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PostPosted: Mon 11.26.2012, 13:21 
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Got to have the target thread too, right?

And yes, everything is relative to value.


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PostPosted: Mon 11.26.2012, 13:39 
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I'll bite. I am going to try not to list guys that I think will be in the 1st round or could go in the 1st round.

QB's: Ryan, RGIII, Luck, Freeman, Kaepernick
RB's: Martin, CJ.21K (only if great value), T-Rich, Spiller
WR's: VJax, Marshall, Demaryius Thomas, Bryant, Cobb, Harvin, Cecil Shorts (still a sleeper?)
TE's: Witten, Miller, Daniels, Myers

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PostPosted: Mon 11.26.2012, 13:46 
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This year solidified the rb first philosophy in fantasy for me, especially after all that "qbs need to be taken first" preseason talk this past yr.

I will be going rb rb in every draft from here on out in fantasy football

Definitely targeting the sophomore rookie Rbs next year. I used to be a firm believer in sophomore slumps (freeman, blount)

Richardson will probably go first rd but ill definitely be targeting Martin and Morris in the 2nd rd next yr

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QB-Luck, Fitzpatrick
RB-Forte, MJD, Bell, Rainey
WRs-Dez, Djax, Allen, Boykin
TE-Gates, Green
D- Panthers, Raiders
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PostPosted: Mon 11.26.2012, 13:49 
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ryanpstew wrote:
This year solidified the rb first philosophy in fantasy for me, especially after all that "qbs need to be taken first" preseason talk this past yr.

I will be going rb rb in every draft from here on out in fantasy football

Definitely targeting the sophomore rookie Rbs next year. I used to be a firm believer in sophomore slumps (freeman, blount)

Richardson will probably go first rd but ill definitely be targeting Martin and Morris in the 2nd rd next yr

Martin will go in the top 5 picks next season.


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PostPosted: Mon 11.26.2012, 13:50 
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ryanpstew wrote:
This year solidified the rb first philosophy in fantasy for me, especially after all that "qbs need to be taken first" preseason talk this past yr.

I will be going rb rb in every draft from here on out in fantasy football

Definitely targeting the sophomore rookie Rbs next year. I used to be a firm believer in sophomore slumps (freeman, blount)

Richardson will probably go first rd but ill definitely be targeting Martin and Morris in the 2nd rd next yr


I will do the same. Depending on how the draft pans out and who falls, I might go RB-RB-RB in the first 3 rounds.

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PostPosted: Mon 11.26.2012, 13:51 
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zodiak wrote:
ryanpstew wrote:
This year solidified the rb first philosophy in fantasy for me, especially after all that "qbs need to be taken first" preseason talk this past yr.

I will be going rb rb in every draft from here on out in fantasy football

Definitely targeting the sophomore rookie Rbs next year. I used to be a firm believer in sophomore slumps (freeman, blount)

Richardson will probably go first rd but ill definitely be targeting Martin and Morris in the 2nd rd next yr

Martin will go in the top 5 picks next season.


I don't know if Martin will go top-5 next year, but crazier things have happened.

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PostPosted: Mon 11.26.2012, 14:05 
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The RB situation is looking somewhat bleak next year. Not much depth there, so I would definitely be overvaluing RBs, but I do that every year anyway.
Guys I may be targeting as a higher pick than their ADP:
QBs
Cam Newton (might have a drop in ADP that would make a modest rebound for him a boon for fantasy)
Joe Flacco (has shown flashed of being a solid QB1, but will take another step next year)
Phillis Rivers (value has dropped like crazy, but should have a new coach in town next year)

RBs
Ronnie Hillman (could be a starter with old McGahee and a bunch of garbage as the alternatives)
Daryl Richardson (will SJax be around next year, and if so, will he be effective)
CJ Spiller (if for some reason he falls out of the first round he could be a top 5 RB easily)
Bilal Powell (no faith in Greene and Powell has shown some potential)
Kendall Hunter (Gore is getting older...)

