ADP "practice" draft

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Chum
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I just printed out the latest ADP numbers for my 10-team PPR league. I then did a mock based on who would be available at my 7th pick for each round. I'm going into my draft tonight with a "wait-on-a-RB" strategy. I want to get a Top 5 QB, Top 2 TE and 3 of the Top 20 WR's out there....and then I'll trust my ability to get a serviceable #1 RB and find a diamond in the rough later at the position. Let me know what you think if you have the time...Thx.

QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, K, D and Flex (Flex position is the Q,R,W,TE on our bench who scores the most points).

QB: Brees, Rivers (#3 and #7 in my projections)
RB: R. Bush, Stewart, Jennings, M. Bush, J. Rodgers (Bush/Stewart are #'s 10 and 20)
WR: Welker, Colston, S. Johnson, Amendola, K. Wright (Top 3 are 3rd, 10th and 16th)
TE: Gronkowski, Celek (#2 and 12)
K: Scobee, Zuerlein
D: Bears, Rams

I got Rivers in the 7th Round (great value), Stewart in the 8th. Other options at RB in the 7th would have been K. Smith, Benson or Tate. Would you have gone of those RB's there and then picked up Cutler with the next pick?
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I'm still looking at the babe putting on her pants. Did you ask a question?
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Chum
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gballs1 wrote:I'm still looking at the babe putting on her pants. Did you ask a question?


Isn't that middle "bounce" magnificent?
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Masd71 wrote:
gballs1 wrote:I'm still looking at the babe putting on her pants. Did you ask a question?


Isn't that middle "bounce" magnificent?


Welcome to the tank! =D>
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SCS Wolfpack

Bortles, Roethlisberger
DeAngelo, C. West, Hill, Ware
Dez, Diggs, J. Brown, Martavis
Watson, Rodgers
Bailey, Hopkins
Broncos, Seahawks

12-team / .5PPR / 1QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 DST
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uuuuuuuum sure
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Luck, Winston
Forte, Gore, Miller
Cobb, Marshall, M Bryant, Decker, T Smith
Kelce, M Bennett
Vinatairi, Nugent
Arizona, Carolina
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That gif is as old as the internet, yet still, I'm unable to read more than two words that you wrote. I'm sure the rest of it was insightful and thought-provoking though.
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.5PPR
QB:Ben,Dalton,Taylor
RB:Lewis,Gore,L.Murray,M.Jones,Andrews,Michael,D.Cobb
WR:A.Brown,ODB,Green,J.Brown
TE:Olsen,Gates

PPR
QB:Brady
RB:AP,Hyde,CJA,Ellington,Riddick
WR:Sanders,J.Jones,Maclin,J.Brown,Jeffery
TE:Clay
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I had only scrolled just enough to read the text...had some comments ready...scrolled further down to post...saw gif...forgot all comments.
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Bottom-Dweller League 34 10-3 Lost in Finals
QB Stafford, Rivers
RB L Bell, L Murray, Gio, Denard
WR Wallace, G Tate, Martavis, Vjax
TE Julius, Fleener
K Barth
DEF Rams

Griffmo wrote:the allure of the unknown potential vs the available mediocrity
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Personally, I would take K Smith over Stewart since I think he'll be more valuable early and can possibly be trade bait while I dont think much of Stewart again this year. Benson is still a wild card to me. Tate is a lottery ticket and that feels awful early for him. I probably would have taken Rivers over all them though as you did and use it as a package later to downgrade the backup QB.

A word of caution on your projections, as I do not see Bush close to 10 (unless he happens to stay healthy and 5-10 backs ahead of him all get hurt for a stretch). Stewart at 20 is even more hard to see. I think he'll be lucky to crack top 30. For the WRs, Welker is likely not to break 120 catches nor 11-12 ypc (will be back to old routes with Lloyd/Brach running the deeper routes). And those TDs won't be there either. I just don't see 110-1200-6 as 3rd best. Colston is good there. Stevie could get there too.

