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PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 14:47 
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I was listening to Bill Simmons podcast with Mike Lombardi (yes, I know some of you think Lombardi is a tool, feel free to move along to the next topic).

He mentioned a stat that he considers a key to victory. I hadn't heard it before.

The stat is . . . Rushing Attempts plus Completions = 51 or more = victory.

Discuss.

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PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 14:55 
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Did he mention the statistical relevance of it? Your post is a little light on that info. By that I mean, what winning percentage is produced when teams have 51 or more rushing attempts + completions? Is it 100%, 90%, etc.?

And then there's the whole "correlation does not imply causation" relationship.

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PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:06 
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Canadian Bacon wrote:
Did he mention the statistical relevance of it? Your post is a little light on that info. By that I mean, what winning percentage is produced when teams have 51 or more rushing attempts + completions? Is it 100%, 90%, etc.?

And then there's the whole "correlation does not imply causation" relationship.


No, he didn't go into that kind of detail.

He brought it up in the context of the the GB-SF game.

SF had 32 rushing attempts. Add in Smith's 20 completions, and the total is 52.

GB had only 14 rushes. So it was going to be hard for even Aaron Rodgers to come up with 37 completions. He didn't, and the Pack lost.

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Russell
LeSean, McKinnon, Oliver, PT, AndreW, Hill
Alshon, Wallace, DePunk, Cooks, Davante, Cordy
Cameron, ASJ
DET, BUF

Keepers: Cordy, Cutler (traded for DePunk)

Lost to INJ: Cruz


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PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:08 
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The total implies a lot of offensive success.


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PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:10 
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Elmagister wrote:
The total implies a lot of offensive success.

I would imagine rushing attempts go up significantly for the team in the lead as well.


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PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:13 
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I heard that too. Lombardi just said it was a stat that Parcells used, which presumably translated to a high winning percentage.

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WR: D. Bryant, J. Boykin
RB: A. Morris, B. Tate
FLEX: J. Cotchery, R. Matthews, C. Ogbonnaya, R. Helu,

TE: J. Thomas, G. Olsen
D/ST: Panthers, Browns
K: N. Novak, J. Brown


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PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:16 
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TheNataliePortmans wrote:
No, he didn't go into that kind of detail.


Well, unless someone actually crunches the numbers, it seems as though it's just a number he pulled out of his rump. Why did he choose 51 as the tipping point? Why not 50 or 52? What if both teams get over 51? Does the higher number always win?

There are a lot more questions raised by this supposition than there are answers.

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RB: McCoy, Gore, Leshoure, Bryce Brown
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TE: None
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PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:17 
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I also heard that the team that scores more generally wins

No link to back it up though.


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PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:18 
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If that were the case, people shouldnt really throw the ball often, because there isn't a 100% chance of completion. At least if you run the ball, you know you are definitely getting a rushing attempt.


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PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:22 
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Well, even just looking back at Week 1 of this season, it doesn't always hold true.

Atlanta vs KC
Atlanta: 23 Rush Attempts + 23 completions = 46 (won)
KC: 33 Rush Attempts + 21 completions = 54 (lost)

San Diego vs Oakland
San Diego: 20 Rush Attempts + 24 completions = 44 (won)
KC: 20 Rush Attempts + 32 completions = 52 (lost)

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QB: Stafford
RB: McCoy, Gore, Leshoure, Bryce Brown
WR: AJ Green, Maclin, Rice, Wallace, Cobb, D. Alexander
TE: None
K: Gould
DEF: Cards, Packers


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PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:25 
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Canadian Bacon wrote:
TheNataliePortmans wrote:
No, he didn't go into that kind of detail.


Well, unless someone actually crunches the numbers, it seems as though it's just a number he pulled out of his rump. Why did he choose 51 as the tipping point? Why not 50 or 52? What if both teams get over 51? Does the higher number always win?

There are a lot more questions raised by this supposition than there are answers.


As Cory above states, it's something he learned from Bill Parcels.

So maybe he pulled it out of Parcel's rump and not his own.

I think the point is that if you have more balance in your offense, you have a better chance to win. Again, the context of this was in discussing the the ineptitude of Ced Benson and how it forced the Pack to abandon the run completely.

I think you should go crunch the numbers and report your findings.

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12-tm PPR: QB/RB/3WR/2FLEX/TE/D-ST-PK [FAAB]

Russell
LeSean, McKinnon, Oliver, PT, AndreW, Hill
Alshon, Wallace, DePunk, Cooks, Davante, Cordy
Cameron, ASJ
DET, BUF

Keepers: Cordy, Cutler (traded for DePunk)

Lost to INJ: Cruz


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PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:25 
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I don't see how its a key to victory. Maybe that's been the case in some victories but I wouldn't say its a key. No different then 48 probably.


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PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:30 
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Canadian Bacon wrote:
Well, even just looking back at Week 1 of this season, it doesn't always hold true.

Atlanta vs KC
Atlanta: 23 Rush Attempts + 23 completions = 46 (won)
KC: 33 Rush Attempts + 21 completions = 54 (lost)

San Diego vs Oakland
San Diego: 20 Rush Attempts + 24 completions = 44 (won)
KC: 20 Rush Attempts + 32 completions = 52 (lost)


I think throwing 13 two-yard passes to your tailback will skew all sorts of numbers.

_________________
12-tm PPR: QB/RB/3WR/2FLEX/TE/D-ST-PK [FAAB]

Russell
LeSean, McKinnon, Oliver, PT, AndreW, Hill
Alshon, Wallace, DePunk, Cooks, Davante, Cordy
Cameron, ASJ
DET, BUF

Keepers: Cordy, Cutler (traded for DePunk)

Lost to INJ: Cruz


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PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:34 
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TheNataliePortmans wrote:
I think you should go crunch the numbers and report your findings.


Well I wasn't the one who put the theory forward so the burden of proof is on him, not me.

Posting of two stat lines from last week is all the number crunching I'm going to do, at least on this issue.

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QB: Stafford
RB: McCoy, Gore, Leshoure, Bryce Brown
WR: AJ Green, Maclin, Rice, Wallace, Cobb, D. Alexander
TE: None
K: Gould
DEF: Cards, Packers


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PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:37 
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If you just handed off one game and had 55 carries I doubt you'd win the game. So the figures as they are presented don't make much sense.

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RB: Charles, MJD, McFadden, Hillis, Jennings
TE: Jordan

1 20 passing
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