FantasySharks.com

There are two types of Fantasy Football Owners: Sharks and Chum, which are you?
It is currently Thu 04.24.2014, 15:58

All times are UTC - 5 hours




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 79 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next
Author Message
PostPosted: Thu 08.30.2012, 11:52 
Offline
Great White Shark
Great White Shark

Joined: Tue 08.28.2012, 19:43
Posts: 4640
Sand$: 2508
Donate
There are a few things people do in fantasy football that make no sense (more than a few, but I will highlight a few). Keep in mind this is only my second year playing and I'm not an expert on football, but these are so obvious that I don't think you need a football background

1) handcuffing. Handcuffing provides no more value to the guy with the starter than to anybody else in the league. Let's take an example

Team 1: 
Running backs MJD, Arian foster, Trent Richardson
Bench running backs: Willis mcgahee,  rashad Jennings

Team 2: running backs: Chris Johnson, Arian foster, Trent Richardson 
Bench running backs: Willis mcgahee, rashad Jennings

Let's look at some scenarios:
1) nobody gets injured. In this case the starters keep playing
2) MJD gets injured. Now if u had mcgahee and rashad Jennings on your bench, would you really start Jennings over mcgahee?  Makes no sense to do so
3) MJD gets injured and rashad Jennings becomes such a break out star that he is miles better than mcgahee. In this case you could start Jennings if you are player one. Your running backs would then be Jennings, foster, Richardson. Do you notice that player two could also have the same starting line up if he chooses to? He could bench Chris Johnson

So there is no scenario in which MJD gets injured and Jennings provides more value to that player than to every other player. Either he sucks and you should not want to start him anyway or he's good and you want to start him regardless of if you had
MJD on your roster or not

If anything he has marginally more value to the player without MJD because then you have less players with the same bye week

2) Double dipping. This is the one that is clearest to me that there is no logic. If Tom Brady has 22 points in a given game, and that same week Wes welker has 15 points and Calvin Johnson has 18 points, which wr would you want paired with Tom Brady that week?  The discussion can end there. 

3) its a passing league, so take quarterbacks earlier. While this makes a little bit of sense, it still ignores relative value. Yes qb score more poits now...that means ALL qb score more. If stafford will score 20% more than usual, so will Andy dalton. In one of my leagues somebody took stafford in the first round. The picks were Rodgers, foster, Brady, brees, rice (me), McCoy, newton, stafford. This was an 8 man league, so only 8 qb start. So you would waste your first roud pick on a qb you project to be The 5th best? In an 8 man league, 5th best is worse than average. So why would you take a worse than average qb when you could take Calvin Johnson and have the best at that position? I'd rather have Matt ryan and Calvin than Matt stafford and garçon 

Those are the three fallacies I run into most. I think they're mostly obvious , but I'm welcome to any rebuttals. 


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 08.30.2012, 12:03 
Offline
Megalodon
Megalodon
User avatar

Joined: Sat 05.16.2009, 09:57
Posts: 24174
Sand$: 31033
Donate
Location: Arkansas
mia.gif
Handcuffing isn't fallacious. It gets you a valuable insurance policy later in thedraft at good value. eople just label the wrong backs a handcuff. Ben Tate is a valuable handcuff. He provides some value on his own, and if Foster goes down, he provides great scoring. Toby Gerhart, not so much.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 08.30.2012, 12:03 
Offline
Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sat 08.01.2009, 23:39
Posts: 27562
Sand$: 40270
Donate
Location: SoCal
nyj.gif
Fallacies in the Tank:

Not using the search function -

Handcuff discussion
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=286946&p=3959644&hilit=handcuff#p3959644

Pairing discussion
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=287476&hilit=pairing

Taking QB early
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=285975&hilit=6+pt+pass+td
and countless others


Sorry if I'm coming off jerky, but since I am, you also can't claim any knowledge gained from 8 man leagues. 10 team leagues are barely admissible.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 08.30.2012, 12:05 
Offline
Megalodon
Megalodon
User avatar

Joined: Mon 09.30.2002, 19:43
Posts: 24524
Sand$: 16708
Donate
Location: Shadows and Dust
atl.gif
I stopped at handcuffing

There's a reason I traded for Michael Bush last year after my draft with McFadden on my team. There's a reason it worked too.

