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PostPosted: Fri 09.14.2012, 14:43 
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Whale Shark

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Momentum is very much talked about in sports, especially football. I really have come to believe it is a complete myth. It is true that success seems to come in chunks, but I belie this is more due to adjustments (both from coaches and individuals) being made throughout the game. One team gets a step ahead and can ride that change until the other team catches up. What does everyone in the tank think?

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QB: Brees
WR:Cruz, Decker, Shorts, Hartline, Allen
RB: Charles, MJD, McFadden, Hillis, Jennings
TE: Jordan

1 20 passing
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1 PPR, 12 man league.
All TDs 6 Points.


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PostPosted: Fri 09.14.2012, 14:46 
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http://www.amazon.com/How-Know-What-Isn ... 0029117062

This book proves that success actually does not happen in chunks.


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PostPosted: Fri 09.14.2012, 14:50 
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bradburyesqu wrote:
Momentum .... I really have come to believe it is a complete myth.

With Clay Matthews at 255lbs and a top speed of 18mph, I think Jay Cutler would disagree momentum is myth.


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PostPosted: Fri 09.14.2012, 14:51 
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ZebraTank47 wrote:
http://www.amazon.com/How-Know-What-Isnt-Fallibility/dp/0029117062

This book proves that success actually does not happen in chunks.


I haven't read it and it does seem like an interesting book. But I have two objections to your arguments. I conceded that success comes in chunks and proposed another reason for that out side of the momentum theory. Secondly, based on the description this book doesn't prove anything, instead it appears to offer compelling arguments for and against theories. Not the same thing as proof.

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QB: Brees
WR:Cruz, Decker, Shorts, Hartline, Allen
RB: Charles, MJD, McFadden, Hillis, Jennings
TE: Jordan

1 20 passing
1 10 rushing/receiving
1 PPR, 12 man league.
All TDs 6 Points.


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PostPosted: Fri 09.14.2012, 14:54 
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Well, since I actually read the book, I can tell you it does prove it. I remember one chapter where he uses a very large sample to disprove the "hot hand" basketball shooting myth that if a player hits a shot, he is more likely to hit the next shot. To the contrary, people are actually less likely to make the shot if they have the hot hand.

Also, yeah if you are up by a lot the other team is going to make rash decisions like deep threats, but the leading team is also going to run the clock more.


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PostPosted: Fri 09.14.2012, 15:05 
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ZebraTank47 wrote:
Well, since I actually read the book, I can tell you it does prove it. I remember one chapter where he uses a very large sample to disprove the "hot hand" basketball shooting myth that if a player hits a shot, he is more likely to hit the next shot. To the contrary, people are actually less likely to make the shot if they have the hot hand.


Again offering a large sample doesn't prove or disprove. It is very hard to call something scientifically proven. But as I said I haven't read it so I'd have to defer to you. Again it does look like an interesting read.

ZebraTank47 wrote:
Also, yeah if you are up by a lot the other team is going to make rash decisions like deep threats, but the leading team is also going to run the clock more.


Correct, and these changes will naturally shift the pacing of the game. So what looks like a momentum shift is really just a shift in strategy. With the new strategy being more successful.

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QB: Brees
WR:Cruz, Decker, Shorts, Hartline, Allen
RB: Charles, MJD, McFadden, Hillis, Jennings
TE: Jordan

1 20 passing
1 10 rushing/receiving
1 PPR, 12 man league.
All TDs 6 Points.


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PostPosted: Fri 09.14.2012, 15:19 
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Yep. If a team is down by 4 points with 1 second left, from the 35 yard line...sure they could kick a FG and make it look like it was a close game because they only lost by 1. But if they took a deep shot and the WR dropped the pass in the end zone and they lost by 4, the game was actually closer, which is why stats dont tell the whole story.


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PostPosted: Fri 09.14.2012, 15:19 
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bradburyesqu wrote:
Momentum is very much talked about in sports, especially football. I really have come to believe it is a complete myth. It is true that success seems to come in chunks, but I belie this is more due to adjustments (both from coaches and individuals) being made throughout the game. One team gets a step ahead and can ride that change until the other team catches up. What does everyone in the tank think?


I've coached for many years both baseball and Football. High School, College and Travel level youth sports. Momentum is a very large factor.

why?

Because we are human, at every step and age group and competitive level.

Little johnnies, the Joes, to the pro's. HUman.

Momentum is pressure in a sporting event.

Pressure and stress creates many variable outcomes, adds a dynamic to the scenario.

Some humans, athletes in this situation react differently based upon the given pressures put upon them.

More pressure, more production..more pressure, less production, demoralized attitude, test of training, coaching character.

All these things come into play...Momentum is a catalyst for many chain of events which are dependant upon individual makeup of the players/parties involved.

Momentum is no myth. It may seem that way to some, becasue the behind the scenes coaching, training, LEADERSHIP has aided the individuals involved to focus better during trying times. The beauty of sport.

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PostPosted: Fri 09.14.2012, 15:46 
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Fighting Amish wrote:
bradburyesqu wrote:
Momentum is very much talked about in sports, especially football. I really have come to believe it is a complete myth. It is true that success seems to come in chunks, but I belie this is more due to adjustments (both from coaches and individuals) being made throughout the game. One team gets a step ahead and can ride that change until the other team catches up. What does everyone in the tank think?


I've coached for many years both baseball and Football. High School, College and Travel level youth sports. Momentum is a very large factor.

why?

Because we are human, at every step and age group and competitive level.

