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2011 Divisional Round: Studs and Duds of 2010

Welcome to the Division Round edition of the Brew Crew Corner. One of the things I like to do during the postseason is to look back on how players performed for the year. We all have our own rankings and most of us follow the average draft position (ADP) of players compiled through multiple drafts. I will look at players by position and show a value of a plus or minus based on their ADP and where they finished the season. Looking at these statistics can help you answer questions such as what players were overhyped, what players were values and which injuries hurt teams the most.

Studs in fantasy football are players you draft high because they are expected to perform the best. Some of these players are easy to identify such as Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson and Andre Johnson. Other players step up and become studs such as Michael Vick and Arian Foster. These players could also be weekly studs that are hot at the moment or players that perform well for your individual team. Whichever they might be, we can all agree that we expect these players to carry our squad and win us games.

Duds in fantasy football are players that we perceived to be studs during the start of the season but have performed poorly. This could be caused by a number of reasons. Injuries are the most common cause followed by team performance. Whatever the case might be, we are disappointed when these players fail to meet expectations.

I will break down each group by position. The ADP is based on My Fantasy League’s ADP for points per reception leagues who held live drafts after Aug. 1, 2010. Players with an asterisk had sustained an injury during the season.

Top 20 Quarterback Values

1

Vick, Michael PHI

34

2

Freeman, Josh TB

23

3

Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF

19

4

Hill, Shaun DET

15

5

Kitna, Jon DAL

15

6

Garrard, David JAC*

11

7

Orton, Kyle DEN

8

8

Cassel
, Matt KC

6

9

Manning, Eli NYG

5

10

Bradford, Sam STL

5

11

Rivers, Philip SDC

3

12

Hasselbeck, Matt SEA

3

13

Palmer, Carson CIN

2

14

Sanchez, Mark NYJ

2

15

Ryan, Matt ATL

1

16

Campbell, Jason OAK

1

17

Manning, Peyton IND

0

18

Tebow, Tim DEN

0

19

Clausen, Jimmy CAR

0

20

Rodgers, Aaron GB

-1

Injuries at the quarterback position are unavoidable. If you are lucky to have a quarterback that plays all 16 games, then you were in good shape. Injuries and poor play helped put some of these players at the top of the list.

Top 20 Quarterbacks that Disappointed

1

Leinart, Matt HOU

-53

2

Kolb, Kevin PHI

-28

3

Romo, Tony DAL QB*

-26

4

Stafford
, Matthew DET*

-24

5

Favre, Brett MIN

-18

6

Young, Vince TEN*

-15

7

Delhomme, Jake CLE

-14

8

Edwards, Trent BUF/JAC

-14

9

Jackson, Tarvaris MIN*

-14

10

Moore, Matt CAR*

-11

11

McNabb, Donovan WAS

-6

12

Smith, Alex SF

-6

13

Flacco, Joe BAL

-4

14

Henne
, Chad
MIA

-4

15

Brees, Drew NO

-3

16

Brady, Tom NEP

-2

17

Schaub, Matt HOU

-2

18

Cutler, Jay CHI

-2

19

Anderson, Derek ARI

-2

20

Roethlisberger, Ben PIT

-1

The quarterback position was probably the easiest position to assess value this year. With the exception of a few players, quarterbacks finished about where we though they would. It’s always good to see the top quarterbacks such as Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning finishing around the same spot as they were drafted.

Top 20 Running Back Values

1

Hillis, Peyton CLE

60

2

Green-Ellis, BenJarvus NE

58

3

Tolbert, Mike SD

55

4

Blount, LeGarrette TB

51

5

Woodhead, Danny NE

49

6

Torain, Ryan WAS

49

7

Goodson, Mike CAR

45

8

Jackson, Brandon GB

43

9

Williams, Keiland WAS

39

10

Ivory, Christopher NO

39

11

Morris, Maurice DET

38

12

Kuhn, John GB

33

13

Reece, Marcel OAK

32

14

McFadden, Darren OAK

32

15

Lynch, Marshawn BUF/SEA

30

16

Foster, Arian HOU

24

17

Jackson, Fred BUF

23

18

Tomlinson, LaDainian NYJ

20

19

Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG

17

20

McCoy, LeSean PHI

13

There are always running backs that we pick up over the course of the season that produce great value, but this season there was by far more undrafted players we could depend on to start weekly then in any previous season. The middle round running backs produced some great players as well.