Image

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 08.30.2012, 12:08 
Offline
Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Fri 09.03.2004, 19:04
Posts: 32197
Sand$: 5246
Donate
Location: West By God Virginia
sf.gif
ZebraTank47 wrote:
There are a few things people do in fantasy football that make no sense (more than a few, but I will highlight a few). Keep in mind this is only my second year playing and I'm not an expert on football, but these are so obvious that I don't think you need a football background

1) handcuffing. Handcuffing provides no more value to the guy with the starter than to anybody else in the league. Let's take an example

Team 1: 
Running backs MJD, Arian foster, Trent Richardson
Bench running backs: Willis mcgahee,  rashad Jennings

Team 2: running backs: Chris Johnson, Arian foster, Trent Richardson 
Bench running backs: Willis mcgahee, rashad Jennings

Let's look at some scenarios:
1) nobody gets injured. In this case the starters keep playing
2) MJD gets injured. Now if u had mcgahee and rashad Jennings on your bench, would you really start Jennings over mcgahee?  Makes no sense to do so
3) MJD gets injured and rashad Jennings becomes such a break out star that he is miles better than mcgahee. In this case you could start Jennings if you are player one. Your running backs would then be Jennings, foster, Richardson. Do you notice that player two could also have the same starting line up if he chooses to? He could bench Chris Johnson

So there is no scenario in which MJD gets injured and Jennings provides more value to that player than to every other player. Either he sucks and you should not want to start him anyway or he's good and you want to start him regardless of if you had
MJD on your roster or not

If anything he has marginally more value to the player without MJD because then you have less players with the same bye week

2) Double dipping. This is the one that is clearest to me that there is no logic. If Tom Brady has 22 points in a given game, and that same week Wes welker has 15 points and Calvin Johnson has 18 points, which wr would you want paired with Tom Brady that week?  The discussion can end there. 

3) its a passing league, so take quarterbacks earlier. While this makes a little bit of sense, it still ignores relative value. Yes qb score more poits now...that means ALL qb score more. If stafford will score 20% more than usual, so will Andy dalton. In one of my leagues somebody took stafford in the first round. The picks were Rodgers, foster, Brady, brees, rice (me), McCoy, newton, stafford. This was an 8 man league, so only 8 qb start. So you would waste your first roud pick on a qb you project to be The 5th best? In an 8 man league, 5th best is worse than average. So why would you take a worse than average qb when you could take Calvin Johnson and have the best at that position? I'd rather have Matt ryan and Calvin than Matt stafford and garçon 

Those are the three fallacies I run into most. I think they're mostly obvious , but I'm welcome to any rebuttals. 


1. Handcuffing is beneficial in he more challenging leagues only if you can get the backup to a injury prone back late late in the draft. otherwise I don't care

2. I don't get double dipping either. If the offense has a bad day you are screwed. I would rather be as diverse as I can but I don't go out of my way to be diverse. I just take the best player available.

3. People who take quarterbacks early are morons. RBs run out after 16 or 17 of them. so you are praying and hoping one of your sleepers hits. This year more then ever with all the uncertainty at a very thin position, I want to get sure things early and often. I know what Romo or Rivers will do for me, I may be high on Ryan Williams but i would not want to rely on him as of now.

_________________
Image
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 08.30.2012, 12:12 
Offline
Blue Shark
User avatar

Joined: Thu 09.04.2003, 11:17
Posts: 419
Sand$: 364
Donate
nyg.gif
There are a few problems with your arguments. First of all not too many owners will have Arian Foster, MJD and Trent Richardson on the same team. Hancuffing is used in a scenario where you won't have another quality starter to throw into your lineup should your stud RB get injured. Chances are if you drafted Arian Foster #1 overall your next pick wasn't for another 23 picks and that wouldn't leave you many options for a top RB.

Moving onto the QB/WR combo...Once again drafting order or auction values will probably not find too many owners having both Tom Brady and Calvin Johnson on the same team but you might just be able to land Tom Brady and Wes Welker.