WRs
Denarius Moore (consistently under rated)
Justin Blackmon (has been terrible up until recently... sign of things to come)
Stephen Hill (I believe the Jets will draft a QB, which will result in a solid connection with Hill as the future in NY)

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PostPosted: Mon 11.26.2012, 14:24 
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unimsw wrote:
The RB situation is looking somewhat bleak next year. Not much depth there, so I would definitely be overvaluing RBs, but I do that every year anyway.
Guys I may be targeting as a higher pick than their ADP:
QBs
Cam Newton (might have a drop in ADP that would make a modest rebound for him a boon for fantasy)
Joe Flacco (has shown flashed of being a solid QB1, but will take another step next year)
Phillis Rivers (value has dropped like crazy, but should have a new coach in town next year)

RBs
Ronnie Hillman (could be a starter with old McGahee and a bunch of garbage as the alternatives)
Daryl Richardson (will SJax be around next year, and if so, will he be effective)
CJ Spiller (if for some reason he falls out of the first round he could be a top 5 RB easily)
Bilal Powell (no faith in Greene and Powell has shown some potential)
Kendall Hunter (Gore is getting older...)

WRs
Denarius Moore (consistently under rated)
Justin Blackmon (has been terrible up until recently... sign of things to come)
Stephen Hill (I believe the Jets will draft a QB, which will result in a solid connection with Hill as the future in NY)


I like your thinking on Newton. Spiller is going to be a no-brainer. I doubt he goes in the first round though. I do not believe the Jets will draft a QB, but if they do, he will most likely not be their starter due to the contract extension the Jets gave "Sanchize".

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PostPosted: Mon 11.26.2012, 14:24 
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ryanpstew wrote:
This year solidified the rb first philosophy in fantasy for me, especially after all that "qbs need to be taken first" preseason talk this past yr.

I will be going rb rb in every draft from here on out in fantasy football

Definitely targeting the sophomore rookie Rbs next year. I used to be a firm believer in sophomore slumps (freeman, blount)

Richardson will probably go first rd but ill definitely be targeting Martin and Morris in the 2nd rd next yr


While RB's are important I would bet most aren't too happy with their first round RB's compared to some of the very good late value. There are probably only 2 first round caliber guys found in the top 10 of production (depending on format) this year Foster and Rice. Whereas the top 3 QB's (likely fantasy first rounders) are all doing well. I will still go best guy available.

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PostPosted: Mon 11.26.2012, 14:31 
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greenhornet wrote:
ryanpstew wrote:
This year solidified the rb first philosophy in fantasy for me, especially after all that "qbs need to be taken first" preseason talk this past yr.

I will be going rb rb in every draft from here on out in fantasy football

Definitely targeting the sophomore rookie Rbs next year. I used to be a firm believer in sophomore slumps (freeman, blount)

Richardson will probably go first rd but ill definitely be targeting Martin and Morris in the 2nd rd next yr


While RB's are important I would bet most aren't too happy with their first round RB's compared to some of the very good late value. There are probably only 2 first round caliber guys found in the top 10 of production (depending on format) this year Foster and Rice. Whereas the top 3 QB's (likely fantasy first rounders) are all doing well. I will still go best guy available.


still go rb all day, 5 PPG is what seperates qb #1 from qb #12 anybody going QB in the first is just wasting value.


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PostPosted: Mon 11.26.2012, 14:52 
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rugger48 wrote:
greenhornet wrote:
ryanpstew wrote:
This year solidified the rb first philosophy in fantasy for me, especially after all that "qbs need to be taken first" preseason talk this past yr.

I will be going rb rb in every draft from here on out in fantasy football

Definitely targeting the sophomore rookie Rbs next year. I used to be a firm believer in sophomore slumps (freeman, blount)

Richardson will probably go first rd but ill definitely be targeting Martin and Morris in the 2nd rd next yr


While RB's are important I would bet most aren't too happy with their first round RB's compared to some of the very good late value. There are probably only 2 first round caliber guys found in the top 10 of production (depending on format) this year Foster and Rice. Whereas the top 3 QB's (likely fantasy first rounders) are all doing well. I will still go best guy available.


still go rb all day, 5 PPG is what seperates qb #1 from qb #12 anybody going QB in the first is just wasting value.


Obviously this varies based on the format but I just did a quick check in my ESPN league and 9.7 PPG separated 1-12 QB and 7PPG separated 1-12 RB.

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PostPosted: Mon 11.26.2012, 14:54 
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greenhornet wrote:
rugger48 wrote:
greenhornet wrote:
ryanpstew wrote:
This year solidified the rb first philosophy in fantasy for me, especially after all that "qbs need to be taken first" preseason talk this past yr.