Something has to break right for your RBs (which was your point) and I don't see it here at the moment unless MJD stays out or is traded. But if you can package Rivers and/or possibly Stevie or Amendola once ppl see he's putting up 6 catches a game for a solid back...you should be in a good position. It's a boom/bust strategy that with some cleverness can dominate.
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Bottom-Dweller League 34 10-3 Lost in Finals
QB Stafford, Rivers
RB L Bell, L Murray, Gio, Denard
WR Wallace, G Tate, Martavis, Vjax
TE Julius, Fleener
K Barth
DEF Rams

Griffmo wrote:the allure of the unknown potential vs the available mediocrity
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FantasyTom wrote:Personally, I would take K Smith over Stewart since I think he'll be more valuable early and can possibly be trade bait while I dont think much of Stewart again this year. Benson is still a wild card to me. Tate is a lottery ticket and that feels awful early for him. I probably would have taken Rivers over all them though as you did and use it as a package later to downgrade the backup QB.

A word of caution on your projections, as I do not see Bush close to 10 (unless he happens to stay healthy and 5-10 backs ahead of him all get hurt for a stretch). Stewart at 20 is even more hard to see. I think he'll be lucky to crack top 30. For the WRs, Welker is likely not to break 120 catches nor 11-12 ypc (will be back to old routes with Lloyd/Brach running the deeper routes). And those TDs won't be there either. I just don't see 110-1200-6 as 3rd best. Colston is good there. Stevie could get there too.

Something has to break right for your RBs (which was your point) and I don't see it here at the moment unless MJD stays out or is traded. But if you can package Rivers and/or possibly Stevie or Amendola once ppl see he's putting up 6 catches a game for a solid back...you should be in a good position. It's a boom/bust strategy that with some cleverness can dominate.


Stewart finished 19th in 1PPR leagues last year.

I think I'd rather have Cutler + Smith over Rivers + Stewart. I think the difference between Rivers and Cutler this year is going to be marginal where as the difference between Smith and Stewart, barring an injury to someone in the CAR backfield, might be the difference between a RB2 and RB3.

Welker will revert back to 09 numbers.

If both Colston and Stevie are healthy they are good for a state line close to 80/1000/8.
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I like your analysis SameSong I agree with all of that. And projecting Welker as the 3rd best WR could hurt you. And the chicks incredible.
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SameSongNDance wrote:
FantasyTom wrote:Personally, I would take K Smith over Stewart since I think he'll be more valuable early and can possibly be trade bait while I dont think much of Stewart again this year. Benson is still a wild card to me. Tate is a lottery ticket and that feels awful early for him. I probably would have taken Rivers over all them though as you did and use it as a package later to downgrade the backup QB.

A word of caution on your projections, as I do not see Bush close to 10 (unless he happens to stay healthy and 5-10 backs ahead of him all get hurt for a stretch). Stewart at 20 is even more hard to see. I think he'll be lucky to crack top 30. For the WRs, Welker is likely not to break 120 catches nor 11-12 ypc (will be back to old routes with Lloyd/Brach running the deeper routes). And those TDs won't be there either. I just don't see 110-1200-6 as 3rd best. Colston is good there. Stevie could get there too.

Something has to break right for your RBs (which was your point) and I don't see it here at the moment unless MJD stays out or is traded. But if you can package Rivers and/or possibly Stevie or Amendola once ppl see he's putting up 6 catches a game for a solid back...you should be in a good position. It's a boom/bust strategy that with some cleverness can dominate.


Stewart finished 19th in 1PPR leagues last year.

I think I'd rather have Cutler + Smith over Rivers + Stewart. I think the difference between Rivers and Cutler this year is going to be marginal where as the difference between Smith and Stewart, barring an injury to someone in the CAR backfield, might be the difference between a RB2 and RB3.

Welker will revert back to 09 numbers.

If both Colston and Stevie are healthy they are good for a state line close to 80/1000/8.

If we were playing fantasy football 2011, I'd take back what I said about Stewart :P I was stretching it some as I have him in the 26-32 range...but that assumes 16 GP and similar role to last year. With Dwilly, Cam, and now Tolbert there...I just don't see him improving on last year. Not for lack of talent but lack of touches. Guys who finished behind him last year that will finish ahead of him this year: McGahee, Gore?, Murray, DMC, Charles, D Brown....maybe Hillis, KSmith....chance with Quizz, Spiller, Benson.

