Let’s begin by reviewing how accurate Vinnie has been against the spread, through September:
picks have gone 5-0 (100%)
picks have gone 3-5-1 (37.5%)
Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans (-6.5): Tennessee has been able to severely limit what opposing wide receivers can do against its defense; unfortunately Kyle Orton getting the ball into his wide receivers’ hands is just about all the Broncos offense has going for it. Then there’s the Chris Johnson factor, which in and of itself is enough to overwhelm some teams. Consider also that Denver has gone only 1-8 against the spread in its last nine games versus AFC South teams – that includes an 0-2 start this year in that category.
Gimme the Titans minus the points.
Chicago Bears @ New York Giants (-3.5): The Giants being favored to win by more than a field goal despite a disappointing 1-2 record comes down to two assumptions. That Chicago isn’t nearly as good as its 3-0 record would indicate, perhaps because Jay Cutler hasn’t been particularly turnover prone (unlike last season) or perhaps because the Bears cannot run the ball. And that New York’s defense and offensive line will come around any day now, so why not rally behind Eli Manning in front of the home crowd and on prime time television? Vinnie isn’t buying.
Gimme the Bears plus the points.
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5): San Francisco’s conservative offense and surprisingly porous defense have already gotten offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye fired and now seem to have head coach Mike Singletary firmly on the hot seat. Vinnie confidently has Atlanta near the top of his power rankings, and he has a hard time seeing the beleaguered 49ers traveling across country in time to make this a competitive matchup. Admittedly, this is due in part to the daydream of Matt Ryan grinning from ear to ear after throwing two or three touchdowns, that Vinnie keeps having.
Gimme the Falcons minus the points.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5): Typically the Jaguars reserve their best football for when Indianapolis comes to town. This year, though, homefield advantage hasn’t seemed to mean much, and Maurice Jones-Drew has been awfully quiet. Jacksonville’s secondary has been horrid at times, the sort of problem you want to iron out before Peyton Manning takes the field against your team.
Gimme the Colts minus the points.