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There are two types of Fantasy Football Owners: Sharks and Chum, which are you?
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 Post subject: Pair or Beware?
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 03:56 
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HammerHead Shark
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For me, there's nothing like landing a top-tier QB/WR combo to kick-off a new fantasy season. I still remember in '09 when the Broncos fan in my main league huffed after I snagged Welker in the second, checked him off of his list, looked up at the draft board, realized that I had taken Brady in the first and snapped his head back around at me with an open mouth as if I had just cheated. Smugness emanated from every pore of my being. Last year I paired the mighty Andre Johnson with a sneaky high-upside pick in Matt Schaub. So it goes.

Grabbing an elite pair is something not easily done. It takes planning, back-up planning and backing-up your back-up plan planning. It also takes an acute knowledge of the other owners in your league so that you can gauge what is realistic and what is merely fantasy ( :roll: ).

I want to know if there are any owners in the Tank that attempt this. If there are, I want to hear your thoughts on what tandem you're going after and how you're planning on acquiring them. Here are my top 5 (PPR, 6pt PassTD, Serpentine Draft):

1) Calvin Johnson (1.6-1.8 ) and Matt Stafford (2.4-2.6). I predict that Calvin will go around 1.6 and I know that Stafford wouldn't last another twelve picks, so I'd have to get a later pick before I even thought about attempting this one. Really, just wishful thinking.

2) Tom Brady (1.7-1.10) and Wes Welker (2.2-2.5). I know that a lot of people would say that 2.2 is too high for Welker. I don't disagree, especially with Welker's normally low TD numbers and Gronkowski (whom I'll get to later), Hernandez and Lloyd getting their share of looks. But the floor on this combo is still extremely high in PPR and actually getting this combo is realistic.

3) Drew Brees (1.10-2.2) and Jimmy Graham (1.10-2.2). While I'm not overly excited about a new play-caller in NO, this combo is lethal and attainable with a late round position. A small regression is almost inevitable, but even a mild regression would result in a massive combo.

4) Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski (2.2-2.5). Hernandez may be getting all the hype, but I still see Gronk as an absolute nightmare for small DB's. 75 rec., 2000 yds. and 20+ TD's (combined) is entirely realistic.

5) Aaron Rodgers (1.1) and Jordy Nelson (2.10-2.12). Tons of TD's, high-volume offense and a few rushing TD's? Count me in. The only problem is getting that first overall spot...

Sleeper) Jay Cutler (7.0-8.12) and Brandon Marshall (2.8-3.8 ). Though Jay Cutler has a much lower floor than any of the big four QB's, his upside this season is at its highest since he's been in Chicago. Marshall is a big red-zone target and can shed tacklers with the best of 'em.


Last edited by phoggydawg on Tue 08.28.2012, 07:02, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Pair or Beware?
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 04:10 
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Leopard Shark
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It looks like you spent a lot of time writing that, well done. I have never gone out of my way to attain or avoid pairs personally. I imagine that it is exciting watching your QB throw the long bomb TD to your TE, but it seems like a strat that would hamstring you longterm. I just VBD, do my homework and win.


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 Post subject: Re: Pair or Beware?
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 04:12 
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Whale Shark
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In our league we try to STOP this dead in it's tracks with all of our being. For instance, Friday night the guy picked Brady 3rd and the guy who picked Rice 4th came back down with Welker.

So it goes.

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M Ball, A Ellington, CJ Spiller
C Johnson, V Jackson, T Smith, M Wallace, R Randle
C Clay, H Miller
N Freese, C Parkey
Carolina, Cincinatti


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 Post subject: Re: Pair or Beware?
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 04:21 
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If I had my way I'd love to have Stafford/Calvin. Great QB and absolute freak of nature receiver. Don't think that can be matched. Not even Brees or Brady paired with their TEs. But it's hard to get that combo regardless of draft position.

I never actively seek a tandem but it is nice to see both your guys rack up points at the same time, just as long as you know you have no advantage statistically when pairing a QB and receiever from the same team.


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 Post subject: Re: Pair or Beware?
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 06:17 
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Supreme Megalodon
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Sounds like a plan to reach to get a guy just to make the pair.

Unless I've got a league that gives me bonus points for this, I can't see any logical reason to make an effort to match 'em up.

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 Post subject: Re: Pair or Beware?
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 07:10 
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pwbowen wrote:
Sounds like a plan to reach to get a guy just to make the pair.

Unless I've got a league that gives me bonus points for this, I can't see any logical reason to make an effort to match 'em up.


That's because no logical reason exists. It's pure emotion.

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12-tm PPR: QB/RB/3WR/2FLEX/TE/D-ST-PK FAAB

Cutler, Russell
LeSean, Pierre, Lamar, Hill, AndreW
Alshon, Cruz, Wallace, Cooks, Cordy, Latimer
Cameron, Niles, ASJ
DET, CLE

Keepers: Cordy, Cutler


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 Post subject: Re: Pair or Beware?
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 07:56 
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Megalodon
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My combos this year are.
Newton-Smith-olsen
Ryan- julio (Wanted to add GONZALES TO)
Ryan -Roddy
ROmo -Witten.
I like having the Qbs main targets locked up...whenever ATL scores i score lol


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 Post subject: Re: Pair or Beware?
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 08:07 
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HammerHead Shark

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I loved having Rivers, gates and floyd two seasons ago.

but then... Gates and floyd both went down in the same game. Took my season to the toilet.

I like pairing to be honest, but I am a bit wary of it if you get gung ho like I did and take more one target. But while it lasted, it was sweet

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QB- Wilson, Dalton
HB- Bradshaw, Mendy, Redman, D. Richardson, Lamar Miller (Taxi Squad), Daniel thomas
Wr- Nicks, Marshall, Jennings, D. Moore, Hester, Cooper
Te- Jared Cook, gresham
Idp- Lawerence Timmons
Def-Giants
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 Post subject: Re: Pair or Beware?
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 08:39 
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Whale Shark

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In my league we refer to this as "double dipping."