It's all about value at your pick in the draft order or value in auction prices. You've got to be flexible but also have a plan. Generally the owners that don't have Arian Foster won't be interested in his backup knowing he won't see much action. This year the MJD situation is an exception being that Jennings is probably going to start at least a couple of games.

Your points are valid if you can land those top players on the same team but it is not likely if you are in a very competitive league.


Last edited by Intimidators on Thu 08.30.2012, 12:15, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 08.30.2012, 12:15 
Offline
Megalodon
Megalodon
User avatar

Joined: Mon 09.30.2002, 19:43
Posts: 24524
Sand$: 16708
Donate
Location: Shadows and Dust
atl.gif
^ Good point how the hell you get MJD and Arian on the same team much less Chris Johnson and Arian. 6 team league?

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 08.30.2012, 12:15 
Online
Great White Shark
Great White Shark

Joined: Fri 07.13.2012, 16:47
Posts: 7902
Sand$: 20964
Donate
sf.gif
Double dipping is not just based on one week.
I take into account the whole season and what I project would happen. For example if you are targeting Romo and expect him to have a breakout year then you can also target dez white if you think he will be the main guy getting the production. But that's the way I look at it. As far as handcuffing I think its just an insurance move. I only do it when you can get the guy late. Like when I took Wells and was able to get ryan williams in the 10th round. The qb situation idk I think it differs with the league format


Last edited by Killa CAM CAN!! on Thu 08.30.2012, 12:17, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 08.30.2012, 12:16 
Offline
Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sat 08.01.2009, 23:39
Posts: 27562
Sand$: 40270
Donate
Location: SoCal
nyj.gif
Lundy Love wrote:
3. People who take quarterbacks early are morons.


How do you really feel? :lol:


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 08.30.2012, 12:30 
Offline
Whale Shark

Joined: Sat 09.26.2009, 11:40
Posts: 1188
Sand$: 3291
Donate
Your handcuff example completely ignores the cost of the players. McGahee goes on average three rounds before Jennings. So you are saying that you would rather start a player that is valued as a better running back in a better situation by the FF community. So do the majority of the people, that's why McGahee costs more than Jennings. That doesn't tell us anything about whether handcuffing is a good strategy. Why don't you ask whether you'd rather have Jennings or some other player that costs the same, that is the question.

Handcuffing the right back at the right price can make sense. Not every backup is worth a handcuff. E.g., if you are guaranteed that you get the Texans' running offense even if Foster goes down, that can have value. In a start 2 RB league it means your injury risk exposure is seriously reduced. If you are in a start 1 RB league, your injury risk exposure becomes very small. The question is, at what round is it worth picking Tate to get that insurance. Many people are willing to pay too much.

With a real handcuff you have a rational expectation that an injury to the starter will cause the handcuff's stats to increase. It's insurance against loss. If you back your starter up with some high upside RBBC or backup from another NFL team there is no such causal link and no such direct insurance.

I agree with you about 2 and 3.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 08.30.2012, 12:50 
Offline
Tiger Shark

Joined: Sat 12.25.2004, 10:38
Posts: 275
Sand$: 851
Donate
endzoneview wrote:
Lundy Love wrote:
3. People who take quarterbacks early are morons.


I don't understand this comment? In a scoring system like mine, QB's get 6 pts for every touchdown and .1 pts per every 2 yds, and only -1/ int. Also a 10 point bonus for throwing over 400 yds. Rodgers, Brady, Brees should all most certainly be taken in the top 6 picks, then Stafford and Newton are gone in the 2nd.

Last year in my league Rodgers went early in the 1st and he scored 538 pts and with his 2nd rd pick he chose Frank Gore, and even with the crappy year Gore had, the guy got 721 pts out of his 1 and 2 picks.

The guy who took Foster #1 over all, got 306 pts out of him, and then grabbed Rivers in the 2nd who scored 380, for a total of 686 pts. The guy with Rodgers picked later, and outscored him even though he moronically took a QB.

Now I understand your point bc looking back, he could have waited and on QB, drafted 2 solid RB's and grabbed Stafford in RD 11, but it is not moronic bc Brees, Brady, and Rodgers, now Stafford and Newton are able to outscore the top RB by over 250 pts.


