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2011 Conference Championships: Scoring Trends of the 2010 Season

Welcome to the Conference Championship edition of the Brew Crew Corner. We are now down to the final four teams fighting for a spot in the Super Bowl. Those players that were selected to the Pro Bowl and don’t make it to the big game will now be able to attend next week’s Pro Bowl. I’m making sure to watch every game left this season. You never know if these will be the only games we will get to see in 2011.

This week we’ll look at the scoring trends of the NFL and how they compare to previous years.

SCORING TRENDS

PPG

Total points

Rush TD

Rec. TD

Return TD

D/ST TD

2010

22.04

11,283

399

751

36

84

2009

21.46

10,991

429

710

28

80

2008

22.03

11,279

476

646

29

95

2007

21.69

11,104

386

720

42

95

Scoring rebounded in 2010 and was the highest over the past four seasons. Rushing touchdowns were the lowest since 2007 while receiving touchdowns increased dramatically from 2009. Special teams and defensive touchdowns also increased from 2009.     

KICKER TRENDS

FGM

FG Att.

Pct

Blk. FG

XPM

XP Att.

Pct

Blk. XP

2010

794

964

82.81

19

1203

1214

99.1

3

2009

756

930

81.38

21

1165

1185

98.5

15

2008

845

1000

84.56

22

1170

1176

99.4

3

2007

795

960

82.97

19

1165

1178

99.0

7

As with the touchdowns, the number of field goals that were made increased, which added to the overall scoring. The kicking accuracy has also increased while the number of blocked kicks declined.
        

Quarterback Position:         
        
The top overall quarterback in 2007 was Tom Brady, who scored 391 fantasy points for the season. That year, the Top 10 quarterbacks had two 300-plus fantasy point scorers. The next seven quarterbacks finished with between 259-292 fantasy points. Jay Cutler finished 10th with less than 250 fantasy points (239). In that season, 15 quarterbacks finished with 200-plus fantasy points.

The top overall quarterback in 2008 was Drew Brees who scored 333 fantasy points. That year, the Top 10 quarterbacks had three 300-plus fantasy point scorers. The next six quarterbacks finished between 252-299 fantasy points. Tyler Thigpen, who finished with 236 fantasy points, was the only quarterback to finish with less than 250 fantasy points. In that season, 21 quarterbacks finished with 200-plus fantasy points.

The top overall quarterback in 2009 was Aaron Rodgers, who scored 363 fantasy points. That year, the Top 10 quarterbacks had five 300-plus fantasy point scorers. The next five quarterbacks finished with between 295-265 fantasy points. That season, 19 quarterbacks finished with 200-plus fantasy points.

The top overall quarterback in 2010 was Michael Vick, who scored 336 fantasy points. This year, the Top 10 quarterbacks had six 300-plus fantasy point scorers. The next four quarterbacks finished between 273-264 fantasy points. This season, 21 quarterbacks finished with 200-plus fantasy points.

Three-year Top 10 Quarterback average: 2008 – 285.2 fantasy points, 2009 – 265.6 fantasy points, 2010 – 295.7 fantasy points.

Running Back Position:  
       
        
The top overall running back in 2007 was Brian Westbrook, who scored 412 fantasy points. That year, the Top 10 running backs had two 400-plus fantasy point scorers. The next two running backs finished between 310-327 fantasy points. The last six running backs finished between 256-296 fantasy points. In that season, 21 running backs finished with 200-plus fantasy points.

The top overall running back in 2008 was Matt Forte, who scored 350 fantasy points. That year, no one had 400-plus fantasy points. The next nine running backs scored between 301-344 fantasy points. That season, 23 running backs scored 200-plus fantasy points.

The top overall running back in 2009 was Chris Johnson, who scored 450 fantasy points. That year, the Top 10 running backs had just one running back with 400-plus fantasy points (Johnson). The next four running backs finished between 311-377 fantasy points. The last five running backs finished between 274-293 fantasy points. That season, 24 running backs finished with 200-plus fantasy points.