Little johnnies, the Joes, to the pro's. HUman.

Momentum is pressure in a sporting event.

Pressure and stress creates many variable outcomes, adds a dynamic to the scenario.

Some humans, athletes in this situation react differently based upon the given pressures put upon them.

More pressure, more production..more pressure, less production, demoralized attitude, test of training, coaching character.

All these things come into play...Momentum is a catalyst for many chain of events which are dependent upon individual makeup of the players/parties involved.

Momentum is no myth. It may seem that way to some, becasue the behind the scenes coaching, training, LEADERSHIP has aided the individuals involved to focus better during trying times. The beauty of sport.


If this is true wouldn't it average out over time? Some player perform better with stress some worse?

I'm also not so sure momentum = pressure. I have both coached and played several sports as well. In my experience pressure is ever present and tends to be more related to the important of the event then what goes in within the event. During the moment most athletes are too focused to worry about this kind of minutia.

ZebraTank47 wrote:
Yep. If a team is down by 4 points with 1 second left, from the 35 yard line...sure they could kick a FG and make it look like it was a close game because they only lost by 1. But if they took a deep shot and the WR dropped the pass in the end zone and they lost by 4, the game was actually closer, which is why stats dont tell the whole story.


Look at the SF/GB game.

SF controlled the game from the start. Early in the fourth quarter SF start to run even more while GB cut out running all together.

In the end SF only won buy 8, but everyone agrees that the game wasn't as close as the scored showed.

Some would suggest that GB had the momentum at the end of the game and could have come back if give more time. But this is a perfect example of something I contribute to a change in strategy. If the game were longer the teams wouldn't have likely made this change when they did and I'd expect the outcome to be very similar.

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QB: Brees
WR:Cruz, Decker, Shorts, Hartline, Allen
RB: Charles, MJD, McFadden, Hillis, Jennings
TE: Jordan

1 20 passing
1 10 rushing/receiving
1 PPR, 12 man league.
All TDs 6 Points.


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PostPosted: Fri 09.14.2012, 15:48 
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Exactamundo. There is a lot of voodoo in sports talk


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PostPosted: Fri 09.14.2012, 15:49 
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My roomate used to leave one of his matchbox cars near the TV when the phillies played in the playoffs, because they won an nearly unwinnable game when he did it once.

Not only is that ridiculous because there is obviously no causation, but there are like 100000 people who do these superstitions FOR THE OTHER TEAM AS WELL. So why would yours be the only one that matter?


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PostPosted: Fri 09.14.2012, 15:52 
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Quote:
If this is true wouldn't it average out over time? Some player perform better with stress some worse?


Yes..it does vary, im not saying it's an absolute at all. Far too many human variables. AND..some players not only play better, but feel in their comfort zone better. Other times momentum will crush the majority of the spirits and wills of the opposition that they let down their guard enough to lose precious reflex time, skill and performance levels.

As a coach you do 2 things.

You ingrain in your players to remain focused during your momentum to keep it going, finish it, finish strong, play 4 quarters, 9 innings..HARD.

You have taken it on the chin, the head, the azz, the other team hit a 3 run homer, or scored 2 td's..it's late in the game, you're behind...

This is where strength in leadership prevails. This separates the joes form the pro's in coaching and where they earn their money. This is where faith in sticking to the fundamentals comes through, regardless of the situation, and creating an atmosphere for your players of NO FEAR> Of failure, or anything. And that starts long before that game is played. Where players can rise to the occasion and..make..plays.

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Last edited by Fighting Amish on Fri 09.14.2012, 16:28, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri 09.14.2012, 16:02 
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ZebraTank47 wrote:
My roomate used to leave one of his matchbox cars near the TV when the phillies played in the playoffs, because they won an nearly unwinnable game when he did it once.

Not only is that ridiculous because there is obviously no causation, but there are like 100000 people who do these superstitions FOR THE OTHER TEAM AS WELL. So why would yours be the only one that matter?


I'm sorry I was trying to figure out where we were disagreeing, but I realized that we are arguing essentially the same point. I had missed the word "not" when reading your first post and it through me off. Sorry about that.

Fighting Amish wrote:
Quote:
If this is true wouldn't it average out over time? Some player perform better with stress some worse?


Yes..it does vary, im not saying it's an absilute at all. Far too many human variables. AND..some players not only play better, but feel in their comfort zone better. Other times momentum will crush the majority of the spirits and wills of the opposition that they let down their guard enough to lose precious reflex time, skill and performance levels.



So you're argument is more that momentum is real but can have unpredictable effects?

_________________
QB: Brees
WR:Cruz, Decker, Shorts, Hartline, Allen
RB: Charles, MJD, McFadden, Hillis, Jennings
TE: Jordan

1 20 passing
1 10 rushing/receiving
1 PPR, 12 man league.
All TDs 6 Points.


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PostPosted: Fri 09.14.2012, 16:04 
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Define momentum in your context of its use here :-k


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PostPosted: Fri 09.14.2012, 16:18 
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Momentum is often used to describe a team that is "on a roll." Either in a game or over the course of multiple games. So it's the belief that some times a team will continue to have more success for no other reason that they have had recent success.

_________________
QB: Brees
WR:Cruz, Decker, Shorts, Hartline, Allen
RB: Charles, MJD, McFadden, Hillis, Jennings
TE: Jordan

1 20 passing
1 10 rushing/receiving
1 PPR, 12 man league.
All TDs 6 Points.


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