FantasySharks.com

I was listening to Bill Simmons podcast with Mike Lombardi (yes, I know some of you think Lombardi is a tool, feel free to move along to the next topic).

He mentioned a stat that he considers a key to victory. I hadn't heard it before.

The stat is . . . Rushing Attempts plus Completions = 51 or more = victory.

Discuss.

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12-tm PPR: QB-RB-3 WR-2 FLEX-TE-DEF

Week 16 Title Tilt (4th in 8 seasons)

Starters
Brady
CJ, Forte, DeMarco
Cobb, Stevie, Wallace
Witten
CIN

Bench
Kaepernick
Reggie, Reece, Quajizz, B. Pierce
Avery
Allen
NYG

IR
Harvin, DJones, Daniel T

Did he mention the statistical relevance of it? Your post is a little light on that info. By that I mean, what winning percentage is produced when teams have 51 or more rushing attempts + completions? Is it 100%, 90%, etc.?

And then there's the whole "correlation does not imply causation" relationship.

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No Puffin' Please (QB, RB, WR, 2x WR/TE, WR/RB/TE, K, DEF)

QB: Stafford
RB: McCoy, Gore, Leshoure, Bryce Brown
WR: AJ Green, Maclin, Rice, Wallace, Cobb, D. Alexander
TE: None
K: Gould
DEF: Cards, Packers

No, he didn't go into that kind of detail.

He brought it up in the context of the the GB-SF game.

SF had 32 rushing attempts. Add in Smith's 20 completions, and the total is 52.

GB had only 14 rushes. So it was going to be hard for even Aaron Rodgers to come up with 37 completions. He didn't, and the Pack lost.

_________________
12-tm PPR: QB-RB-3 WR-2 FLEX-TE-DEF

Week 16 Title Tilt (4th in 8 seasons)

Starters
Brady
CJ, Forte, DeMarco
Cobb, Stevie, Wallace
Witten
CIN

Bench
Kaepernick
Reggie, Reece, Quajizz, B. Pierce
Avery
Allen
NYG

IR
Harvin, DJones, Daniel T

The total implies a lot of offensive success.

I would imagine rushing attempts go up significantly for the team in the lead as well.

_________________

I heard that too. Lombardi just said it was a stat that Parcells used, which presumably translated to a high winning percentage.

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12 Team PPR - 6pt passing TD

Starters:

QB: C. Newton
WR: W. Welker, S. Smith
RB: R. Mathews, M. Bush
FLEX: V. Jackson
TE: T. Gonazlez
D/ST: 49ers
K: J. Hanson

BENCH
QB: E. Manning
WR: N. Washington, N. Burleson
RB: J. Dwyer
D/ST: Steelers, Titans

Well, unless someone actually crunches the numbers, it seems as though it's just a number he pulled out of his rump. Why did he choose 51 as the tipping point? Why not 50 or 52? What if both teams get over 51? Does the higher number always win?

There are a lot more questions raised by this supposition than there are answers.

_________________
No Puffin' Please (QB, RB, WR, 2x WR/TE, WR/RB/TE, K, DEF)

QB: Stafford
RB: McCoy, Gore, Leshoure, Bryce Brown
WR: AJ Green, Maclin, Rice, Wallace, Cobb, D. Alexander
TE: None
K: Gould
DEF: Cards, Packers

I also heard that the team that scores more generally wins

No link to back it up though.

If that were the case, people shouldnt really throw the ball often, because there isn't a 100% chance of completion. At least if you run the ball, you know you are definitely getting a rushing attempt.

Well, even just looking back at Week 1 of this season, it doesn't always hold true.

Atlanta vs KC
Atlanta: 23 Rush Attempts + 23 completions = 46 (won)
KC: 33 Rush Attempts + 21 completions = 54 (lost)

San Diego vs Oakland
San Diego: 20 Rush Attempts + 24 completions = 44 (won)
KC: 20 Rush Attempts + 32 completions = 52 (lost)

_________________
No Puffin' Please (QB, RB, WR, 2x WR/TE, WR/RB/TE, K, DEF)

QB: Stafford
RB: McCoy, Gore, Leshoure, Bryce Brown
WR: AJ Green, Maclin, Rice, Wallace, Cobb, D. Alexander
TE: None
K: Gould
DEF: Cards, Packers

As Cory above states, it's something he learned from Bill Parcels.

So maybe he pulled it out of Parcel's rump and not his own.

I think the point is that if you have more balance in your offense, you have a better chance to win. Again, the context of this was in discussing the the ineptitude of Ced Benson and how it forced the Pack to abandon the run completely.

I think you should go crunch the numbers and report your findings.

_________________
12-tm PPR: QB-RB-3 WR-2 FLEX-TE-DEF

Week 16 Title Tilt (4th in 8 seasons)

Starters
Brady
CJ, Forte, DeMarco
Cobb, Stevie, Wallace
Witten
CIN

Bench
Kaepernick
Reggie, Reece, Quajizz, B. Pierce
Avery
Allen
NYG

IR
Harvin, DJones, Daniel T

I don't see how its a key to victory. Maybe that's been the case in some victories but I wouldn't say its a key. No different then 48 probably.

I think throwing 13 two-yard passes to your tailback will skew all sorts of numbers.

_________________
12-tm PPR: QB-RB-3 WR-2 FLEX-TE-DEF

Week 16 Title Tilt (4th in 8 seasons)

Starters
Brady
CJ, Forte, DeMarco
Cobb, Stevie, Wallace
Witten
CIN

Bench
Kaepernick
Reggie, Reece, Quajizz, B. Pierce
Avery
Allen
NYG

IR
Harvin, DJones, Daniel T

Well I wasn't the one who put the theory forward so the burden of proof is on him, not me.

Posting of two stat lines from last week is all the number crunching I'm going to do, at least on this issue.

_________________
No Puffin' Please (QB, RB, WR, 2x WR/TE, WR/RB/TE, K, DEF)

QB: Stafford
RB: McCoy, Gore, Leshoure, Bryce Brown
WR: AJ Green, Maclin, Rice, Wallace, Cobb, D. Alexander
TE: None
K: Gould
DEF: Cards, Packers

If you just handed off one game and had 55 carries I doubt you'd win the game. So the figures as they are presented don't make much sense.

_________________
QB: Rivers,Cutler
WR:Welker,Malcolm Floyd, Hawkins, Andre Roberts
RB:Charles, Lawfirm, McGahee, Stewart
TE: Graham

1 20 passing
1 10 rushing/receiving
1 PPR, 12 man league.
All TDs 6 Points.