Top 20 Running Backs that Disappointed

1

Grant, Ryan GB*

-119

2

Hardesty, Montario CLE*

-131

3

Johnson, Larry FA*

-108

4

White, LenDale DEN*

-104

5

Huggins, Kareem TB*

-96

6

Slaton, Steve HOU

-68

7

Williams, DeAngelo CAR*

-53

8

Maroney, Laurence DEN

-49

9

Wells, Chris ARI

-41

10

Thomas, Pierre NO*

-36

11

Spiller, C.J. BUF

-36

12

Portis, Clinton WAS*

-36

13

Washington
, Leon SEA

-36

14

Harrison, Jerome PHI

-35

15

Morris, Sammy NE

-30

16

Bush, Reggie NO

-30

17

Addai, Joseph IND

-28

18

Greene, Shonn NYJ

-26

19

Mathews, Ryan SD

-23

20

Stewart, Jonathan CAR

-18

Injuries to running backs are the hardest blow to a team’s lineup. The Top 8 running backs taken performed according to how we thought they would do with the exception of Arian Foster winning the rushing title. DeAngelo Williams, Ryan Grant and Pierre Thomas disappointed due to injury while Shonn Greene and C.J. Spiller in my opinion were the biggest duds of 2010.

Top 20 Wide Receiver Values

1

Lloyd, Brandon DEN

93

2

Johnson, Stevie BUF

86

3

Branch, Deion NE

56

4

Armstrong, Anthony WAS

55

5

Bess, Davone MIA

53

6

Moore
, Lance NO

52

7

Amendola, Danny STL

49

8

Manningham, Mario NYG

46

9

Thomas, Mike JAC

40

10

Williams, Mike TB

31

11

Jones, James GB

28

12

Williams, Mike SEA

22

13

Walter, Kevin HOU

21

14

Wallace, Mike PIT

17

15

Burleson, Nate DET

17

16

Moss, Santana WAS

16

17

Bowe, Dwayne KC

15

18

Mason, Derrick BAL

12

19

Maclin, Jeremy PHI

12

20

Edwards, Braylon NYJ

11

The wide receiver group is the hardest of all the positions to draft because of how inconsistent players can be from one year to the next. The Top 3 wide receiver values were all waiver pickups that played well this season.

Top 20 Wide Receivers that Disappointed

1

Gonzalez, Anthony IND*

-98

2

Edelman, Julian NE

-93

3

Aromashodu, Devin CHI

-87

4

Schilens, Chaz OAK

-77

5

Moss, Randy NE/MIN/TEN

-73

6

Rice, Sidney MIN*

-68

7

Berrian, Bernard MIN

-67

8

Jackson, Vincent SD*

-63

9

Tate, Golden SEA

-58

10

McCluster, Dexter KC

-56

11

Smith, Steve CAR

-50

12

Smith, Steve NYG*

-45

13

Houshmandzadeh, T.J. BAL

-45

14

Sims-Walker, Mike JAC

-30

15

Driver, Donald GB

-27

16

Hester, Devin CHI

-20

17

Bryant, Dez DAL*

-20

18

Ochocinco
, Chad
CIN

-19

19

Crabtree, Michael SF

-19

20

Evans, Lee BUF*

-19

As I mentioned, the wide receiver position can be inconsistent from year to year and throughout the season. As with the players that had value there are plenty of receivers that let us down. Randy Moss and Mike Sims-Walker were my duds of 2010.

Top 15 Tight End Values

1

Lewis, Marcedes JAC

26

2

Watson, Ben CLE

20

3

Tamme, Jacob IND

20

4

Pettigrew, Brandon DET

18

5

Moeaki, Tony KC

16

6

Dreessen, Joel HOU

13

7

Gronkowski, Rob NE

11

8

Hernandez, Aaron NE

10

9

Graham, Jimmy NO

9

10

Fells, Daniel STL

6

11

Cooley, Chris WAS

5

12

Fasano, Anthony MIA

5

13

Keller, Dustin NYJ

4

14

Witten
, Jason DAL

4

15

Davis
, Vernon SF

2

I felt that the tight end position this year was a very week and didn’t provide the score it has in the past. Unless you had a Top 3 tight end, your best bet this season was to work the waiver wire according to the matchups.
Marcedes Lewis was the best value this season as a mid-season pickup.