The top overall running back in 2010 was Arian Foster, who scored 443 fantasy points. This year, the Top 10 running backs had just one running back with 400-plus fantasy points (Foster). The next seven running backs finished with between 302-336 fantasy points. The last two running backs finished with 289 and 295 fantasy points. This season, 23 running backs finished with 200-plus fantasy points.

Three-year Top 10 running back average: 2008 – 256.2 fantasy points, 2009 – 326.9 fantasy points, 2010 – 325.9 fantasy points.

Wide Receiver Position:
        

The top overall wide receiver in 2007 was Randy Moss, who scored 378 fantasy points. In that year, the Top 10 wide receivers had two 300-plus fantasy point scorers. The next eight wide receivers finished between 270-299 fantasy points. In that season, 21 wide receivers scored 200-plus fantasy points.

The top overall wide receiver was 2008 was Andre Johnson, who scored 314 fantasy points. That year, the top wide receivers had two 300-plus fantasy point scorers. The next six finished between 251-278 fantasy points. The last two wide receivers had 242 fantasy points. That season, 20 wide receivers scored 200-plus fantasy points.

The top overall wide receiver in 2009 was once again Andre Johnson, who scored 306 fantasy points. That year, the Top 10 wide receivers had one wide receiver with 300-plus fantasy points (Johnson). The next nine wide receivers finished with between 255-281 fantasy points. That season, 21 wide receivers scored 200-plus fantasy points.

The top overall wide receiver in 2010 was Roddy White, who scored 310 fantasy points. This year, the Top 10 wide receivers had one wide receiver with 300-plus fantasy points (White). The next six wide receivers finished with between 250-280 fantasy points. This season, 20 wide receivers scored 200-plus fantasy points.

Three-year Top 10 wide receiver average: 2008 – 266.8 fantasy points, 2009 – 274.1 fantasy points, 2010 – 264.2 fantasy points.   
      

Tight End Position:

The top overall tight end in 2007 was Jason Witten, who scored 245 fantasy points. In that year, the Top 10 tight ends had four 200-plus fantasy point scorers. The next three tight ends finished with between 151-187 fantasy points. The last two tight ends finished with between 130-135 fantasy points. In that season, 15 tight ends scored 100-plus fantasy points.

The top overall tight end in 2008 was Tony Gonzalez, who scored 254 fantasy points. That year, the Top 10 tight ends had one 200-plus fantasy point scorer. The next five tight ends finished with between 162-196 fantasy points. The last four tight ends finished with between 133-141 fantasy points. That season, 18 tight ends scored 100-plus fantasy points.

The top overall tight end in 2009 was Dallas Clark, who scored 263 fantasy points. That year, the Top 10 tight ends had six 200-plus fantasy point scorers. The next four tight ends finished with between 163-188 fantasy points. That season, 19 tight ends scored 100-plus fantasy points.

The top overall tight end in 2010 was Jason Witten, who scored 242 fantasy points. This year, the Top 10 tight ends had six tight ends with 200-plus fantasy points. The next four tight ends finished with between 163-188 fantasy points. This season, 19 tight ends scored 100-plus fantasy points.

Three-year Top 10 tight end average: 2008 – 168.6 fantasy points, 2009 – 206.3 fantasy points, 2010 – 175.9 fantasy points.

Kicker Position:

The top overall kicker in 2007 was Mason Crosby, who scored 178 fantasy points. In that year, the Top 10 kickers had nine 150-plus fantasy point scorers. The last kicker finished with 146 fantasy points. In that season, 28 kickers scored 100-plus fantasy points.

The top overall kicker in 2008 was Stephen Gostkowski, who scored 185 fantasy points. That year, the top kickers had 13 150-plus fantasy point scorers. In that season, 30 kickers scored 100-plus fantasy points.

