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2010 Division Round: Studs and Duds of 2009

Welcome
to the Division Round edition of the Brew Crew Corner. They say hindsight is
20/20. It is the perception of the significance and nature of events after they
have occurred. If you knew at your draft the information I am giving you today,
you would have had the greatest season ever. Unfortunately it doesn’t work that
way, but we can look back to see which players we were right on and those that
were very far off from anyone’s predictions. This can help us in 2010 where we
will be bombarded with rankings from May through August and have to decipher
which players have value and which of these are overrated.

Studs in fantasy football
are players you draft high that will produce great numbers. These players could
also be weekly studs that are hot at the moment or players that perform well
for your individual team. Whichever they might be, we can all agree that we
expect these players to carry our squad and win us games.

Duds in fantasy football
are players that we perceived to be studs during the start of the season but
have performed poorly. This could be caused by a number of facts. Injuries are
the most common cause followed by team performance. Whatever the case may be,
we are disappointed when these players fail to meet expectations.

I will break down each
offensive player by group. It will list there draft average draft position
(ADP), the ranking they finished the season with and their value. The ADP is
based on My Fantasy League ADPs for points-per-reception leagues who held live
drafts after August 1, 2009. Players with an asterisk had sustained an injury
during the season.

 

QB
ADP

QB
RK

QB
with Negative Value

VALUE

23

50

Pennington

,

Chad

MIA QB*

-27

35

58

Rosenfels,
Sage MIN QB

-23

33

53

Leinart,
Matt ARI QB

-20

32

48

Vick,
Michael PHI QB

-16

19

33

Edwards,
Trent BUF QB

-14

34

45

Leftwich,
Byron TBB QB*

-11

9

19

Ryan,
Matt ATL QB

-10

27

36

Hill,
Shaun SFO QB

-9

6

14

Warner,
Kurt ARI QB

-8

12

18

Palmer,

Carson CIN QB

-6

22

28

Delhomme,
Jake CAR QB*

-6

15

21

Hasselbeck,
Matt SEA QB

-6

31

37

Russell,
JaMarcus OAK QB

-6

2

7

Brady,
Tom NEP QB

-5

5

9

Rivers,
Philip SDC QB

-4

8

12

McNabb,
Donovan PHI QB

-4

28

32

Collins,
Kerry TEN QB

-4

16

20

Cassel

, Matt KCC QB

-4

10

13

Cutler,
Jay CHI QB

-3

3

5

Manning,

Peyton

IND
QB

-2

36

38

Culpepper,
Daunte DET QB

-2

37

39

Anderson,
Derek CLE QB

-2

1

2

Brees,
Drew NOS QB

-1

29

30

Quinn,
Brady CLE QB*

-1

30

31

Bulger,
Marc STL QB*

-1

 

The quarterback group has
been the most consistent for the Top 12 ADP with an average of +2.1, the
only positive average of the all the positions. One of the biggest draft day
changes was the addition of Brett Favre. Those who drafted Sage Rosenfels lost
considerable value while those who took Favre still got value for their
selection. Interesting how the Michael Vick preseason hype overvalued his draft
ADP. Of the Top 10 negative draft values, Chad Pennington, Matt Ryan, Trent
Edwards, Kurt Warner and Carson Palmer were starters that were a
disappointment. Those who drafted Matt Leinart in hopes of Warner getting hurt
or benched wasted a selection.

 

QB
ADP

QB
RK

QB
with Positive Value

VALUE

38

24

Smith,
Alex SFO QB

14

39

25

Young,
Vince TEN QB

14

40

27

Freeman,
Josh TBB QB

13

18

6

Favre,
Brett MIN QB

12

24

15

Campbell,
Jason WAS QB

9

11

3

Schaub,
Matt HOU QB

8

17

11

Garrard,
David JAC QB

6

13

8

Roethlisberger,
Ben PIT QB

5

21

16

Orton,
Kyle DEN QB

5

14

10

Manning,
Eli NYG QB

4

4

1

Rodgers,
Aaron GBP QB

3

7

4

Romo,
Tony DAL QB

3

20

17

Flacco,
Joe BAL QB

3

25

23

Sanchez,
Mark NYJ QB

2

26

26

Stafford

, Matthew DET QB*

0

 

In the quarterback group
that posted positive value, Brett Favre and Matt Schaub had the greatest impact
value. Alex Smith and Vince Young were waiver wire gems that helped owners
dealing with injuries or for matchups. Josh Freeman would have had more value
had he been the starter since Week 1. The other top rookie quarterbacks – Mark
Sanchez and Matthew Stafford – finished around where they were selected in
drafts.

