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PostPosted: Wed 01.30.2013, 19:37 
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i know we have a thread for the 2013 rookies, but i think it's as good a time as any to start the discussion related to the draft that doesn't necessarily revolve solely around individual players. for instance, one thing i find very intriguing is the lack of top end QB talent in the draft, yet a ridiculously high number of teams at the top of the draft that could be considered QB needy. look at the top 10:

1 kansas city
2 jacksonville
3 oakland
4 philadelphia
5 detroit
6 cleveland
7 arizona
8 buffalo
9 new york jets
10 tennessee

as it stands right now, the only teams that would make my jaw drop by drafting a QB in the 1st round would be detroit and tennessee. something tells me there were be multiple trades for QBs in the first 10 picks, not because the players grade out that high, but because so many teams will be needing one and won't want to risk waiting until the top of the 2nd round.

rest of the draft order -

11 San Diego Chargers 7-9 .457
12 Miami Dolphins 7-9 .500
13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-9 .502
14 Carolina Panthers 7-9 .516
15 New Orleans Saints 7-9 .521
16 St. Louis Rams 7-8-1 .539
17 Pittsburgh Steelers 8-8 .465
18 Dallas Cowboys 8-8 .523
19 New York Giants 9-7 .521
20 Chicago Bears 10-6 .512
21 Cincinnati Bengals 10-6 .438
22 St. Louis Rams via Redskins** 10-6 .494
23 Minnesota Vikings 10-6 .520
24 Indianapolis Colts 11-5 .441
25 Seattle Seahawks 11-5 .504
26 Green Bay Packers 11-5 .508
27 Houston Texans 12-4 .496
28 Denver Broncos 13-3 .457
29 New England Patriots
30 Atlanta Falcons
31 San Francisco 49ers
32 Baltimore Ravens

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PostPosted: Wed 01.30.2013, 19:47 
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Doing a mock this year will be even more of a waste time than usual.

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PostPosted: Wed 01.30.2013, 19:53 
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endzoneview wrote:
Doing a mock this year will be even more of a waste time than usual.


Will that stop the ones who love to mock?

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PostPosted: Wed 01.30.2013, 20:03 
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OilersNut wrote:
endzoneview wrote:
Doing a mock this year will be even more of a waste time than usual.


Will that stop the ones who love to mock?


:lol: Probably not, but it will stop me. Maybe the picture will get clearer as it gets closer. It usually does, but man oh man, this year just seems like a true free for fall.

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PostPosted: Wed 01.30.2013, 20:38 
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on the flip side, it's a great draft to be at the top if you're looking for a 4-3 DE.

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PostPosted: Wed 01.30.2013, 20:53 
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My pull it out of my orifice prediction for KC as of this time

1.01: Luke Joekel

and by their 34th pick. They'll likely have to trade up
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PostPosted: Wed 01.30.2013, 21:05 
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my prediction at this point for the lions:

joeckel/fisher if available
their favorite available DE of moore, werner, mingo and ansah (totally believe he's in play for the lions)
milliner

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PostPosted: Thu 01.31.2013, 00:00 
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I saw a guess that Arizona might try to trade with Oakland to the 3 spot for a QB ... Geno Smith sliding was the guess.

One thing I wondered is whether the new salary structure for rookies changes the old draft value chart. The top of the draft has a steep value drop and that doesn't make as much sense now. Or maybe it is the opposite that the 1st round picks have higher value with the 5th year option.

The 5th year option looks like it makes the 11th pick worth more than the 10th pick:

As for first round draft picks, the amount of salary they’ll receive in their fifth year of play if their option is picked up by their respective team, depends upon where they were selected in the first round.

If a player is picked 1-10, then the 5th year option is going to be the average of the top-10 players at the respective player’s position. So, if you’re quarterback and go number-two in the Draft, then your fifth year option salary will be the average of the top-ten quarterbacks. The option is exercised after the third season, so it would be based upon the top-ten quarterback salaries at that time.

If you’re picked 11-32, then the 5th year club option is the average salary of the top 3rd through 25th player in that position.

To me, trading back from the top-10 picks has some advantage so the value chart should be lower

Here is a the standard draft value chart:
http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

By the chart, Detroit could trade the 5th pick (1700 points) for the 12th pick (1200 points) plus the 2nd rounder the 44th pick (460 points), but to me that seems in Detroit's favor, with the new contract. Any thoughts on the value of the picks? I think it is pretty clear that it also depends on the player available ... RG3 was considered a rare talent for the 2nd pick (or for any pick).


