(This is assuming both play a full season, because both aren't the picture of health)
Andre in PPR. He has higher upside due to his receptions (100+) and yardage (1400+). Nicks has the advantage in TD's, but not enough to overcome what I see as a 15-20 receptions and 150-200 yardage difference.
I have Andre as my #3 WR.
This also does assume everything goes back to the way it was (reasonable but not guaranteed). Last year Schaub averaged 29-30 attempts a game. Overall, the team (factoring in Schaub), averaged just over 29 a game. In 2010, they averaged 36 a game. In 2009, it was 37 a game. They could have switched gears because AJ was out or to further feature their strong run-game (taking advantage of strengths).
My guess is somewhere in the middle, so maybe 32-33 times a game this year? That's a 10% decline overall. So to be crude, that adjustment would put AJ (using 09-10 years prorated) at 93-1383-8. Nicks's avg the last 2 years prorated (including the playoff games) would be about 92-1344-11.
or one could prorate AJ's 1st 3 and 2 playoffs....and get 109-1654-10 :D
On our next episode of Fun With Numbers...
In the 3 games both Schaub and AJ were healthy in 2012, AJ averaged 10.7 targets of Schaub's 30.7 attempts per game. That's still over 170 targets when extrapolated, roughly the same amount he had in 2010 when extrapolated (169.8).
With a healthy AJ/Schaub the past two years they're averaging:
2010: 603 attempts (170 to AJ)
2011: 491 attempts (171 to AJ)
AJ is the #1 target and regardless of the amount of throwing will get his targets.