I find it kind of funny that me being a fantasy sports writer is actually writing this, but…you really need to stop listening to us. What? Stop listening to the so-called experts? That’s why we come to you, an expert opinion, why shouldn’t we listen to you? or the guys on Y!? what about ESPN? Answer: it’s just an opinion, it’s our opinion, and as much as we’d like to believe it will come true more often than not it probably does not. Sure, we’re a good resource for a n00b to help them limit their mistakes, but the champions are born through those who see a breakout (or a bust) that the majority does not see. Us experts can field a good team (in most cases), but the great owners are the ones that seek out the under valued’s later in the draft and avoid the bad risks early in the draft – how do they do that? Some by luck, others by their own research and opinion formulation. A case of groupthink often occurs when draft season nears, I hear a lot of “I should take this guy here because so and so said so,” or “he’s the best available according to this random cheatsheet,” or “this guy was right about this guy last year so he has to be right about this guy this year,” and so on. Don’t be that guy, trust your gut, go with who you think is the best pick at that spot, and why; don’t pick someone because miscellaneous rotoworld expert says so.
These experts missed horribly on the breakouts in 07 of Randy Moss (and the
passing game), Tony Romo, Braylon Edwards, Adrian Peterson, Jason Witten, among others. They incorrectly valued guys like Cedric Benson, Lee Evans, Jamal Lewis, Jon Kitna, Shaun Alexander, Santana Moss, Reggie Brown, and a whole lot more. The savvy owner saw these things developing and there were signs that these booms and busts were going to happen, the majority did not though…if you listened to the majority you missed out. If you saw these things and went with your gut your team in all likelihood made the playoffs, and that’s all you can assure yourself of in this game. I was on the good end of some of these booms/busts and I was on the wrong end as well, you will be too but it will be based off your opinion and not someone else’s. I can’t tell you how many times during a season I see person A attack expert B based on advice given to him; make up your own mind and don’t seek outside opinions if you think you can do better. By attacking (while you may have been right) you also look like a fool.
What can you do then? Trust your gut – with everything, who should I start, trade/waivers, keepers, the draft. Gather all the information you can – stats, scheme changes, coaching changes, facts, myths, average draft positions, trends, anything else you can think of – the more the better. Take this information together and formulate your own opinion, and your own projections. Create the team that you believe has the best chance to compete for a title, not one that miscellaneous message board poster thinks would be best; we’re probably wrong. Draft the team to how you believe is best fit, don’t draft a guy because some guy somewhere believes that Ryan Torain will be the Denver running game – draft him because you believe he is the man for the Denver running game.
I think Robert Meachem is going to breakout this year and will reach for him everywhere I can, most disagree and I’m sure most will laugh at me for thinking he is going to put up WR2 numbers this year…but it’s outside of the box thinking like this that leads to championships.
You won’t be right about half of them, hell you’ll probably be wrong about most but all you need to do is be right about one of them and you may do enough to vault your team to a title.
This is your team, your toy, not ours, create it yourself…just don’t be that guy trolling boards bragging about how great you are because for every genius move you make there will be two boneheaded ones.