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PostPosted: Thu 06.05.2014, 11:41 
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I'm interested to see the feedback on this - a lot of talk I see has charles/mccoy/ap (no particular order) going top 3 in standard leagues.

Anyone out there considering the likes of Calvin, Jimmy, or AJ that early in the first? Or perhaps someone else?

I mainly ask this due to feeling I've been too slow to adjust to what has changed over the past few years; less production from the RB spots and the league becoming even heavier in the passing category (didn't think that was even possible).

In 2013 I stuck with the tried and true RB/RB in the first 2 rounds in all of my leagues and, even though it wasn't entirely the reason for it, struggled the first half of the year until I was able to mix up my teams via trades/free agency.

I'd actually rather not have a top 3 pick and avoiding having to make this decision but would you feel justified taking one of the elite receiving (or te) threats top 3 this year? I realize the argument is most likely going to be supply/demand with there being so few bell cow type RB's these days, but still curious what feedback is posted.

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PostPosted: Thu 06.05.2014, 11:58 
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I think we get waaaaaaay too caught up in Player X vs. Y vs. Z with this type of discussion.

I'm going to try to analyze my specific league based on results of position vs. starting requirements vs. number of teams.

Ranking positions based on scoring and ignoring names might reveal the value of each position to my specific league. Looking backwards at a redraft in hindsight might show where the most impact can be made at certain positions.

Of course outliers like Peyton and Jimmy Graham last year will skew things, and the assumption that you could actually draft this year's Peyton as the 1st QB are necessary.

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PostPosted: Thu 06.05.2014, 11:59 
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I think you kind of answered your own question. If you have a top 3 pick, I don't see going anywhere other than RB.

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PostPosted: Fri 06.06.2014, 08:41 
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if you can get one of the "safe" and "elite" RBs in the 1st, you take one. as mentioned, there's pretty much 3 guys that are worthy. after that, all bets are off in the first round IMO. there just isn't the depth at RB that there used to be in FF. as such, there is a strong argument for grabbing a "safe" and "elite" player at one of the other positions, then worrying about RB later when you're picking among the same pool of RBBC or upside guys as everyone else.

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PostPosted: Fri 06.06.2014, 11:08 
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One of the podcasts I listen to suggested the following strategy: going QB/RB/WR/WR/WR, then coming back and grabbing your RB2, on the theory that if you could have a weakness in your lineup, RB2 is the place to have it.

I am in a 10-team league where most of the people grab QB early and if you don't get a good QB, you're hosed. So I tried this strategy, and I consistently love my teams. I am still managing to get Rashad Jennings as a RB2 and Toby Gerhart as a RB3.

Depending on my draft position, I am giving this strategy some serious thought.

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PostPosted: Fri 06.06.2014, 11:33 
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RB's are scarce, but the value beyond the top ones is diminishing, and the relatively bad fantasy predictions last year argue for caution also.

In my money league, we are non-PPR, 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE, Def&K. Scoring is 6-point TD's and only 1 point per 30 passing yards ... the rest is fairly regular.

In that league, generally if you score 100 points in a week you are performing average. Most teams have 3 guys that score the majority of that. But that can be any combo. A 25-pt QB, a 15-point WR, a 15-pt RB, for example puts 55 points up out of 3 starters. Another team with 2 top WR's still has the routine ASYS from 3 other slots. A lot of it comes down to the performance of the non-studs.

I have draft tendencies. I always draft crap at TE. I've missed so many times with higher picks at TE that I just hold my nose and take the late picks ... better to waste a late pick than an early pick (last year Jared Cook and that pre-season wonder TE from NE). I feel like I have a good eye for WR value, and pick up some WR every year that is starting, from a late pick (maybe everybody does that). RB's tend to elude me ... I've had a lot of misses, but I'm not sure if that is just because I'm bad, or if the position is unpredictable.

I do think that if your league is similar to mine, you can indeed pass on RB at any time, and take some later. A top QB, top level WR's ... those carry a team just as well as a team with 2 studs at RB, and some WW-level WR's.

