Interesting article i ran into..everyone knows it, but nice to see it written down.
Browns RB buyer beware!
While we all agree that Richardson is an amazing talent, one still has to remember that he’s entering a tough situation in Cleveland, where defenses will be able to stack the box against him. So I thought it would be interesting to take a quick look back to see who the expected top rookie running back was in the draft, and then who the top rookie running back ended up being in Fantasy play.
Highest ADP Rookie RBs vs. Highest Scoring Rookie RBs
Average Draft Position taken from MyFantasyLeague.com
2002 Highest ADP: 4.08 William Green, CLE | Best RB: 5.08 Clinton Portis, DEN
2003 Highest ADP: 7.02 Onterrio Smith, MIN | Best RB: Domanick Williams, HOU
2004 Highest ADP: 4.05 Kevin Jones, DET | Best RB: Kevin Jones, DET
2005 Highest ADP: 4.12 Cadillac Williams, TB | Best RB: Cadillac Williams, TB
2006 Highest ADP: 3.01 Reggie Bush, NO | Best RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC
2007 Highest ADP: 4.12 Adrian Peterson, MIN | Best RB: Adrian Peterson, MIN
2008 Highest ADP: 4.04 Darren McFadden, OAK | Best RB: Matt Forte, CHI
2009 Highest ADP: 6.05 Knowshon Moreno, DEN | Best RB: Knowshon Moreno, DEN
2010 Highest ADP: 1.10 Ryan Mathews, SD | Best RB: LeGarrette Blount, TB
2011 Highest ADP: 5.07 Mark Ingram, NO | Best RB: DeMarco Murray, DAL
So over the past decade, the first rookie running back drafted in Fantasy leagues has ended up as the top rookie running back at the end of the season just FOUR times. That means Richardson, the rookie out of Alabama, has a 40-percent chance of being the highest-scoring rookie running back this season. ( based on the last 10 years as a model) Granted, he could still meet everyone’s expectations/projections, but have another rookie outperform him, which still means he’s successful even though he’s no longer the top rookie running back. So keep that in mind.
Personally i think Doug Martin may have the better rookie year..a toss up for me. IN the long run..with health assumed and that's a big if, Richardson for me.
"It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future."