There was a recent discussion in the forum about applying prop bet lines to fantasy projections and expectations. Unfortunately, there isn’t a 1:1 relationship between the two. Oddsmakers have one goal when establishing a spread or betting line: to create an equal number of wagers on either side. Location of a team or popularity of a player involved are factored into the lines. The Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers are a few of the teams on a short list of “public teams.” The public teams can receive a lot more wagers that can shift a line and create betting opportunities. As Tony Holm mentioned in the thread above, most people bet with their hearts instead of their heads. Betting lines may not help in fantasy projections, but fantasy projections can help in placing bets!
Last year, I published season-long and weekly prop bets that I thought would be winners based on my team analysis and player fantasy projections. I wagered 45,000 Sand$ over the entire 2012 season that resulted in a profit of
18,716 Sand$. Without further ado, I present my top 2013 prop bets:
Season Prop Bets
Andre Johnson Total Receiving Yards UNDER 1,380.5 (-115)
When healthy, Johnson proved that he is one of the NFL’s elite receivers. He put up an astounding 1,598 receiving yards last year in what I feel far exceeded expectations. I get it. I know he did it in 2008 and 2009 as well. The bottom line is that he is now 32 years old on a run-first team. Add in the fact that the Houston Texans have one of the more difficult passing strength of schedules this year. I think Johnson will be a fine fantasy option this year, but 1,380 receiving yards? I just don’t see it happening again at this stage of his career.
I thought Ryan hit his ceiling in 2011. On a per attempt basis, he did. Will he repeat his 68 percent completion percentage or 615 passing attempts? My money is on no, but we are talking about touchdowns here. Ryan threw for a career-high 32 touchdown passes last year. I look at this more like a bet for Brees to throw 38-plus touchdowns with the bonus protection of Ryan not repeating career-highs in all passing categories.
The Indianapolis Colts offense is going to look a lot different this year. Luck will be more efficient this year, but he will throw the ball a lot less as well. He will also be facing the fourth-most difficult passing strength of schedule for quarterbacks. He may throw for more than 22 touchdowns this year, but I don’t see how it will be even close to what Rodgers puts up.
– Cleveland Browns to win OVER 6.5 games (-125)
I’m buying everything Cleveland this year. They even should have won eight (fine … seven) games
last year. The Browns are full of play makers all over the field that will thrive in a Rob Chudzinski/Norv Turner offense.