 

RB ADP

RB RK

RB With Negative Draft Value

VALUE

75

178

Rhodes, Dominic FA* RB

-103

68

177

Jones, Kevin CHI RB*

-109

66

160

Duckett, T.J. FA* RB*

-94

49

136

Davis, James CLE RB*

-87

79

143

Ringer, Javon TEN RB

-64

81

139

Gado, Samkon STL RB

-58

80

131

Jones, Greg JAC RB*

-51

73

123

Goodson, Mike CAR RB

-50

32

81

White, LenDale TEN RB

-49

11

56

Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

-45

58

107

James, Edgerrin FA RB

-49

46

91

Graham, Earnest TBB RB*

-45

27

69

Parker, Willie PIT RB

-42

67

109

Hillis, Peyton DEN RB

-42

14

53

Portis, Clinton WAS RB*

-39

77

113

Ware, Danny NYG RB

-36

20

52

McFadden, Darren OAK RB

-32

37

68

Washington

,

Leon

NYJ
RB*

-31

34

60

Brown, Donald

IND RB

-26

26

51

Johnson, Larry CIN RB

-25

22

46

Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB

-24

4

28

Turner, Michael ATL RB

-24

15

38

Brown, Ronnie MIA RB*

-23

47

70

Taylor, Fred NEP RB

-23

28

50

Ward, Derrick TBB RB

-22

54

73

McClain, Le’Ron BAL RB

-19

56

75

Coffee, Glen SFO RB

-19

5

23

Tomlinson, LaDainian SDC RB

-18

19

37

Bush, Reggie NOS RB

-18

10

27

Slaton, Steve HOU RB*

-17

38

54

Lewis, Jamal CLE RB*

-16

48

63

Norwood

,
Jerious ATL RB

-15

12

26

Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB*

-14

63

77

Scott, Bernard CIN RB

-14

30

42

Jones, Felix DAL RB

-12

52

61

Greene, Shonn NYJ RB

-9

13

22

Barber,

Marion
DAL RB

-9

3

11

Forte, Matt CHI RB

-8

7

15

Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

-8

29

36

Wells, Chris ARI RB

-7

17

20

Smith, Kevin DET RB*

-3

18

21

Thomas,

Pierre
NOS RB

-3

76

79

Jennings

,
Rashad JAC RB

-3

1

2

Peterson,

Adrian
MIN RB

-1

2

3

Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB

-1

61

62

Betts, Ladell WAS RB*

-1

 

There is nothing hurts
more than a first-round bust. The majority of first-round picks are running
backs, as eight of the first 12 picks were running backs. This season the first
round was filled with plenty of indecision of where players should be selected.
No player was immune to scrutiny as owners could argue why some players should
go lower or higher in drafts. The running back position had the most flux in
terms of value. In fact, the Top 12 running backs combined for an average of
-10.4 value. This is the most change of any other skill position. From the Top
12 running backs, nine of them posted a negative value. The most disappointing
players were Brian Westbrook, Michael Turner, LaDainian Tomlinson and Brandon
Jacobs. Matt Forte and DeAngelo Williams were the next running backs that posted
second-round numbers. Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew finished just one spot
off from where they were drafted.

 

RB ADP

RB RK

RB with Positive Draft Value

VALUE

57

8

Williams, Ricky MIA RB

49

78

31

Forsett, Justin SEA RB

47

70

24

Harrison, Jerome CLE RB

46

50

12

Charles, Jamaal KCC RB

38

42

14

Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB

28

82

49

Morris, Maurice DET RB

33

43

13

Jackson, Fred BUF RB

30

55

25

Williams, Carnell TBB RB

30

71

47

Fargas, Justin OAK RB

24

51

29

Maroney, Laurence NEP RB

22

25

4

Rice, Ray BAL RB

21

39

19

Hightower, Tim ARI RB

20

62

43

Bell

,
Mike NOS RB

19

59

40

Buckhalter, Correll DEN RB

19

33

16

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

17

23

7

Jones, Thomas NYJ RB

16

60

44

Faulk, Kevin NEP RB

16

31

17

Benson, Cedric CIN RB

14

21

10

Addai, Joseph

IND RB

11

45

34

McGahee, Willis BAL RB

11

40

30

Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB

10

41

32

McCoy, LeSean PHI RB

9

53

45

Bush, Michael OAK RB

8

65

57

Morris, Sammy NEP RB

8

8

1

Johnson, Chris TEN RB

7

16

9

Grant, Ryan GBP RB

7

64

58

Choice, Tashard DAL RB

6

72

66

Brown, Chris HOU RB

6

24

18

Moreno

,
Knowshon DEN RB

6

69

65

Jackson,

Brandon
GBP RB

4

9

5

Gore, Frank SFO RB

4

44

41

Taylor,

Chester
MIN RB

3

35

33

Sproles, Darren SDC RB

2

36

35

Jones, Julius SEA RB

1

74

74

Moore, Mewelde PIT RB

0

6

6

Jackson, Steven STL RB

0

 

Where there is a drop off
from the first-round running backs, there are plenty of other players that step
in and produce. Ricky Williams was producing well in a timeshare situation with
Ronnie Brown, but once Brown went down for the season, Williams prove to be one
of the top value running backs this year. From the Top 12 running backs, Chris
Johnson outproduced his value by seven spots. Frank Gore had a value of +4
while Steven Jackson’s No. 6 ranking was exactly how he finished the season.
The running backs picked up on the waiver wire produce great value as player
such as Justin Forsett, Jerome Harrison, Jamaal Charles and Carnell Williams
all helped teams. Ray Rice and Thomas Jones were players taken outside the Top
20 running backs that finished in the Top 10 at the end of the season. Rice
finished fourth overall among running backs.

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