FantasySharks.com

There are two types of Fantasy Football Owners: Sharks and Chum, which are you?
It is currently Sat 07.04.2015, 21:43

All times are UTC - 5 hours




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 39 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3  Next
Author Message
PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 14:47 
Offline
Great White Shark
Great White Shark
User avatar

Joined Thu Sep 24, 2009
Sand$ 16,654.68
Posts 9399
I was listening to Bill Simmons podcast with Mike Lombardi (yes, I know some of you think Lombardi is a tool, feel free to move along to the next topic).

He mentioned a stat that he considers a key to victory. I hadn't heard it before.

The stat is . . . Rushing Attempts plus Completions = 51 or more = victory.

Discuss.

_________________
12-tm PPR: QB/RB/3WR/2FLEX/TE/D-ST-PK [FAAB]

Stafford
Hill, Latavius, Sims, Hyde, PT
Alshon, DePunk, Martavis, Wallace, Davante, Hogan, Moncrief, Latimer
Rivera
DET, KCC

Lost to INJ: Cruz, Cooks, McKinnon


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 14:55 
Offline
Chum
User avatar

Joined Wed Nov 24, 2010
Sand$ 58.00
Posts 24
mia.gif
Did he mention the statistical relevance of it? Your post is a little light on that info. By that I mean, what winning percentage is produced when teams have 51 or more rushing attempts + completions? Is it 100%, 90%, etc.?

And then there's the whole "correlation does not imply causation" relationship.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:06 
Offline
Great White Shark
Great White Shark
User avatar

Joined Thu Sep 24, 2009
Sand$ 16,654.68
Posts 9399
Canadian Bacon wrote:
Did he mention the statistical relevance of it? Your post is a little light on that info. By that I mean, what winning percentage is produced when teams have 51 or more rushing attempts + completions? Is it 100%, 90%, etc.?

And then there's the whole "correlation does not imply causation" relationship.


No, he didn't go into that kind of detail.

He brought it up in the context of the the GB-SF game.

SF had 32 rushing attempts. Add in Smith's 20 completions, and the total is 52.

GB had only 14 rushes. So it was going to be hard for even Aaron Rodgers to come up with 37 completions. He didn't, and the Pack lost.

_________________
12-tm PPR: QB/RB/3WR/2FLEX/TE/D-ST-PK [FAAB]

Stafford
Hill, Latavius, Sims, Hyde, PT
Alshon, DePunk, Martavis, Wallace, Davante, Hogan, Moncrief, Latimer
Rivera
DET, KCC

Lost to INJ: Cruz, Cooks, McKinnon


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:08 
Offline
Supreme Megalodon
Supreme Megalodon
User avatar

Joined Sat May 16, 2009
Sand$ 47,494.36
Posts 36021
Location Arkansas
mia.gif
The total implies a lot of offensive success.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:10 
Offline
Supreme Megalodon
Supreme Megalodon
User avatar

Joined Thu Aug 31, 2006
Sand$ 53,214.16
Posts 33383
Location Home of UNI Panthers
min.gif
Elmagister wrote:
The total implies a lot of offensive success.

I would imagine rushing attempts go up significantly for the team in the lead as well.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:13 
Offline
Chum
User avatar

Joined Thu Aug 26, 2010
Sand$ 64.00
Posts 20
Location Little Rock, AR
dal.gif
I heard that too. Lombardi just said it was a stat that Parcells used, which presumably translated to a high winning percentage.

_________________
12 Team PPR - 6pt passing TD

QB: C. Newton, J. Campbell
WR: D. Bryant, J. Boykin
RB: A. Morris, B. Tate
FLEX: J. Cotchery, R. Matthews, C. Ogbonnaya, R. Helu,

TE: J. Thomas, G. Olsen
D/ST: Panthers, Browns
K: N. Novak, J. Brown


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:16 
Offline
Chum
User avatar

Joined Wed Nov 24, 2010
Sand$ 58.00
Posts 24
mia.gif
TheNataliePortmans wrote:
No, he didn't go into that kind of detail.


Well, unless someone actually crunches the numbers, it seems as though it's just a number he pulled out of his rump. Why did he choose 51 as the tipping point? Why not 50 or 52? What if both teams get over 51? Does the higher number always win?

