For many fantasy football owners, the first few months of the year are a time of rest, a chance to recharge the proverbial batteries before April’s NFL Draft signifies that another fantasy draft season is just around the corner.
However, for truly savvy (or insane…it’s a thin line) IDP owners, there is no offseason. There’s always something going on, whether it’s tracking free agency, scouting incoming prospects, or poring over early information for the upcoming campaign.
Well here at Fantasy Sharks, we have you covered, because we never rest either. Whether it’s my ongoing IDP Tutorial Series or all the quality articles being cranked out by my esteemed colleague Walton Spurlin, there’s been a steady stream of IDP information this offseason.
Well now we’re taking that to the next level, because the 2013 IDP projections are now live.
Not only are we rolling this year’s IDP projections out much earlier than in 2012, but this season Fantasy Sharks will also feature weekly IDP projections throughout the season. We’re still ironing out the kinks with those, and more information will be passed along as it becomes available.
A couple of items in regards to the projections.
First, while a lot of effort has already been put into these projections, they remain very much a work in progress. To this point two passes have been made through them, an initial set and then adjustments and additions after the first wave of free agency passed.
However, I’m sure that there have been errors and omissions, whether in my calculations or as data was transferred into the interface that’s been set up so that the projections can be adjusted as we move into the summer.
Between now and the draft later in April I’ll be taking a team-by-team third pass through these projections, adding players that slipped through the cracks and tweaking stats that seem out of whack. Then, once the draft is complete, I’ll be taking yet another run through the projections, adding rookies and adjusting veterans to reflect the impact of this year’s crop of newcomers to the NFL.
Even then, the projections will remain a living organism of sorts, constantly evolving as situations change, whether due to injuries, training camp battles, or as we get a better look at some of the new defensive schemes being employed by teams across the NFL in 2013. Basically, these projections will be worked on right up until the season starts, so be sure to check back often.
Second, you may notice that the projections for many players lean towards the conservative side. There are two reasons for this.
First, if there’s one bone I have to pick with some of the projections out there (both for IDP and offensive players) it’s that the folks who do them (and anyone who puts in as much work as it takes to do these should be commended…or committed. One of the two) sometimes get carried away, and the stats end up inflated as a result. I’m trying to avoid that.
Also, since I knew that my first pass through these wasn’t going to be the last, I intentionally went a little on the “lowball” side with many players, especially those whose situations could be impacted significantly by free agency and/or the draft. I decided it was best to start low and adjust up as opposed to the other way around. I’m building the house from the ground up, as it were, partially so I can hopefully avoid over-inflating the numbers.
So there you have it. By no means are these projections “perfect”, nor will they ever be, but it’s my hope that by the first part of May, just as people in many dynasty IDP leagues are getting ready to hold their rookie drafts, they will be a fairly accurate set of projections that will give you a leg up on the competition.
If you come across a player that’s missing, or see a projection that you feel looks like I’ve been doing too many Jell-O shots (is there such a thing as too many Jell-O shots?) then feel free to drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org. I will freely take all the help I can get.
One final note. Here at Fantasy Sharks our IDP projections afford you the option of entering your league’s scoring system to generate a customized set. Please take a few moments to avail yourself of that opportunity. It’s time well spent, as it will give you a set of IDP projections that most accurately reflects your fantasy football league and how its’ scoring impacts IDPs.
Looking for more IDP information? Be sure to check out all the other great IDP articles by the rest of the Fantasy Sharks’ crew, the IDP Forum, IDP Manor, and for the latest injury news follow @IDPManor on Twitter.