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DGDillsnick
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 14:44 
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Andre Johnson or Nicks this year? I drafted AJ with the 1st pick in the 3rd round and am having second thoughts. Being offered a straight up trade for Nicks.
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TheChamp
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 14:49 
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I'll take AJ over Nicks. Both come with their own injury risks, but AJs ceiling is higher IMO.
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hard 10
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 14:51 
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Johnson, but Nicks is a very good receiver.

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newmancrew
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 14:53 
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You should be having second thoughts. AJ can't be trusted for one second. AJ does have more talent and a lil more ceiling... But Nicks will play more games.

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FantasyTom
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 15:03 
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I think this would be a good poll question. I think arguments can truly be made for both sides and we'll only know the right answer after all is said and done. My vote is for Nicks only because I know a little more about what's in store and what to expect.
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Gill Posse
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 15:10 
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CRIPPLE FIGHT!

I would give the nod to Nicks over AJ if only for the fact that the Giants will be more prone to air it out than the Texans will...and that Nicks will probably be on the field more. :P

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xdanb22x
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 15:16 
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I too have Nicks over AJ. Nicks will play more games, and is in a better offense for passing. AJ is past his prime.
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zodiak
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 15:25 
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(This is assuming both play a full season, because both aren't the picture of health)

Andre in PPR. He has higher upside due to his receptions (100+) and yardage (1400+). Nicks has the advantage in TD's, but not enough to overcome what I see as a 15-20 receptions and 150-200 yardage difference.

I have Andre as my #3 WR.
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FantasyTom
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 15:41 
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zodiak wrote:
(This is assuming both play a full season, because both aren't the picture of health)

Andre in PPR. He has higher upside due to his receptions (100+) and yardage (1400+). Nicks has the advantage in TD's, but not enough to overcome what I see as a 15-20 receptions and 150-200 yardage difference.

I have Andre as my #3 WR.

This also does assume everything goes back to the way it was (reasonable but not guaranteed). Last year Schaub averaged 29-30 attempts a game. Overall, the team (factoring in Schaub), averaged just over 29 a game. In 2010, they averaged 36 a game. In 2009, it was 37 a game. They could have switched gears because AJ was out or to further feature their strong run-game (taking advantage of strengths).

My guess is somewhere in the middle, so maybe 32-33 times a game this year? That's a 10% decline overall. So to be crude, that adjustment would put AJ (using 09-10 years prorated) at 93-1383-8. Nicks's avg the last 2 years prorated (including the playoff games) would be about 92-1344-11.

or one could prorate AJ's 1st 3 and 2 playoffs....and get 109-1654-10 :D

On our next episode of Fun With Numbers...
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ffking24
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 18:32 
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I like Aj, however will concede that H-town will pass less but he's supreme talent-with that said, i drafted him and plan on trading him based off his name before the season gets deep
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birddog
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 18:34 
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AJ for me



then pick up Jean late to bench and cover in deeper leagues

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allen3388
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 18:56 
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Going Nicks and its bc I have him

Also, he'll play more games. Don't trust AJ to stay healthy for as many games. Both are a bit injury prone, however. I'll go with the man playing more

But I would get Aj too, if I had a chance to get him. I just prefer Nicks

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lsumc131
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 19:27 
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Nicks
Nicks Nicks
and Nicks
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zodiak
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 19:39 
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FantasyTom wrote:
zodiak wrote:
(This is assuming both play a full season, because both aren't the picture of health)

Andre in PPR. He has higher upside due to his receptions (100+) and yardage (1400+). Nicks has the advantage in TD's, but not enough to overcome what I see as a 15-20 receptions and 150-200 yardage difference.

I have Andre as my #3 WR.

This also does assume everything goes back to the way it was (reasonable but not guaranteed). Last year Schaub averaged 29-30 attempts a game. Overall, the team (factoring in Schaub), averaged just over 29 a game. In 2010, they averaged 36 a game. In 2009, it was 37 a game. They could have switched gears because AJ was out or to further feature their strong run-game (taking advantage of strengths).

My guess is somewhere in the middle, so maybe 32-33 times a game this year? That's a 10% decline overall. So to be crude, that adjustment would put AJ (using 09-10 years prorated) at 93-1383-8. Nicks's avg the last 2 years prorated (including the playoff games) would be about 92-1344-11.

or one could prorate AJ's 1st 3 and 2 playoffs....and get 109-1654-10 :D

On our next episode of Fun With Numbers...

In the 3 games both Schaub and AJ were healthy in 2012, AJ averaged 10.7 targets of Schaub's 30.7 attempts per game. That's still over 170 targets when extrapolated, roughly the same amount he had in 2010 when extrapolated (169.8).

With a healthy AJ/Schaub the past two years they're averaging:
2010: 603 attempts (170 to AJ)
2011: 491 attempts (171 to AJ)

AJ is the #1 target and regardless of the amount of throwing will get his targets.
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FantasyTom
PostPosted: Tue 08.28.2012, 23:06 
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zodiak wrote:
FantasyTom wrote:
zodiak wrote:
(This is assuming both play a full season, because both aren't the picture of health)

Andre in PPR. He has higher upside due to his receptions (100+) and yardage (1400+). Nicks has the advantage in TD's, but not enough to overcome what I see as a 15-20 receptions and 150-200 yardage difference.

I have Andre as my #3 WR.

This also does assume everything goes back to the way it was (reasonable but not guaranteed). Last year Schaub averaged 29-30 attempts a game. Overall, the team (factoring in Schaub), averaged just over 29 a game. In 2010, they averaged 36 a game. In 2009, it was 37 a game. They could have switched gears because AJ was out or to further feature their strong run-game (taking advantage of strengths).

My guess is somewhere in the middle, so maybe 32-33 times a game this year? That's a 10% decline overall. So to be crude, that adjustment would put AJ (using 09-10 years prorated) at 93-1383-8. Nicks's avg the last 2 years prorated (including the playoff games) would be about 92-1344-11.

or one could prorate AJ's 1st 3 and 2 playoffs....and get 109-1654-10 :D

On our next episode of Fun With Numbers...

In the 3 games both Schaub and AJ were healthy in 2012, AJ averaged 10.7 targets of Schaub's 30.7 attempts per game. That's still over 170 targets when extrapolated, roughly the same amount he had in 2010 when extrapolated (169.8).

With a healthy AJ/Schaub the past two years they're averaging:
2010: 603 attempts (170 to AJ)
2011: 491 attempts (171 to AJ)

AJ is the #1 target and regardless of the amount of throwing will get his targets.

You took all the fun out of Fun With Numbers [-X
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