I can see the argument there with Cutler/Smith vs Rivers/Stewart, but it takes on a lot of assumption on the health and reliability of Smith and that tenuous RB situation. Don't get me wrong, I was a huge advocate for Smith last year and have been all offseason/preseason. But to think Cutler and Rivers are close is just foolish. Getting Marshall/Jeffery and utilizing Davis more will help his numbers a little but will most likely affect his efficiency more than anything. Expecting more than 3600 yds and 24 TDs is dangerous. Rivers on the other hand is more in the 4500 yd 30 TD category; starkly different.
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Bottom-Dweller League 34 10-3 Lost in Finals
QB Stafford, Rivers
RB L Bell, L Murray, Gio, Denard
WR Wallace, G Tate, Martavis, Vjax
TE Julius, Fleener
K Barth
DEF Rams

Griffmo wrote:the allure of the unknown potential vs the available mediocrity
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Never in one post have I seen such a strong back. You'll need it to help carry those two big time wideouts. Thats an upper tier tight end if I ever seen one too. This has Dynasty written all over it. Dang, I forgot your question.
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FantasyTom wrote:
SameSongNDance wrote:
FantasyTom wrote:Personally, I would take K Smith over Stewart since I think he'll be more valuable early and can possibly be trade bait while I dont think much of Stewart again this year. Benson is still a wild card to me. Tate is a lottery ticket and that feels awful early for him. I probably would have taken Rivers over all them though as you did and use it as a package later to downgrade the backup QB.

A word of caution on your projections, as I do not see Bush close to 10 (unless he happens to stay healthy and 5-10 backs ahead of him all get hurt for a stretch). Stewart at 20 is even more hard to see. I think he'll be lucky to crack top 30. For the WRs, Welker is likely not to break 120 catches nor 11-12 ypc (will be back to old routes with Lloyd/Brach running the deeper routes). And those TDs won't be there either. I just don't see 110-1200-6 as 3rd best. Colston is good there. Stevie could get there too.

Something has to break right for your RBs (which was your point) and I don't see it here at the moment unless MJD stays out or is traded. But if you can package Rivers and/or possibly Stevie or Amendola once ppl see he's putting up 6 catches a game for a solid back...you should be in a good position. It's a boom/bust strategy that with some cleverness can dominate.


Stewart finished 19th in 1PPR leagues last year.

I think I'd rather have Cutler + Smith over Rivers + Stewart. I think the difference between Rivers and Cutler this year is going to be marginal where as the difference between Smith and Stewart, barring an injury to someone in the CAR backfield, might be the difference between a RB2 and RB3.

Welker will revert back to 09 numbers.

If both Colston and Stevie are healthy they are good for a state line close to 80/1000/8.

If we were playing fantasy football 2011, I'd take back what I said about Stewart :P I was stretching it some as I have him in the 26-32 range...but that assumes 16 GP and similar role to last year. With Dwilly, Cam, and now Tolbert there...I just don't see him improving on last year. Not for lack of talent but lack of touches. Guys who finished behind him last year that will finish ahead of him this year: McGahee, Gore?, Murray, DMC, Charles, D Brown....maybe Hillis, KSmith....chance with Quizz, Spiller, Benson.

I can see the argument there with Cutler/Smith vs Rivers/Stewart, but it takes on a lot of assumption on the health and reliability of Smith and that tenuous RB situation. Don't get me wrong, I was a huge advocate for Smith last year and have been all offseason/preseason. But to think Cutler and Rivers are close is just foolish. Getting Marshall/Jeffery and utilizing Davis more will help his numbers a little but will most likely affect his efficiency more than anything. Expecting more than 3600 yds and 24 TDs is dangerous. Rivers on the other hand is more in the 4500 yd 30 TD category; starkly different.


Cutler has literally had no one to throw to during his time in CHI thus far, no one. Now all of a sudden, he's arguably surrounded by more talent than in 08 when he threw for 4500 yards. I agree with Rivers, he's finished top 10 since 09 and there's no doubt he will again but I foresee Cutler creeping back into the top 10 himself this year. Sure, the O-line is still shoddy at best but they have made efforts to protect him (eliminating the 7-step drop). If he can hold up this season IMHO he'll be one of the QB steals of the draft (8th roundish)
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I think you guys have a point on expecting Top 3 numbers from Welker. Coming back to me in the third round, he looked like a strong pick. I took projections from four websites (based on my league's scoring rules) and then made a "consensus" average for each player. Site one ranked him 5th while the other three have him ranked 2nd, 4th and 2nd (Sharks) with an average projection of 278 points. My top 5 picks with that mock were Brees, Gronk, Welker, Colston and Reggie B...while a second mock saw the first 5 picks line up as Brees, Andre J (I like him for 90, 1300, 9), Bradshaw and Colston (with Vernon Davis being my TE picked in the 6th).

3 hours til draft time.....
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