 
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Take care in questioning TRich. People are fierce, haha.

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QB:Brees
RB:Foster,,Miller,Wilson,Blount,J.Bell,Ellington,Tate
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QB:Newton
RB:TRich,Forte,R.Bush,Woodhead,Blount
WR:Welker,Wayne,Gordon,Nicks,Shorts,Tompkins
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PostPosted: Tue 08.21.2012, 19:46 
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2012 Highest ADP: 2.03 Trent Richardson, CLE | Best RB: Doug Martin, TBB

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PostPosted: Tue 08.21.2012, 20:29 
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PostPosted: Wed 08.22.2012, 00:14 
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Fighting Amish wrote:
Interesting article i ran into..everyone knows it, but nice to see it written down.


Quote:
Browns RB buyer beware!

While we all agree that Richardson is an amazing talent, one still has to remember that he’s entering a tough situation in Cleveland, where defenses will be able to stack the box against him. So I thought it would be interesting to take a quick look back to see who the expected top rookie running back was in the draft, and then who the top rookie running back ended up being in Fantasy play.


Highest ADP Rookie RBs vs. Highest Scoring Rookie RBs

Average Draft Position taken from MyFantasyLeague.com

2002 Highest ADP: 4.08 William Green, CLE | Best RB: 5.08 Clinton Portis, DEN
2003 Highest ADP: 7.02 Onterrio Smith, MIN | Best RB: Domanick Williams, HOU
2004 Highest ADP: 4.05 Kevin Jones, DET | Best RB: Kevin Jones, DET
2005 Highest ADP: 4.12 Cadillac Williams, TB | Best RB: Cadillac Williams, TB
2006 Highest ADP: 3.01 Reggie Bush, NO | Best RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC
2007 Highest ADP: 4.12 Adrian Peterson, MIN | Best RB: Adrian Peterson, MIN
2008 Highest ADP: 4.04 Darren McFadden, OAK | Best RB: Matt Forte, CHI
2009 Highest ADP: 6.05 Knowshon Moreno, DEN | Best RB: Knowshon Moreno, DEN
2010 Highest ADP: 1.10 Ryan Mathews, SD | Best RB: LeGarrette Blount, TB
2011 Highest ADP: 5.07 Mark Ingram, NO | Best RB: DeMarco Murray, DAL

So over the past decade, the first rookie running back drafted in Fantasy leagues has ended up as the top rookie running back at the end of the season just FOUR times. That means Richardson, the rookie out of Alabama, has a 40-percent chance of being the highest-scoring rookie running back this season. ( based on the last 10 years as a model) Granted, he could still meet everyone’s expectations/projections, but have another rookie outperform him, which still means he’s successful even though he’s no longer the top rookie running back. So keep that in mind.


Personally i think Doug Martin may have the better rookie year..a toss up for me. IN the long run..with health assumed and that's a big if, Richardson for me.


Good stuff Amish. Of course the picture may be clearer if we knew how high "busts" like McFadden,Bush, and Matthews ended up in the rankings. Seems like those 3 guys may have all justified their ADP as rookies. Some could say that picking that #1 ADP back gives you a 70% chance of landing a top 2 rookie and a top 15-20 back. But then again, I have been into the Whities. :lol: :Drink)

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PostPosted: Wed 08.22.2012, 00:19 
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40%

I like those odds


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PostPosted: Wed 08.22.2012, 00:21 
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So if I follow the logic, then Doug Martin then has a 60% chance of being the best rookie RB this season?

I would assume it's between just those 2 pretty much


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PostPosted: Wed 08.22.2012, 00:30 
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endzoneview wrote:
40%

I like those odds


I know right. RB turnover from year to year is 50%. Not that big of a difference.

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PostPosted: Wed 08.22.2012, 00:44 
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bluemist wrote:
Fighting Amish wrote:
Interesting article i ran into..everyone knows it, but nice to see it written down.


Quote:
Browns RB buyer beware!

While we all agree that Richardson is an amazing talent, one still has to remember that he’s entering a tough situation in Cleveland, where defenses will be able to stack the box against him. So I thought it would be interesting to take a quick look back to see who the expected top rookie running back was in the draft, and then who the top rookie running back ended up being in Fantasy play.


