Truth or Dare Week 4 Edition

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Great White Shark
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Truth: Denarius Moore can become a legit top 20 WR. Over his last 4 games played, he's been targeted an average of 8.3 times. His counterpart, DHB, has been targeted 8.8 times. DHB however suffered a concussion week 3 and will be out week 4. Already with whispers of DHB losing favor, this will cement Moore's rise to the top of the pecking order in a high-volume pass offense.

Dare: I dare you to believe Chris Johnson bounces back this year. His adjusted line yards of 1.21 (per Football Outsiders) is by far the lowest in the league. Next lowest is Arizona at 2.49 and Oakland at 2.76. Baltimore leads at 5.06. TEN has been stuffed on 38% of its running plays; worst in the league. Even when TEN gets to the 2nd level (yards 5-10) or to the open field (10+), they rank 32nd and 29th in the league respectively. This weighs on both CJ and the line.

Truth: Mikel LeShoure becomes a top 15 or so RB option in both standard and PPR. 18 of his 26 carries (in his first NFL game) came when DET was behind, so they aren't afraid to use the run to setup the pass even when trailing. They are likely to also utilize him on the wings or checkdowns from time to time. They waited to test his hands until the 4th quarter; when push came to shove and he caught all 4 targets.

Dare: I dare you to lose faith in Phillip Rivers. If you look back over the last 2 years, his struggles tied directly into when they had LT issues. With Gaither coming back either this week or next....with Mathews getting back into the mix....with Meachem's chemistry coming along...Rivers should be able to develop more consistency in the passing game.

Truth: Carolina's offense is not this bad. In 2011, they had the 6th most yards per drive, the 5th most points per drive, 5th highest drive success rate all while having the 18th best average starting line of scrimmage (27.83). So far in 2012, while they have the 3rd highest yards per drive and 10th highest drive success rate.....but they have the 27th highest points per drive and the worst starting line of scrimmage in the league. This should even out some over time.

Dare: I dare you to think the Bills' offense is this good. In 2011, they had the 12th most yards per drive, the 18th most points per drive, 15th highest drive success rate all while having the 27th best average starting line of scrimmage (26.49). So far in 2012, they have the 21st highest yards per drive and 17th highest drive success rate.....but they have the 11th highest points per drive and the 22nd best starting line of scrimmage in the league. In particular, they have the 2nd highest TDs per drive. This should even out some over time.

**Notes on offense stats. In 2011, 92.7% of points scored per drive were explained by the total yards per drive (avg line of scrimmage plus yards earned per drive on average)...aka a 96.3% correlation. The greatest distance a team's points scored per drive was away from the expected value based on the linear explanation line was .28 pts. Only 9 times was it greater than .12. In 2012, based on that same explanation line, the greatest distance at present is BUF with .69 (that they're scoring above where expected...which is 1.66 vs presently 2.35). Carolina's difference is 0.43 below where they should be. To add color, a 0.69 difference is about the same as the difference between ATL and CIN or SD and TEN.

*Was bored and wanted to share some thoughts in a non-normal way, lol.
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Bottom-Dweller League 34 10-3 Lost in Finals
QB Stafford, Rivers
RB L Bell, L Murray, Gio, Denard
WR Wallace, G Tate, Martavis, Vjax
TE Julius, Fleener
K Barth
DEF Rams

Griffmo wrote:the allure of the unknown potential vs the available mediocrity
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Great White Shark
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I double triple dog dare ya! :thumbright:
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Luck, Winston
Forte, Gore, Miller
Cobb, Marshall, M Bryant, Decker, T Smith
Kelce, M Bennett
Vinatairi, Nugent
Arizona, Carolina
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Leopard Shark
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I'll keep my money, my freedom and my guns... you can keep "the change".
User avatar
Great White Shark
Posts: 2073
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2010
Sand$: 4,946.16
"NERDS?!?!"
_______________________________________

Luck, Winston
Forte, Gore, Miller
Cobb, Marshall, M Bryant, Decker, T Smith
Kelce, M Bennett
Vinatairi, Nugent
Arizona, Carolina
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Leopard Shark
Posts: 146
Joined: Sat Sep 9, 2006
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Just playin around, good post. I just have to mess with stat heads \:D/
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I'll keep my money, my freedom and my guns... you can keep "the change".

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