Top 15 Tight Ends that Disappointed

1

Finley, Jermichael GBP*

-34

2

Clark, Dallas IND*

-27

3

Carlson, John SEA

-20

4

Daniels, Owen HOU

-19

5

Miller, Zach JAC

-16

6

Celek, Brent PHI

-13

7

Shiancoe, Visanthe MIN

-13

8

Miller, Heath PIT

-11

9

Shockey, Jeremy NO

-9

10

Scheffler, Tony DET

-9

11

Davis, Fred WAS

-9

12

Olsen, Greg CHI

-8

13

Scaife, Bo TEN

-2

14

Cook, Jared TEN

-2

15

Miller, Zach OAK

-1

Injuries hurt the Top 2 tight ends this season as Dallas Clack went first in drafts and Jermichael Finley went third.

Divisional Games:

Saturday, Jan. 15, 4:30 p.m. ET –
Baltimore
Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Ravens Pass Offense: 5th, Run Offense: 24th
Ravens Pass Defense: 5th, Run Defense: 18th

Steelers Pass Offense: 14th, Pass Offense: 11th
Steelers Pass Defense: 12th, Pass Defense: 1th

First Meeting: Ravens 17, Steelers 14 (Week 4)
Second Meeting: Steelers 13, Ravens 10 (Week 13)

It is always great to see rivals face off in the playoffs. For the AFC, both games this weekend feature bitter division rivals facing off to advance. In the first meeting a Ravens’ late touchdown won the game. In the rematch, a fumble cost the Ravens a win and it was the Steelers that scored late for the win. I expect the same type of game this weekend as this game can go either way and it will come down to which defense makes the bigger play and who blinks first.

Prediction:
Steelers 20, Ravens 17

Saturday, Jan. 15, 8 p.m. ET –
Green Bay
Packers at Atlanta Falcons

Packers Pass Offense: 5th, Run Offense: 24th
Packers Pass Defense: 5th, Run Defense: 18th

Falcons Pass Offense: 15th, Pass Offense: 12th
Falcons Pass Defense: 22nd, Pass Defense: 10th

First Meeting: Falcons 20, Packers 17 (Week 12)

The first meeting, it took a field goal by the Falcons to secure the victory. The Packers’ lack of a run game hurt them in that game but they seem to have found success on the ground at the right time. The Packers are one of the most dangerous teams in the NFC playoffs and I can see them winning this game by a wide margin.

Prediction:
Packers 30, Falcons 14

Sunday, Jan. 16, 4:30 p.m. ET –
New York
Jets at New England Patriots

Jets Pass Offense: 22nd, Run Offense: 4th
Jets Pass Defense: 6th, Run Defense: 3rd

Patriots Pass Offense: 11th, Pass Offense: 9th
Patriots Pass Defense: 30th, Pass Defense: 11th

First Meeting: Jets 28, Patriots 14 (Week 2)
First Meeting: Patriots 45, Jets 3 (Week 13)

These teams don’t like each other, and nothing is more fun to watch then two rivals looking to embarrass the other team. In Week 2, the Jets’ second half lifted them past the Patriots, but in Week 13 the Patriots dominated the game and showed the Jets that they can’t have the division yet. In this rubber match, the Patriots are playing at their best right now and will be at home. The Jets will have to rely on Mark Sanchez to win it for them, and it just won’t be enough.

Prediction:
Patriots 27, Jets 20

Sunday, Jan. 16, 1 p.m. ET –
Seattle
Seahawks at Chicago Bears

Seahawks Pass Offense: 19th, Run Offense: 31st
Seahawks Pass Defense: 27th, Run Defense: 21st

Bears Pass Offense: 28th, Pass Offense: 22nd
Bears Pass Defense: 20th, Pass Defense: 2nd

First Meeting: Seahawks 23, Bears 20 (Week 6)

To be the champ, you must beat the champ, and last week the Seahawks knocked off the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints. The Seahawks will face the Bears, who they beat in Chicago earlier this season. The Seahawks are riding high right now but the Bears defense will prove that Matt Hasselbeck can’t produce consistently and will win this contest.

Prediction:
Bears 24, Seahawks 14

Division Round: Let’s see who makes it to the Conference Championships.
 
Good Luck to your team. Follow @BrewCrewCorner
 
Cheers!

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