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PostPosted: Thu 01.31.2013, 00:21 
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Teams stopped using the draft value chart awhile ago, anybody still using it should be fired. pretty much worthless, alot of other factors are used.


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PostPosted: Thu 01.31.2013, 06:53 
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rugger48 wrote:
Teams stopped using the draft value chart awhile ago, anybody still using it should be fired. pretty much worthless, alot of other factors are used.


I actually think the rookie wage scale makes it relevant again.

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PostPosted: Thu 01.31.2013, 09:01 
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i would say detroit sits in an excellent spot to trade down this year with any team in the 6-9 range that is looking to leap frog up for a QB.

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PostPosted: Thu 01.31.2013, 09:09 
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Elmagister wrote:
rugger48 wrote:
Teams stopped using the draft value chart awhile ago, anybody still using it should be fired. pretty much worthless, alot of other factors are used.


I actually think the rookie wage scale makes it relevant again.



after seeing last years draft I dont see it.


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PostPosted: Thu 01.31.2013, 09:12 
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getdownmmmkay wrote:
i would say detroit sits in an excellent spot to trade down this year with any team in the 6-9 range that is looking to leap frog up for a QB.



I dont think any teams are trading up this year like last couple years. Its a down year and teams know it this year. I can see some other positions being traded up for. Maybe if Geno doesnt go #1, but the lions wont be in the that mix with the #5 pick. add to that possibility of Vick,palmer and smith all possible free agents.


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PostPosted: Thu 01.31.2013, 09:33 
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Elmagister wrote:
rugger48 wrote:
Teams stopped using the draft value chart awhile ago, anybody still using it should be fired. pretty much worthless, alot of other factors are used.


I actually think the rookie wage scale makes it relevant again.

I think other factors always were a consideration. The chart is just a progressive increasing point system. I would think teams have to have a chart on draft day to consider any trades. One 2nd round pick is not the same as another. So getting the 64th pick in the draft is different from getting the 33rd pick. I would think GM's need to have a combination of a draft projection with players likely too be available and a valuation of the players. Essentially the REAL trade value is in noting the tiers (same as in fantasy) and in not getting pushed across a tier division at a position of need. But the chart is a good short-hand to smoothly decreasing value, and that allows simple, generic evaluation.

Last year, Luck and RG3 were seen as almost equal and the top-tier of QB talent ... always a critical position. Washington traded for the 2nd pick, trading 1st and 2nd 2012 picks (6 and 38) and their 1st round of 2013 (22) and 2014 (unknown). By the standard shart, #2 is worth 2600 points. #6 is 1600 and #38 is 520 ... 2120 for those. The next year is usually equal to a round lower this year. 2013 2nd round, 22nd pick is 360 and the 2014 3rd round 22nd pick is 160. SO by chart value, the Redskins pay about 2640 if they are the 22nd pick of the draft in 2014. Maybe they are not using the charts anymore but the results match the chart system.

That trade took a LOT of time to work out, over the period leading up to the draft. Then in the draft itself, teams make complex trades within minutes. Certainly teams would be crazy to rely just on a chart, but the chart seems like a very good idea to have. I certainly think it would be a part of being prepared along with a draft board and player evaluation grades and rankings and tiers and evaluation of the existing team and every player in the league along with the salary cap implications of those players salaries in any trades and a projection of the other team needs and how their draft boards look. But I would think a chart would be in there. And if it is, I wonder if it has changed with the new contract deal. The 5th year change from picks 1-10 to 11-32 seems particularly important.

The biggest driver of trades is probably the guess that trading down will let you take the player you need and not the best player available, and trading up will allow taking the best player available. Since teams know the needs of the teams drafting in front of them and behind them, the small trade up and down seems a straightforward chart trade.


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PostPosted: Thu 01.31.2013, 09:36 
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rugger48 wrote:
getdownmmmkay wrote:
i would say detroit sits in an excellent spot to trade down this year with any team in the 6-9 range that is looking to leap frog up for a QB.



I dont think any teams are trading up this year like last couple years. Its a down year and teams know it this year. I can see some other positions being traded up for. Maybe if Geno doesnt go #1, but the lions wont be in the that mix with the #5 pick. add to that possibility of Vick,palmer and smith all possible free agents.


ok

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