Highest ADP Rookie RBs vs. Highest Scoring Rookie RBs

Average Draft Position taken from MyFantasyLeague.com

2002 Highest ADP: 4.08 William Green, CLE | Best RB: 5.08 Clinton Portis, DEN
2003 Highest ADP: 7.02 Onterrio Smith, MIN | Best RB: Domanick Williams, HOU
2004 Highest ADP: 4.05 Kevin Jones, DET | Best RB: Kevin Jones, DET
2005 Highest ADP: 4.12 Cadillac Williams, TB | Best RB: Cadillac Williams, TB
2006 Highest ADP: 3.01 Reggie Bush, NO | Best RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC
2007 Highest ADP: 4.12 Adrian Peterson, MIN | Best RB: Adrian Peterson, MIN
2008 Highest ADP: 4.04 Darren McFadden, OAK | Best RB: Matt Forte, CHI
2009 Highest ADP: 6.05 Knowshon Moreno, DEN | Best RB: Knowshon Moreno, DEN
2010 Highest ADP: 1.10 Ryan Mathews, SD | Best RB: LeGarrette Blount, TB
2011 Highest ADP: 5.07 Mark Ingram, NO | Best RB: DeMarco Murray, DAL

So over the past decade, the first rookie running back drafted in Fantasy leagues has ended up as the top rookie running back at the end of the season just FOUR times. That means Richardson, the rookie out of Alabama, has a 40-percent chance of being the highest-scoring rookie running back this season. ( based on the last 10 years as a model) Granted, he could still meet everyone’s expectations/projections, but have another rookie outperform him, which still means he’s successful even though he’s no longer the top rookie running back. So keep that in mind.


Personally i think Doug Martin may have the better rookie year..a toss up for me. IN the long run..with health assumed and that's a big if, Richardson for me.


Good stuff Amish. Of course the picture may be clearer if we knew how high "busts" like McFadden,Bush, and Matthews ended up in the rankings. Seems like those 3 guys may have all justified their ADP as rookies. Some could say that picking that #1 ADP back gives you a 70% chance of landing a top 2 rookie and a top 15-20 back. But then again, I have been into the Whities. :lol: :Drink)


great point. I'd have to look closer for that info, but it would be nice to use to compare...and i like your attitude..you still end up ok. In the only dyno league where i have first pick, I went with Trich..becasue damn..ill admit it..Ive got a mean mancrush on this dude. Really excited we have an identity..along with anew (older) promising hard throwing qb and some nice young wr talent and an o-line getting better. Portents of good things to come..maybe..but at least we have some concrete reality to lean on for optimism. Speaking of that..i love having Chilly as an OC..it's his best position, his art of expertise. Things are really looking up. Now, we need to stay healthy because there is zero depth.

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PostPosted: Wed 08.22.2012, 05:30 
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I found this article while doing some research early in the summer. Some good information and well researched.
I know it is not quite along the same line as the article Amish posted, but it is definitely relative.

*Disclaimer* - Not sure if I am allowed to post a link to another site. Mods do what you will.

http://www.thehuddle.com/2012/articles/ ... -backs.php


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PostPosted: Wed 08.22.2012, 06:49 
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sflow_98 wrote:
I found this article while doing some research early in the summer. Some good information and well researched.
I know it is not quite along the same line as the article Amish posted, but it is definitely relative.

*Disclaimer* - Not sure if I am allowed to post a link to another site. Mods do what you will.

http://www.thehuddle.com/2012/articles/ ... -backs.php


everyone has done it at one time or a hundred..no worries man. you're cool, and i like your takes on things as well, another reason i can care less, good stuff :Drink)

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PostPosted: Wed 08.22.2012, 07:15 
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sflow_98 wrote:
I found this article while doing some research early in the summer. Some good information and well researched.
I know it is not quite along the same line as the article Amish posted, but it is definitely relative.

*Disclaimer* - Not sure if I am allowed to post a link to another site. Mods do what you will.

http://www.thehuddle.com/2012/articles/ ... -backs.php


Another good post with relative information. =D> Something that stood out to me was that Bush --Listed as a "bust"--ended up #7 overall in scoring. MJD ended as top 5,so while Reggie Kardasian didn't mean you were drafting the top rookie RB, what you did get was a top 10 back. McFragile was easily top ten before his injury, with Forte ending #1 overall. Mathews falls in the same "stud top 10 RB before injury" category. Maybe the raw data, when analyzed closer, shows the exact opposite of what the original article would suggest? :-k :-k

This type of info is why I LOVE the Tank. Thinking outside the box, not just accepting what the sheep are fed by the media. This is also when I miss Sean the most. He could have broken this data down like a fraction and have fantasy websites copying his research. R.I.P. Brother!!

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PostPosted: Wed 08.22.2012, 08:08 
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This type of info is why I LOVE the Tank. Thinking outside the box, not just accepting what the sheep are fed by the media. This is also when I miss Sean the most. He could have broken this data down like a fraction and have fantasy websites copying his research. R.I.P. Brother!!


very true my man! :Drink)

A Guinness no less.

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