Thursday - Jan 17, 2019

Home / Commentary / Against the Odds – Week 17

Against the Odds – Week 17

This week’s lines are from USAToday.com (as of Thursday night).


ATS – Against the Spread; SU – Straight Up; O/U – Over/Under





Locks

Chicago at Detroit (+3)

In order to clinch the last playoff spot in the NFC, the Bears need to win in Detroit this weekend and have the Packers win in Minnesota. It’s hard to believe it’s come to this after starting the season 7-1. Coach Lovie Smith’s job is on the line and will probably need to win at least one playoff game in order to keep his job. The Lions will look to play spoiler against a rival who they would like to knock out of the playoffs.   

The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games with the Lions.


Gimme the Lions plus the points.

Green Bay at Minnesota (+3)

This game has major playoff implications as the Packers will clinch a first round bye with a win and the Vikings can get into the playoffs with a win.
Minnesota will focus on running the ball with Adrian Peterson against the Packers run defense, which is giving up 112 yards per game, 14th in the league. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers will air it out against the Vikings defense, which is giving up almost 239 yards per game, 20th in the league.
The two met back in Week 13 with the Packers winning 23-14 in Green Bay.
I think the Packers win and cover this game and give the Bears a fighting chance to make the playoffs.   

Gimme the Packers minus the points.




Games

Kansas City at Denver (-16)

The Broncos will clinch a first round bye with a win this week.
The Chiefs will clinch the #1 overall pick in the 2013 NFL draft with a loss.
It’s a big number to cover but the Broncos have been blowing out teams lately, they are 3-0 ATS in their last three games, winning by an average margin of 17 points, including a win against the Baltimore Ravens.

Gimme the Broncos minus the points.

Carolina at New Orleans (O/U 54)

In their last meeting back in September, 62 points were scored, going over the total of 53.5. Both teams should have no problem putting up points and I’m expecting another high scoring affair this weekend.

Gimme the Over.

Houston at Indianapolis (+7)

The Colts cannot improve on their playoff standing as they are locked into the 5th spot while the Texans can clinch home field advantage with a win.
I think the Colts are getting too many points at home in a game where they will treat it as a playoff game to get ready for the ‘real’ playoffs.

The Colts are 6-1 ATS at home this season.

Gimme the Colts and the points.

St. Louis at Seattle (-10.5)

The Seahawks are a perfect 7-0 ATS at home this season and have been dismantling teams lately. In their last three games, they are averaging 50 points a game while holding teams to 10 points per game.

Gimme the Seahawks minus the points.



Games

Buffalo -3 over N.Y. Jets

Dallas +3 over Washington

Philadelphia/N.Y. Giants Over 46


Games

Baltimore +1 over Cincinnati

Tennessee -4 over Jacksonville

San Francisco -16.5 over Arizona

New England -10 over Miami

The following games are off the board:

Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Oakland at San Diego


SEASON RECAP (W-L-T)




: 25-20-1



      : 31-19-3


            : 27-23-1

                  : 31-23-2

Total Record: 114-85-7

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