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Agree with this trend?
Yes 92%  92%  [ 12 ]
No 8%  8%  [ 1 ]
Total votes : 13
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PostPosted: Tue 10.16.2012, 22:57 
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Leopard Shark

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I was thinking about this, and wonder what people thought about this:

In the start of the season, WR roles are more in flex as folks get comfortable with new offensive schemes, etc. Chemistry is critical, so WR gems are more likely to pop up. On the other hand, RB roles are largely defined, and stay consistent for a few weeks barring injury.

As we go later in the season (like right now), coaches start trying out other RBs (e.g. Daryl Richardson) and wear and tear starts to show and injuries start to hit especially on rookies (Donald Brown, DeMarco Murray, maybe T. Richardson).

So (and definitely check me on this), that means we should be drafting RB depth to make up for start of season lack of RB gems, since there will likely be WR options on the WW?

Any other ramifications? Is this an argument for handcuffing during your draft (since later picks that are speculative WR picks are less likely to pay off, and to make up for the lack of fill-ins likely to be available in earlier weeks)?

Only been playing fantasy for 2 years, so those with more experience please weigh in!

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QB: Rodgers
RB: J Charles, Matthews, Jennings, LeShoure, BJGE, Mendenhall
WR: Nicks, Maclin, Austin, Cobb, Moss
TE: Hernandez, Celek
K: Suisham
D/ST: NE


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PostPosted: Tue 10.16.2012, 23:07 
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I think that is generally how it usually goes. WR production can be heavily affected by injury as well, but there is always a couple/few late season waiver wire wonders for RB's due to injury. I wouldn't devise a draft strategy too heavy on that, but I think I generally do that anyway. Get quality and depth at the RB position as much as possible, but still need some sure bets @WR to be a solid team.
Never assured to grab the right guy or have waiver priority, so you certainly can not count on this in an astute and active league.

This year definately seems more rich for the WR's with the league turning more into a passing league, which makes the solid #1 RBs on decent running teams all that much more rare and important. Good observation for sure.

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PostPosted: Wed 10.17.2012, 04:39 
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Raw talent and ability surely play a big role, but RB production in the NFL is mostly about system and opportunity. The fact is that there are more RBs capable of producing in the NFL than there are jobs to go around. RBs tend to emerge as the season progresses because starters get injured or fail to produce, opening the door for young players to come in and make the most of their opportunity. This is also why many teams choose to stockpile late round or Free Agent RBs and focus on developing young talents, rather than giving long-term contracts to proven veterans.

My draft strategy is usually to load up on RBs (early and late), and get just enough strong WRs to fill out my starting lineup. I feel like young WRs emerge every year. Offenses are throwing the ball more than ever and the real beneficiaries are the 2nd, 3rd and 4th options. These kinds of players usually won't be consistent producers, but the key is identifying trends (targets, snap counts, etc) and getting on board early.

I got pretty lucky starting Josh Gordon as my WR3 last week in a 14 team league after trading away Steve Johnson.


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PostPosted: Wed 10.17.2012, 05:39 
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Pay attention to whoever it putting up pinball-style numbers in pre-season games, then try to draft them, especially in a dynasty league. Guys like Willie Parker, Victor Cruz, etc were jaw-droppers in camp, and if you harnessed the wild horses, you rode them to victory later.

I'd agree that every year you get a number of WRs who distinguish themselves in the early weeks. If a guy hasn't emerged in the first few weeks after outperforming the starter, he's probably not going to ever be even a WR3 for you that year. Injuries can change that and get a guy into the lineup, but if a guy has a pedestrian camp and hasn't dazzled at practices, then I wouldn't count on it.

RBs, it has been said, depend on opportunity. Sometimes it's clear in camp or due to their contract who's going to get a long leash of opportunity (TRich, DMartin, BJGE, etc), sometimes you don't know what you have until catastrophe strikes (starter goes down or gets benched). Certainly I don't mind picking up a few rookie or backup RBs during the draft and holding them for a while, as they have a better chance than a rookie WR to not just get a shot, but make a real impact in their first season.

I'm not really saying anything you probably don't already know, but there you go anyway...