Sharks are often biased towards the Shark league format, which is RB obsessive. Starting: 2-RB's, 2-WR's (which devalues the position due to the depth in the NFL ... way more quality WR's and only 24 fantasy starters), 1-QB (with 4-pt passing TD's, so the position is lower scoring, and with the NFL depth ... QB-12 is not much worse than the average fantasy starter). That league format leads to RB drafting.

With a top-6 pick, I can pretty much guarantee I am taking RB. I'm not setting my draft board yet, but I doubt that changes. After that, I just don't know yet.

You have to assume you will miss on some picks and I think the RB risk goes up quite a lot this year.

1-LeSean McCoy ... 10% chance of bust, 75% chance of top-5
2-Jamaal Charles ... 10% chance of bust, 75% chance of top-5
3-Adrian Peterson ... 10% chance of bust, 75% chance of top-5
4-Matt Forte ... 15% chance of bust, 75% chance of top-5
5-Eddie Lacy ... 20% chance of bust, 50% chance of top-5
6-Marshawn Lynch ... 20% chance of bust, 50% chance of top-5
then I think it gets risky
7-Montee Ball ... 30% chance of bust, 50% chance of top-10
8-Arian Foster ... 35% chance of bust, 50% chance of top-10

and after that I think the bust risk goes way up, and the chances at elite studly-ness go way down. I think Calvin has a 10% bust risk and a 75% chance of top-5. I think Graham has a 10% bust risk and a 90% chance of top-2.

I could see switching earlier this year. I think that RB's available later are not really any worse as draft guess than some of the top-10 RB's. Bush, Ellington, or Spiller in the 3rd round. Mathews or Gore in the 4th. Vereen, Jennings, or TRich in the 5th.

It really depends on the league settings. My money league has been dominated by a team with QB and WR studs. I feel much more confident in the stud WR's than the stud RB's, but I also feel much more confident in the late round WR's than the late round RB's. I put my effort into my non-PPR money league. In PPR, it seems that WR scoring is getting weighted VERY high. If you have two stud WR's you can rack up a lot of points ... say 6 receptions, 100 yards, 1 TD ... 22 points. Drafting an RB that ends up getting you 75 yards per game, and 10 TD's on the season is not going to be greater. Take the later RB, and the elite WR.

That of course depends also on the starting roster requirements. Shark leagues start such a low number of WR's that WR depth is ridiculous compared to RB scarcity.


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PostPosted: Fri 06.06.2014, 11:47 
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I don't know if I should count all busts the same. Julio Jones was a bust as a draft pick, but his IR meant you dropped him. I had TRich and he was the bust that just kept on giving. I kept him on my roster until late season, and he got more 2nd chances, as I started him more times than he deserved. Any player can go on IR in the first game of the season. That is just bad fantasy luck if you draft that Stud and then they go down. If I had to guess, I would say that RB's have a much higher injury risk, but about the same season ending IR risk. RB's often miss a few games, or one game, and then get back.

I drafted Randall Cobb and TRich. Neither was a factor in the second half of the fantasy season for my team. But Cobb was a great start, and an obvious drop. TRich was never a great start and a difficult drop. If you draft Calvin Johnson in the 1st round, you will get solid WR performance, unless he gets hurt. You draft Arian Foster in the 1st round, and you expect solid performance, but then again maybe Houston sucks, maybe he starts battling a back injury, and you keep getting 50-60 yards rushing, and one 2-TD game that makes you keep starting him (ASYS, 1st rounder, that big game).

WR busts may be easier to spot ... just something to think about.


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PostPosted: Fri 06.06.2014, 11:53 
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charles,mccoy,forte,peterson

#5 is where wr comes into play over rb (mega)
#6,#7 lacy,ball
#8,#9,#10 wr/te over rb
#11-12 wr,rb

thats how i have it currently


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PostPosted: Fri 06.06.2014, 12:01 
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i don't count inuries as "busts." injuries are going to happen and there's really no rhyme or reason to it. underperforming players based upon ADP or personal projections are "busts" in my eyes.

julio jones was the #1 PPR WR last year after week 5. to me, that's most definitely not a "bust."

then again, semantics.

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PostPosted: Fri 06.06.2014, 12:13 
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In recent years I have compressed my board to basically a few players per round. I'll keep an open mind if a guy slips further than expected, but this way I am only targeting players I have identified that I believe in. You're never going to get every player right, or even most players right, but all you need to be right about is who you pick.

