Pats TEs moving forward

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Roto wrote:Aaron Hernandez reportedly underwent shoulder surgery this offseason.
Sources tell NFL.com that Hernandez will miss both OTAs and minicamps, but the "likelihood" is that he'll be ready for training camp. It's still a concern for a player that has struggled mightily to stay healthy, as he's missed 10 games over the last two seasons due to ankle, concussion and knee issues. It's unclear when this injury occurred, but the Patriots now have medical flags next to both their starting tight ends as Rob Gronkowski's arm woes continue. Hernandez has never made it through a full season healthy in his three-year NFL career.

Roto wrote:According to the Boston Herald, Rob Gronkowski (forearm) will delay surgery for several more weeks.
The surgery is on hold for now as Gronkowski remains on antibiotics to ensure that his infection is completely cleared. Once doctors are comfortable with that, surgeons will go back into Gronk's arm and put in a new plate to hold the bone together. At that point, 10 weeks of rehab will begin. Gronkowski is no lock to be ready for Week 1

Roto wrote:Patriots TE Jake Ballard (knee) is "ready to hit the field," but the team is going to "take it slow" with him.
Ballard is said to be "recovering nicely" from the torn left ACL he suffered just over 14 months ago. The Patriots will kick off their offseason workout program on Monday, and Ballard may be limited to just mental reps when the offense gets on the field. However, he's on track to be ready for OTAs in late May


Going to be an interesting preseason/camp if its just Uh-Oh & Fells healthy at TE, with the race on between Gronk, Ballard & AH
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Hernandez sounds like he'll be ready for week 1. He'll have good value, but he is of course a health risk.

Gronk has been having the same problem and it just seems like a freak thing. If it gets under control and he's ready to suit up week 1, you can't pass up on this guy. He may slide, but it's a mistake unless he's going to miss multiple games.

I'd guess Ballard offers little value unless both of the above guys are out.
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As a Patriots fan, I am confident that they will produce on the field.

But damn, I'm happy I don't own them in fantasy.
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I still take Gronk without thinking twice
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definitly a revisit in 12 weeks, right now not worried.
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endzoneview wrote:I still take Gronk without thinking twice

You almost have to. His upside is almost the same as Megatron's.
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Markulous wrote:
endzoneview wrote:I still take Gronk without thinking twice

His upside is almost the same as Megatron's.

Now that's a silly statement.
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Markulous wrote:
endzoneview wrote:I still take Gronk without thinking twice

You almost have to. His upside is almost the same as Megatron's.


Agree. There are very few difference makers and he's on the same level
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jnadke wrote:
Markulous wrote:
endzoneview wrote:I still take Gronk without thinking twice

His upside is almost the same as Megatron's.

Now that's a silly statement.


2 years ago, in standard PPR, he scored 29 points less than Megatron.
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jnadke wrote:
Markulous wrote:
endzoneview wrote:I still take Gronk without thinking twice

His upside is almost the same as Megatron's.

Now that's a silly statement.

Not really. He had 17 TDs in 2011 and was on pace for the same last year. When has Megatron ever eclipsed that? Megatron has more upside just because he gets more touches, but Gronkowski is in the better offense. So I stand by what I said. He's behind Megatron, but not by that far.
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jnadke wrote:
Markulous wrote:
endzoneview wrote:I still take Gronk without thinking twice

His upside is almost the same as Megatron's.

Now that's a silly statement.



You are right, his upside is higher.

TE:
In 2011, Gronk scored 20.93 ppg in my league.
Graham scored 18.38, Hernandez 15.32, Gates 14.6, Gonzalez 13.6.

In 2012, Gronk averaged 18.18 ppg, and Graham again came in second with 15.81.
Heath Miller was #5 with 13.9.

You can see that Gronk/Graham are the consistent top two, and compared to #5, Gronk offered 7.3 ppg advantage in 2011 (+4.3 in 2012).

WR:
In 2011, Calvin scored 22.45 ppg. #5 scored 18.24. (+4.2)
In 2012, Calvin scored 21.65 ppg. #5 scored 18.9. (+2.75)

In addition, as you only start 1 TE, the advantage is more steep. At WR, a team with the #5 WR instead of Calvin can start 1-2 other WR's (depending on league) that might give an offsetting advantage to mitigate the difference.

I think having the stud TE who can score 4+ more points than all but 2 other TE's gives more upside to your team.

And if you meant in the NFL, obviously they didn't mean TE will compare to WR, but Gronk set multiple records in 2011 for TE's.
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Upside is the wrong word I think.

The last two years - PPR, Megatron outscored him on a per game basis by 2.6 and 1.8 points per game in Shark League PPR scoring. Not a big difference but a difference nonetheless.

The impact that Gronk and last year Graham have is that they are significantly ahead of the third place and then lower TE's in per game scoring. Megatron doesn't have the same spread between him and the 3rd WR.

Not advocating one or the other except both are elite fantasy PPR players and while I'd take Megatron over Gronk, the difference impact isn't that big and not nearly as large as some make it out to be.

Edit add - posted before I saw Cy's post which takes twice as long to make the same point. :lol: :wink:
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You take Gronk.

I'll take Brady.

I'll be in the championship game.

You won't be.

/thread
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birddog wrote:You take Gronk.

I'll take Brady.

I'll be in the championship game.

You won't be.

/thread


I can find a QB. So can you. In our Shark league, you made it to the championship with Cam and Fitzpatrick.

In your defense...the Rodgers owner won it. :)
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jesteva wrote:Upside is the wrong word I think.

The last two years - PPR, Megatron outscored him on a per game basis by 2.6 and 1.8 points per game in Shark League PPR scoring. Not a big difference but a difference nonetheless.

The problem is (not directed at you but the thread in particular, but you illustrate a common point):

1. Rob Gronkowski's success is more tied to Tom Brady than Calvin Johnson is to Matthew Stafford.
2. Gronkowski has suffered far more injuries.
3. Gronkowski has to this date enjoyed playing in an offense where he was not the #1 receiver.

He can be shut down when teams chose to shut him down (Baltimore did, Denver did, Buffalo did), but to this date he's had the luxury of fairly weak coverage.


In terms of measuring upside, I'm not sure who's qualified to measure that, but Calvin Johnson is a far superior athlete.
Last edited by jnadke on Tue 04.16.2013, 16:48, edited 1 time in total.

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