The top overall kicker in 2009 was David Akers, who scored 172 fantasy points. That year, the Top 10 kickers had nine with 150-plus fantasy points. The next-last kicker finished with 145 fantasy points. That season, 26 kickers scored 100-plus fantasy points.

The top overall kicker in 2010 was Sebastian Janikowski who scored 183 fantasy points. This year, the Top 10 kickers had seven with 150-plus fantasy points. The next two kickers finished with 146 and 140 fantasy points. This season, 25 kickers scored 100-plus fantasy points.

Three-year Top 10 kicker average: 2008 – 165.5 fantasy points, 2009 – 156.6 fantasy points, 2010 – 157.5 fantasy points.   

Defense Position:
        
        
The top overall defense in 2007 was the San Diego Chargers, who scored 250 fantasy points. That year, the top defenses had one 250-plus fantasy point scorer. The next seven defenses finished with between 138-204 fantasy points. The last two defenses finished with between 197-199 fantasy points. In that season, 26 defenses scored 150-plus fantasy points.

The top overall defense in 2008 was the Philadelphia Eagles, who scored 236 fantasy points. That year, the top defenses had no one with 250-plus fantasy points. The next four defenses finished with between 201-235 fantasy points. The last five defenses finished with between 189-199 fantasy points. That season, 18 defenses scored 150-plus fantasy points.

The top overall defense in 2009 was the Green Bay Packers, who scored 228 fantasy points. That year, the Top 10 defenses had no one with 250-plus fantasy points. The top five defenses finished with between 205-228 fantasy points. The last five defenses finished with between 182-198 fantasy points. That season, 24 defenses scored 150-plus fantasy points.  

The top overall defense in 2010 was the Pittsburgh Steelers, who scored 230 fantasy points. This year, the Top 10 defenses had no one with 250-plus fantasy points. The next four defenses finished with between 200-213 fantasy points. The last four defenses finished with between 187-199 fantasy points. This season, 23 defenses scored 150-plus fantasy points.

Three-year Top 10 defense average: 2008 – 208.1 fantasy points, 2009 – 203.1 fantasy points, 2010 – 203.5 fantasy points.

NFC Championship Game: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

(Sunday Jan. 23, 3 p.m.)

Packers Pass Offense: 5th, Run Offense: 24th
Packers Pass Defense: 5th, Run Defense: 18th

Bears Pass Offense: 28th, Pass Offense: 22nd
Bears Pass Defense: 20th, Pass Defense: 2nd

First Meeting: Bears 20, Packers 17 (Week 3)
Second Meeting: Packers 10, Bears 3 (Week 17)

It is always good to see one of the league’s oldest rivalries battling for the right to go to the Super Bowl. If the Bears would have won the second regular season game it would have prevented the Packers from making the playoffs.

I got a bad feeling that it will come back to haunt them. The Packers are on a roll and the Bears will need to play a near-perfect game if they want to win.

Prediction:
Packers 28, Bears 21

AFC Championship Game: New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers

(Sunday, Jan. 23, 6:30 p.m.)

Jets Pass Offense: 22nd, Run Offense: 4th
Jets Pass Defense: 6th, Run Defense: 3rd

Steelers Pass Offense: 14th, Pass Offense: 11th
Steelers Pass Defense: 12th, Pass Defense: 1st

First Meeting:
Jets 22, Steelers 17 (Week 15)

The Steelers enter the game as the favorite but this game could go either way. As we saw in the game between the Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, turnovers are game changers. These two teams met in the regular season with the Jets winning that game. These teams have one playoff meeting in 2005 won by the Steelers. It would be ironic if the Steelers’ trade of Santonio Holmes came back to hurt them. I still see the Steelers pulling this out but by a very slim margin.

Prediction:
Steelers 21, Jets 20

Conference Championship: The four remaining teams have all won at least one Super Bowl in their history. The Steelers lead with six championships.

Good luck to your team. Follow @BrewCrewCorner
 
Cheers!

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