I will be going rb rb in every draft from here on out in fantasy football

Definitely targeting the sophomore rookie Rbs next year. I used to be a firm believer in sophomore slumps (freeman, blount)

Richardson will probably go first rd but ill definitely be targeting Martin and Morris in the 2nd rd next yr


While RB's are important I would bet most aren't too happy with their first round RB's compared to some of the very good late value. There are probably only 2 first round caliber guys found in the top 10 of production (depending on format) this year Foster and Rice. Whereas the top 3 QB's (likely fantasy first rounders) are all doing well. I will still go best guy available.


still go rb all day, 5 PPG is what seperates qb #1 from qb #12 anybody going QB in the first is just wasting value.


Obviously this varies based on the format but I just did a quick check in my ESPN league and 9.7 PPG separated 1-12 QB and 7PPG separated 1-12 RB.

Considering every single league I play in starts 2 or 3 RBs, you should probably be comparing to the PPG difference between RB 1-24 or 1-36 for a fair comparison.

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PostPosted: Mon 11.26.2012, 14:55 
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I'm fine with going Rice as my 1st round pick.... then grabbing Ryan as my qb in beginning of 5th this year. ;) (1.02 pick in $$ league)

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PostPosted: Mon 11.26.2012, 14:57 
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unimsw wrote:
greenhornet wrote:
rugger48 wrote:
greenhornet wrote:
ryanpstew wrote:
This year solidified the rb first philosophy in fantasy for me, especially after all that "qbs need to be taken first" preseason talk this past yr.

I will be going rb rb in every draft from here on out in fantasy football

Definitely targeting the sophomore rookie Rbs next year. I used to be a firm believer in sophomore slumps (freeman, blount)

Richardson will probably go first rd but ill definitely be targeting Martin and Morris in the 2nd rd next yr


While RB's are important I would bet most aren't too happy with their first round RB's compared to some of the very good late value. There are probably only 2 first round caliber guys found in the top 10 of production (depending on format) this year Foster and Rice. Whereas the top 3 QB's (likely fantasy first rounders) are all doing well. I will still go best guy available.


still go rb all day, 5 PPG is what seperates qb #1 from qb #12 anybody going QB in the first is just wasting value.


Obviously this varies based on the format but I just did a quick check in my ESPN league and 9.7 PPG separated 1-12 QB and 7PPG separated 1-12 RB.

Considering every single league I play in starts 2 or 3 RBs, you should probably be comparing to the PPG difference between RB 1-24 or 1-36 for a fair comparison.


This. There has been a lot of lower draft pick RB's that have busted out though this year too.

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PostPosted: Mon 11.26.2012, 15:08 
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unimsw wrote:
greenhornet wrote:
rugger48 wrote:
greenhornet wrote:
ryanpstew wrote:
This year solidified the rb first philosophy in fantasy for me, especially after all that "qbs need to be taken first" preseason talk this past yr.

I will be going rb rb in every draft from here on out in fantasy football

Definitely targeting the sophomore rookie Rbs next year. I used to be a firm believer in sophomore slumps (freeman, blount)

Richardson will probably go first rd but ill definitely be targeting Martin and Morris in the 2nd rd next yr


While RB's are important I would bet most aren't too happy with their first round RB's compared to some of the very good late value. There are probably only 2 first round caliber guys found in the top 10 of production (depending on format) this year Foster and Rice. Whereas the top 3 QB's (likely fantasy first rounders) are all doing well. I will still go best guy available.


still go rb all day, 5 PPG is what seperates qb #1 from qb #12 anybody going QB in the first is just wasting value.


Obviously this varies based on the format but I just did a quick check in my ESPN league and 9.7 PPG separated 1-12 QB and 7PPG separated 1-12 RB.

Considering every single league I play in starts 2 or 3 RBs, you should probably be comparing to the PPG difference between RB 1-24 or 1-36 for a fair comparison.


Just because you go QB or WR in the first doesn't mean you have to wait until the third to get a RB, so dropping down to 24 or 36 is a little drastic. However you would have to go to 24 to get the same disparity between 1-12 QB :-k . In addition when you look at the fact you could have had the #1 or 2 RB after the 1st (Peterson, Martin) waiting isn't always so bad. Whereas the consensus top 3 QB's Rodgers, Brady, Brees are all in the top 4 it just makes it a safer pick IMO. In the same format as referenced above Brees #1 QB is outscoring Peterson #1 RB by 102 whopping points. There is no perfect way to draft, I'm not insisting it has to be non-Rb but if I'm staring at Forte or Brees late first round I'm going Brees all day long.

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