Last edited by coach38018 on Thu 08.30.2012, 12:51, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 08.30.2012, 12:50 
Offline
Megalodon
Megalodon
User avatar

Joined: Tue 08.26.2003, 13:03
Posts: 14477
Sand$: 37322
Donate
Location: At the bar, getting a Bell's Amber Ale
chi.gif
None of those things are "logical fallacies."

They might be considered "poor strategies," but that's debatable and can only be determined in the context of a specific league.

_________________
"If you can't spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker."
-Mike McD, Rounders


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 08.30.2012, 12:52 
Offline
Megalodon
Megalodon
User avatar

Joined: Sun 11.07.2004, 00:18
Posts: 11736
Sand$: 64315
Donate
Location: Wash.
sea.gif
Just because Stafford scores 20% more doesnt mean QB scoring is up. Last year the top tier ran away from the rest. The big question is will the gap shrink in 2012?

_________________
Image Image


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 08.30.2012, 12:54 
Offline
Megalodon
Megalodon
User avatar

Joined: Tue 08.26.2003, 13:03
Posts: 14477
Sand$: 37322
Donate
Location: At the bar, getting a Bell's Amber Ale
chi.gif
newmancrew wrote:
Just because Stafford scores 20% more doesnt mean QB scoring is up. Last year the top tier ran away from the rest. The big question is will the gap shrink in 2012?


That's the more important issue.

It's not relevant that Sam Bradford gets the same 6 points for TDs as Tom Brady gets, it is relevant that Brady throws 15-20 more of them.

_________________
"If you can't spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker."
-Mike McD, Rounders


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 08.30.2012, 13:00 
Offline
Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Fri 09.03.2004, 19:04
Posts: 32197
Sand$: 5246
Donate
Location: West By God Virginia
sf.gif
coach38018 wrote:
endzoneview wrote:
Lundy Love wrote:
3. People who take quarterbacks early are morons.


I don't understand this comment? In a scoring system like mine, QB's get 6 pts for every touchdown and .1 pts per every 2 yds, and only -1/ int. Also a 10 point bonus for throwing over 400 yds. Rodgers, Brady, Brees should all most certainly be taken in the top 6 picks, then Stafford and Newton are gone in the 2nd.

Last year in my league Rodgers went early in the 1st and he scored 538 pts and with his 2nd rd pick he chose Frank Gore, and even with the crappy year Gore had, the guy got 721 pts out of his 1 and 2 picks.

The guy who took Foster #1 over all, got 306 pts out of him, and then grabbed Rivers in the 2nd who scored 380, for a total of 686 pts. The guy with Rodgers picked later, and outscored him even though he moronically took a QB.

Now I understand your point bc looking back, he could have waited and on QB, drafted 2 solid RB's and grabbed Stafford in RD 11, but it is not moronic bc Brees, Brady, and Rodgers, now Stafford and Newton are able to outscore the top RB by over 250 pts.



I bet you the top 11 scorers were QBs......

Your argument is flawed.

Also if you think 4 QB are going to pass for more then 5000 yards like last year, I got a bridge to sell you in the merry land of OZ.

Also the top QBs change every year and there will be one you can grab off the wire or late that will out score or be right with Rodgers, Rivers, Brady, Stafford.

Did you know that Rodgers only passed for more then 28 TDs in only one year. I am convinced that last year was an anomaly or the rest of the league will pass for more making the pool at QB deeper and more supply and less demand.

Of course every one thought last season Vick would be a top QB in the first round too.

I bet you also only one QB was drafted in the first round last year allowing them to secure a consistent RB or two before they pick up their QB or they got lucky and hit with a Sproiles

Either one of two things will happen.

It will go back to normal this year and you screwed your self by not getting the consistent RBs which dry out way too early

or

the rest of the League will catch up and pass more meaning the difference between Rodgers and Rivers is not as much as the difference between a McFadden and a Mcgahee or Gore.

Unless you are in a 2 QB league stay away from QBs in the first.

_________________
Image
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 79 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

All times are UTC - 5 hours


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], getdownmmmkay, Killa CAM CAN!!, MSNbot Media and 10 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group