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PostPosted: Wed 10.17.2012, 16:43 
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Leopard Shark

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In my opinion, the amount of gems are completely random but do tend to show up in clusters. I certainly wouldn't change my draft strategy just to be reliant on the waiver wire later, especially if you have an aggressive league where its hard to be certain that you'll be the first to grab a popular pick. In my drafts I try to grab the few WRs that I feel are the most consistent but more importantly try to hoard as many starting RBs as possible more than WRs, ensuring I get one quality WR1 in there. (Cruz, White,Green,Harvin to name a few). Handcuffing is an optional, but a wise choice especially if the backup has obvious talent. (This year pre-draft I had my eye on Tate and Spiller more than any other backups.) Most pickup situations throughout the seasons come from injuries, and you can't always assume who will be the beneficiary.

In summary, RB production is more predictable and linear while most WRs will be up and down from game to game, so draft great RBs and prioritize on RB gems (depending on your own depth, of course). This is all just an opinion, but I've had success hoarding RBs.

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PostPosted: Wed 10.17.2012, 16:48 
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Great White Shark
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Madden Curse wrote:
Pay attention to whoever it putting up pinball-style numbers in pre-season games, then try to draft them, especially in a dynasty league.

^ This

I saw Alfred Morris go bonkers in that one game against the Colts and really wanted to grab him late rounds. But I doubted it would last due to Shanahanigans, and there were 3 other RB's on WAS roster. Should have gone with my gut.

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PostPosted: Wed 10.17.2012, 16:49 
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Ive always wondered if there was a particular week during the season where a rookie or yr 2 wr just clicks and finally starts producing.

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PostPosted: Wed 10.17.2012, 17:25 
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I agree with your general notion.

I think a lot of the WRs that become more valuable over the course of a season are rostered more often than not. The payoff comes via forward thinking drafting/early trading and not necessarily via the waiver wire. Obviously there are some exceptions, but guys like Steve Smith last year, Reggie Wayne, Harvin, Lance Moore, Randall Cobb, Antonio Brown this year are all guys that were drafted with question marks surrounding their situations and they've played to an increase in value. Hopefully my thought here makes sense.


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PostPosted: Wed 10.17.2012, 18:02 
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I think about this differently.

Each NFL team has at most ONE productive, viable RB. RBBC tends to produce a couple of mediocre options. So - the top 15-20 RBs are precious. After that there's Nothin'.

However many NFL teams have at LEAST two productive WRs - sometimes 3 depending on the offense. In fact, the top WR gets the best coverage and sometimes double-coverage, so often the second WR is a better fantasy choice. So we've got at least 60 decent WRs to pick from, and because some of the secondary WRs are better choices (like Taylor over Rice, Wayne over Harrison, etc.) many of them slide under the radar until late in the draft. Or - as rookies (speed demons especially) distinguish themselves and capture a #2 role on the offense, they can suddenly become big producers).

Later in the season, some RB options will open up due to injuries ... but not many, and usually not very good ones.

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Scoring:

Rush/Rcv TD=6pts
50 yds rush = 2 pts .. 100yds=6 +2/25y
50 yds rcv = 2 pts .. 80=6 +1/10y

Pass TD=4pts, INT=-0
200 yds pass = 2 pts + 1/25yd

FG: 0-34yds=3pts .. 50+=5pts

DEF: TO/Sack=1pt TD=6 S=2
Bonus low yds/pts (up to 6 each)


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PostPosted: Wed 10.17.2012, 19:10 
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Leopard Shark

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Really good thoughts. So I guess this is a trend, but there's nothing really we can do about it to bolster our strategy?

Maybe around week 5 or 6, we look at common injury RBs and ones getting heavy touches, and start adding their back-ups to get a jump on the rest of the guys in the league (David Wilson this week, Daryl Richardson last week, etc.)?

For some reason I thought this was a little bit of an epiphany that would give me an edge next year vs. all the folks who don't read FS in my leagues. I feel like there has to be SOME way to capitalize on this!

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Yahoo Scoring 10-team, with a W/R/T Flex

QB: Rodgers
RB: J Charles, Matthews, Jennings, LeShoure, BJGE, Mendenhall
WR: Nicks, Maclin, Austin, Cobb, Moss
TE: Hernandez, Celek
K: Suisham
D/ST: NE


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