Thursday - Mar 4, 2021

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A Few Don’ts


if you want to but

not because it will provide anything useful.

  Mocks are great for determining what random internet folks will do when no money is on the line.

  They tell you nothing about who your league mates will draft.

  Many people claim to learn from mock drafts but I question the value of such wisdom.

  Beyond the first couple of draft picks (if that), every draft is a crap shoot.

  Even if  the mock draft is with the very same people who are in your league, there is little insight to be gained because league owners worth their salt won’t draft the same way twice.

  The only thing to learn in a mock draft is how strangers with nothing at stake will draft.

   There is a reason they’re called mocks.


Buy a magazine

for your main source of fantasy information.

  Most magazines are published well in advance of training camps and therefore, contain outdated material for your draft.

  The few times I have bought a publication, I was on vacation and wanted something to read.

  I have used them in the past for a bye week list but even that can be obtained from the internet for free.

  Save the dough because there are better sources of fantasy knowledge.



Value Based Draft


 Let’s face it,

everyone wants to pick the best player available.

   Where this theory unravels is when subjective values are assigned to players based on inaccurate projections.

  The main reason projections are wrong is that a majority of people weight the previous year’s statistics too heavily.

  There are plenty of pre-season draft lists that look almost identical to the final rankings last season.

  It may not be commonly known but roughly half of the top 10 running backs fall out of the top 10 the next season.


 Skip the extra work and tier players instead.



Draft anyone coming off a season ending injury


even if that season was over a year ago.

  This especially applies to running backs with leg injuries.


 I know, medical technology has come a long way the last decade or so and guys play much sooner returning from injury than they ever did.

  That doesn’t mean it won’t take them at least a season to get back in condition to the point where they can really trust their body and let their instincts take over.

  Do yourself a favor and let some other owner wring their hands every week worrying whether the player’s knee will hold up or just how much playing time he’ll receive.


Choose the loser

 This one should be obvious but avoid the Debbie Downer’s. If the only thing you read about a player is negative, pick someone else. Slow to learn the playbook, nagged by injuries, poor work ethic and trouble with the law are just a few of the reasons to raise the red flag.

  Sure, some of these guys will straighten out and have fantastic years but they’re in the minority.

  Usually it’s a sign of things to come.

  Let the drama play out on another owner’s team.

  Let them worry if a player will get suspended, miss games or exit the coach’s doghouse.

  Besides, it’s always more fun to root for the good guys.




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