Here's the thing it's exciting to have a QB WR combo. You get mass amounts of points all at once and it feels great.

Would you take Colston over Fitzgarld because you had Brees?
Would you take Welker over Megatron because you had Brady?
Would you take Jennings over Andre Johnson because you had Rodgers?

If you answered yes to any of these you seriously need to rethink your draft strategy. in reality it doesn't get you bonus points so there it is a waste of time to plan for it. Take the best player on your boards and you will still get more points over all then you get on the double dip.

The example above is perfect. Taking Welker in the Second because he had Brady. Most likely Megatron was still there. If you would have taken him he would have got your more points the Welker and Brady would have still got you the same number of points. It could have been the difference between making the play offs or being a game or two out. Or the difference between making the play-offs or winning a championship.

Don't get me wrong if I have a top QB and the next guy on the boards is his top target I'll take him. But I'm not going to pass up better players for it or build my draft around getting both those guys. Don't get caught in this trap.

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QB: Brees
WR:Cruz, Decker, Shorts, Hartline, Allen
RB: Charles, MJD, McFadden, Hillis, Jennings
TE: Jordan

1 20 passing
1 10 rushing/receiving
1 PPR, 12 man league.
All TDs 6 Points.


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 Post subject: Re: Pair or Beware?
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 09:06 
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I read the first few posts of this thread feeling as if I was on another planet. Just to be clear, you guys are suggesting that there's more value in taking a guy you evaluate to have a lesser season as long as you can pair him with a guy on his team?

Let's play this out. Personally, I'd rather own Roddy White than Wes Welker, but if I were to draft Brady in R1, some of you think it's wise to skip over Roddy and draft Welker as my WR1? Your reasoning is that even though I think Roddy will have the better year -- scoring more fantasy points than Welker -- since I own Brady, I should take Welker. Nice.

Is this is a troll thread?

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10team.5ppr
QB:Brees
RB:Charles,Jennings,Miller,F.Jackson,Spiller,Williams
WR:Brown,Wallace,Floyd,Wayne,Quick
TE:Donnell,Olsen

10team ppr
QB:Wilson
RB:McCoy,Foster,Jennings,Spiller,Richardson,Blue
WR:Green,Cruz,Floyd,Hilton
TE:Ertz


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 Post subject: Re: Pair or Beware?
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 09:07 
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Its nothing i purposely plan for but if the value lines up appropriately i don't shy away from it. If you take rodgers in the first and you need a wr in the 3rd and nelson is the best available go for it. Just don't reach. Dont skip on jennings to take Lloyd because you have brady. I got eli and cruz in my draft. Wasn't planned but if the value is there go for it


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 Post subject: Re: Pair or Beware?
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 09:13 
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Whale Shark
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I have had it done in the past; but it was nothing I purposely planned for. If the best guy is available and it just so happens I have his QB or WR then I draft him.

It's pure coincidence with me

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J Cutler, R Wilson
M Ball, A Ellington, CJ Spiller
C Johnson, V Jackson, T Smith, M Wallace, R Randle
C Clay, H Miller
N Freese, C Parkey
Carolina, Cincinatti


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 Post subject: Re: Pair or Beware?
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 09:16 
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Megalodon
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bradysbombers wrote:
Its nothing i purposely plan for but if the value lines up appropriately i don't shy away from it. If you take rodgers in the first and you need a wr in the 3rd and nelson is the best available go for it. Just don't reach. Dont skip on jennings to take Lloyd because you have brady. I got eli and cruz in my draft. Wasn't planned but if the value is there go for it

Well put....


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 Post subject: Re: Pair or Beware?
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 10:45 
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Isn't there a higher risk with pairing?

If your QB goes down, most likely your WR's season is going down to, to some degree?

Pick Rodgers, Brady, Brees and Stafford's backup, and I don't believe their #1 receiver will maintain near the same value.

Since WRs are tiered, like any other group, I would reasonably consider skipping the next receiver and take the one below him (similar value), just to avoid that pairing risk.

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12 Team Standard PPR except QB get 5pts-TD,1pt-30yds
*-starter
QB: Vick*
RB: McCoy*; Charles*; Bradshaw; D. Martin*
WR: Cruz*; Julio*; Blackmon ; Cobb
TE: Pettigrew*
K: Janik*
DEF: Sea; Cin*
IDP: Dqwell*


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 Post subject: Re: Pair or Beware?
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 10:52 
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Whale Shark
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sebringc4 wrote:
Isn't there a higher risk with pairing?

If your QB goes down, most likely your WR's season is going down to, to some degree?

Pick Rodgers, Brady, Brees and Stafford's backup, and I don't believe their #1 receiver will maintain near the same value.

Since WRs are tiered, like any other group, I would reasonably consider skipping the next receiver and take the one below him (similar value), just to avoid that pairing risk.


It can work both ways too. I imagine that if Calvin were to go down, Stafford's numbers would take a significant hit as well. You also lose the safety net of having different teams represented. If one of those offenses is shutdown, you would take a big hit at your QB and WR1, causing a loss for that week. It's always wiser to strive for balance over peaks and valleys.

This entire thread defies logic.

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10team.5ppr
QB:Brees
RB:Charles,Jennings,Miller,F.Jackson,Spiller,Williams
WR:Brown,Wallace,Floyd,Wayne,Quick
TE:Donnell,Olsen

10team ppr
QB:Wilson
RB:McCoy,Foster,Jennings,Spiller,Richardson,Blue
WR:Green,Cruz,Floyd,Hilton
TE:Ertz


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