It’s August! And more importantly, it’s draft season! Fantasy football is a great way to enjoy the NFL and there is nothing I love more than drafting my teams. In this article we’ll look at the potential for each draft spot to get you into the playoffs and win you a championship.
I’m seeing more Kentucky Derby leagues this year. For those who are not familiar, the Kentucky derby style draft is when you give each owner the opportunity to select which draft slot they want to start from. What I’ve observed from these types of leagues is that owners want the first three slots in a draft and then once those slots are filled they will look to get the 11th or 12th spot in drafts. I’ve looked at statistics over the last seven years to know that those slots are at a disadvantage in leagues and many have the perception that they can draft a better team because they will get three of the top 36 players. We’ll look at these numbers in a minute and show you that the success rate is very low.
Another observation I had was the increasing amount of leagues people are drafting in. It starts out with your money league, and then you get invited to play in a league at work. Before you know it you’re drafting a league with your buddies, a league with your family and then several leagues online. I’ve even seen a few husband-and-wife leagues last season but often the wives lose interest late in the season and the husbands end up managing two teams.
Now September rolls around and you are trying to manage 15 to 20 teams playing in several different formats. I’m not against playing in different formats, I just think owners get spread thin trying to manage too many teams and that is where you can end up losing your fantasy leagues because you will miss out on some of the waiver pickups or you tend to keep the same players you have for several leagues which doesn’t always work because of the scoring rules. My advice is to try and keep the number of leagues you have to 5-10. Know just how many you can actually manage. Last season I trimmed my leagues from 18 to six and it helped me focus on roster management tremendously.
This is year seven of my draft analysis. One thing hasn’t changed in all the years that I have been writing this article, having a top-3 draft selection is always key in getting to the playoffs. You can never win or lose your league based on your draft slot, but the chances of finishing with the best record and securing a top seed are certainly tied into your draft position. We will look at draft slot results for 16,225 live drafts on myfantasyleague.com provided by Kevin Austin.
This year there is a good crop of running backs to draft early. From Adrian Peterson, who returns to the top spot down to LeSean McCoy around the eighth or ninth spot. Let’s look at the results from live drafts in 2012 for 16,225 leagues on myfantasyleagues.com.
Picking first meant finishing first 10.81 percent of the time. The highest success rate (ninth in 2011), a +2.49 percent change.
Picking second meant finishing first 9.89 percent of the time. The second-highest success rate (fourth in 2011), a +1.14 percent change.
Picking third meant finishing first 8.99 percent of the time. The fifth-highest success rate (fifth in 2011), a +0.26 change.
Picking fourth meant finishing first 9.57 percent of the time. The third-highest success rate (seventh in 2011), a +1.1 change.
Picking fifth meant finishing first 8.5 percent of the time. The sixth-highest success rate (third in 2011), a -0.27 change.
Picking sixth meant finishing first 9 percent of the time. The fourth-highest success rate (first in 2011), a -0.1 change.
Picking seventh meant finishing first 8.61 percent of the time. The seventh-highest success rate (sixth in 2011), a +0.16 change.
Picking eighth meant finishing first 8.14 percent of the time. The eight-highest success rate (second in 2011), a -0.83 change.
Picking ninth meant finishing first 6.61 percent of the time. The 10th-highest success rate (10th in 2011), a -0.2 change.
Picking 10th meant finishing first 7.15 percent of the time. The ninth-highest success rate (eighth in 2011), a -1.29 change.
Picking 11th meant finishing first 4.45 percent of the time. The 12th-highest success rate (11th in 2011), a -1.07 change.
Picking 12th meant finishing first 5.33 percent of the time. The 11th-highest success rate (12th in 2011), a -0.18 change.