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PostPosted: Fri 06.06.2014, 12:26 
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A lot of this comes down to your league setup like FFPC drafts gives TE's 1.5 per catch so that increases their value, if your in a 2 QB league that bumps the value there. There are several factors as well that go into all of this, some of us get more detailed then others. For myself I look at what that positions produced over the last 3-5 years in the way of scoring not the actual player who finished #1, then I plug in the players I think will perform as well as some other factors.

Some questions you need to ask yourself when doing this.

What are your league settings and starting requirements? this is the most crucial starting point.

When ranking players.

Did their offense get better? If they have a lead will this team throw or pound the rock?
Will their defense give up a lot of points? This keeps all the main players on the field?
Has their schedule gotten harder?
Where is the drop off from players from tier A to B etc.. and how many picks til you get to pick again this is while your drafting
How do your league mates draft? what sort of trends and tendencies do they have etc..
If you have players you feel will blow up and have a monster year don't over think it select him where you can, I would rather be wrong and have my guy then try and out smart others and miss my guy and him blow up.

last years final RB and WR points with 1ppr, notice the quick drop off for RB's from 1-10

jamaal charles 382.7 Calvin Johnson 304.9
leSean McCoy 312.2 Josh Gordon 299.2
matt Forte 304.6 Antonio Brown 298.7
knowshon 279.3 AJ Green 290.5
marshawn Lynch 260.2 Demaryius Thomas 287.7
Demarco Murray 246.2 Brandon Marshall 286.1
adrian Peterson 238.7 Alshon Jeffery 275.6
reggie Bush 229.7 Dez Bryant 270.5
eddie lacy 228.6 Eric Decker 269.1
chris johnson 221.3 Andre Johnson 268.8

There's a 161.4 pt drop from 1 to 10 over a 16 week season thats 10 pts a week, while for WR's the drop off is only 36.1. This can lead you to several ideas, load up on WR's since at times they can be more consistent in their scoring. But you can't ignore the RB spot to long or you'll be stuck with second guessing yourself on who to start each week.

Hope this helps if you have any questions shoot me a PM

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PostPosted: Fri 06.06.2014, 13:18 
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getdownmmmkay wrote:
i don't count inuries as "busts." injuries are going to happen and there's really no rhyme or reason to it. underperforming players based upon ADP or personal projections are "busts" in my eyes.

julio jones was the #1 PPR WR last year after week 5. to me, that's most definitely not a "bust."

then again, semantics.


Agreed.

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PostPosted: Fri 06.06.2014, 16:00 
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nicdolas wrote:
last years final RB and WR points with 1ppr, notice the quick drop off for RB's from 1-10

jamaal charles 382.7 Calvin Johnson 304.9
leSean McCoy 312.2 Josh Gordon 299.2
matt Forte 304.6 Antonio Brown 298.7
knowshon 279.3 AJ Green 290.5
marshawn Lynch 260.2 Demaryius Thomas 287.7
Demarco Murray 246.2 Brandon Marshall 286.1
adrian Peterson 238.7 Alshon Jeffery 275.6
reggie Bush 229.7 Dez Bryant 270.5
eddie lacy 228.6 Eric Decker 269.1
chris johnson 221.3 Andre Johnson 268.8

There's a 161.4 pt drop from 1 to 10 over a 16 week season thats 10 pts a week, while for WR's the drop off is only 36.1. This can lead you to several ideas, load up on WR's since at times they can be more consistent in their scoring. But you can't ignore the RB spot to long or you'll be stuck with second guessing yourself on who to start each week.

Hope this helps if you have any questions shoot me a PM


The problem I always have with this analysis, and it is one that gets a lot of attention, is that it leaves out the draft pick of the players, and the RB busts. Yes, RB's are scarce. But if the top ones are not any more likely to succeed than the bottom ones, don't draft as though picking first gets you the #1 RB.