There are a lot more questions raised by this supposition than there are answers.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:17 
Offline
Great White Shark
Great White Shark

Joined Tue Aug 28, 2012
Sand$ 2,256.90
Posts 6884
I also heard that the team that scores more generally wins

No link to back it up though.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:18 
Offline
Great White Shark
Great White Shark

Joined Tue Aug 28, 2012
Sand$ 2,256.90
Posts 6884
If that were the case, people shouldnt really throw the ball often, because there isn't a 100% chance of completion. At least if you run the ball, you know you are definitely getting a rushing attempt.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:22 
Offline
Chum
User avatar

Joined Wed Nov 24, 2010
Sand$ 58.00
Posts 24
mia.gif
Well, even just looking back at Week 1 of this season, it doesn't always hold true.

Atlanta vs KC
Atlanta: 23 Rush Attempts + 23 completions = 46 (won)
KC: 33 Rush Attempts + 21 completions = 54 (lost)

San Diego vs Oakland
San Diego: 20 Rush Attempts + 24 completions = 44 (won)
KC: 20 Rush Attempts + 32 completions = 52 (lost)


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:25 
Offline
Great White Shark
Great White Shark
User avatar

Joined Thu Sep 24, 2009
Sand$ 16,654.68
Posts 9399
Canadian Bacon wrote:
TheNataliePortmans wrote:
No, he didn't go into that kind of detail.


Well, unless someone actually crunches the numbers, it seems as though it's just a number he pulled out of his rump. Why did he choose 51 as the tipping point? Why not 50 or 52? What if both teams get over 51? Does the higher number always win?

There are a lot more questions raised by this supposition than there are answers.


As Cory above states, it's something he learned from Bill Parcels.

So maybe he pulled it out of Parcel's rump and not his own.

I think the point is that if you have more balance in your offense, you have a better chance to win. Again, the context of this was in discussing the the ineptitude of Ced Benson and how it forced the Pack to abandon the run completely.

I think you should go crunch the numbers and report your findings.

_________________
12-tm PPR: QB/RB/3WR/2FLEX/TE/D-ST-PK [FAAB]

Stafford
Hill, Latavius, Sims, Hyde, PT
Alshon, DePunk, Martavis, Wallace, Davante, Hogan, Moncrief, Latimer
Rivera
DET, KCC

Lost to INJ: Cruz, Cooks, McKinnon


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:25 
Offline
Megalodon
Megalodon
User avatar

Joined Fri Jul 13, 2012
Sand$ 39,728.96
Posts 13532
sf.gif
I don't see how its a key to victory. Maybe that's been the case in some victories but I wouldn't say its a key. No different then 48 probably.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:30 
Offline
Great White Shark
Great White Shark
User avatar

Joined Thu Sep 24, 2009
Sand$ 16,654.68
Posts 9399
Canadian Bacon wrote:
Well, even just looking back at Week 1 of this season, it doesn't always hold true.

Atlanta vs KC
Atlanta: 23 Rush Attempts + 23 completions = 46 (won)
KC: 33 Rush Attempts + 21 completions = 54 (lost)

San Diego vs Oakland
San Diego: 20 Rush Attempts + 24 completions = 44 (won)
KC: 20 Rush Attempts + 32 completions = 52 (lost)


I think throwing 13 two-yard passes to your tailback will skew all sorts of numbers.

_________________
12-tm PPR: QB/RB/3WR/2FLEX/TE/D-ST-PK [FAAB]

Stafford
Hill, Latavius, Sims, Hyde, PT
Alshon, DePunk, Martavis, Wallace, Davante, Hogan, Moncrief, Latimer
Rivera
DET, KCC

Lost to INJ: Cruz, Cooks, McKinnon


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:34 
Offline
Chum
User avatar

Joined Wed Nov 24, 2010
Sand$ 58.00
Posts 24
mia.gif
TheNataliePortmans wrote:
I think you should go crunch the numbers and report your findings.


Well I wasn't the one who put the theory forward so the burden of proof is on him, not me.

Posting of two stat lines from last week is all the number crunching I'm going to do, at least on this issue.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Thu 09.13.2012, 15:37 
Offline
Whale Shark

Joined Thu Aug 27, 2009
Sand$ 2,681.00
Posts 1176
sf.gif
If you just handed off one game and had 55 carries I doubt you'd win the game. So the figures as they are presented don't make much sense.

_________________
QB: Brees
WR:Cruz, Decker, Shorts, Hartline, Allen
RB: Charles, MJD, McFadden, Hillis, Jennings
TE: Jordan

1 20 passing
1 10 rushing/receiving
1 PPR, 12 man league.
All TDs 6 Points.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 39 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3  Next

All times are UTC - 5 hours


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], licker and 8 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group