Here is a 2013 ADP for the top 25 RB's:
1. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB
2. Martin, Doug TBB RB
3. Foster, Arian HOU RB
4. Charles, Jamaal KCC RB
5. Rice, Ray BAL RB
6. Spiller, C.J. BUF RB
7. Richardson, Trent IND RB
8. Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB
9. McCoy, LeSean PHI RB
10. Morris, Alfred WAS RB
11. Forte, Matt CHI RB
12. Johnson, Chris TEN RB
13. Jackson, Steven ATL RB
14. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB
15. Bush, Reggie DET RB
16. Ridley, Stevan NEP RB
17. Murray, DeMarco DAL RB
18. Wilson, David NYG RB
19. Gore, Frank SFO RB
20. Sproles, Darren NOS RB
21. McFadden, Darren OAK RB
22. Miller, Lamar MIA RB
23. Lacy, Eddie GBP RB
24. Mathews, Ryan SDC RB
25. Ball, Montee DEN RB hey ... where's Knowshon?

The problem with your tossing down the drop-off at RB is that it assumes that the position is predictable. Yes, drafting now, for last year, I want Jamaal Charles.

Compare that to WR:
1. Johnson, Calvin DET WR
2. Green, A.J. CIN WR
3. Bryant, Dez DAL WR
4. Marshall, Brandon CHI WR
5. Jones, Julio ATL WR
6. Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR
7. Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR
8. Johnson, Andre HOU WR
9. Cobb, Randall GBP WR
10. White, Roddy ATL WR
11. Cruz, Victor NYG WR
12. Jackson, Vincent TBB WR
13. Welker, Wes DEN WR
14. Colston, Marques NOS WR
15. Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR
16. Amendola, Danny NEP WR
17. Wayne, Reggie IND WR
18. Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR
19. Nelson, Jordy GBP WR
20. Smith, Torrey BAL WR
21. Garcon, Pierre WAS WR
22. Decker, Eric DEN WR
23. Brown, Antonio PIT WR
24. Wallace, Mike MIA WR
25. Smith, Steve CAR WR

The consensus top WR's were in fact, the top WR's. And it seems that is more often the case than with RB's.

To sum it up:
You definitely want to rate top RB's above top WR's, as they are scarcer.
You can more reliably rate the top WR's than the top RB's.
If you can't with confidence pick an RB that is going to be in the top level, take a WR and settle at RB. You might even draft the equivalent of Knowshon Moreno or Eddie Lacy ... that doesn't seem any more unlikely than drafting Rice, or Foster, or TRich or Spiller in the first round last year and then busting.

Which is better?
a draft pick with a 90% chance of 20 points per week (Calvin Johnson) and a 10% chance of way below expectations,
or:
a draft pick with a 50% chance of 20 points per week (any of last years top-10 RB's) and a 50% chance of failed expectations.

Remember most leagues, you only need 3-4 studs to win. You are almost certain to get a stud if you draft Megatron. If last year was typical, you were quite likely to not get a stud if you went RB in the 1st.


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PostPosted: Fri 06.06.2014, 16:16 
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Some seriously great responses in here - thanks for the input guys.

Lots to process.

I must say though I am intriguied by the generic approach post of RB/QB then 3 WRs and then RB2 - interesting point about if you're going to have a weakness let it be the RB2.

Beyond that a whole lot to re-read - I only skimmed briefly for now. :)

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PostPosted: Fri 06.06.2014, 16:40 
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I find it striking how well the WRs turned out.

1 Calvin Johnson 304.9 .................. drafted 1
2 Josh Gordon 299.2 ...................... drafted late. breakout and suspension issue.
3 Antonio Brown 298.7 .................. drafted 23
4 AJ Green 290.5 ........................... drafted 2
5 Demaryius Thomas 287.7 ........... drafted 6
6 Brandon Marshall 286.1 .............. drafted 4
7 Alshon Jeffery 275.6 ................... drafted late. breakout year.
8 Dez Bryant 270.5 ........................ drafted 3
9 Eric Decker 269.1 ....................... drafted 22
10 Andre Johnson 268.8 ................. drafted 8

And looking at the RB's from 2012 ... they were pretty unpredictable also:
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/42667/353/2012-adp-vs-reality-rbs

I'm convincing myself more and more that it is not crazy to pass on early RB's. I still see the scarcity problem, but it also depends on how well I think I can predict RB's.


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