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Auction Drafting 2010: Overvalued Players

If there’s one thing I can’t stand, it’s overpaying for something, and players in an auction draft are no exception. Doing this for top players in particular can be brutal if they bust (or are at least a big disappointment), since you count on them to be the heart and soul of your team – or more to the point, have already made sacrifices elsewhere during your draft to afford them.  

I, therefore present the following short list of players who I think are best bets to cost too much, and therefore you should avoid them. Buyer beware. (Note: since leagues can vary a lot in terms of number of teams, roster sizes, etc., I’m not giving specific numbers.)

Jay Cutler: It’s not unheard of for Cutler to be drafted as a low-end QB1, ahead of guys like Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan and Kevin Kolb. Yet, as many of us “knew” or suspected, Mike Martz’s overrated system lacks the horses to pull it off. We are already seeing Cutler run for his life quite a bit in preseason. This guy is simply not worth what he’s going for. Too many people still appear to be envisioning his gaudy

Denver
numbers when he was tossing it to Brandon Marshall and company. Unless your league is really lenient on interceptions, avoid him.

Steven Jackson:

Jackson
only missed one game last year, but he’s still one of the biggest injury risks around, not to mention still on one of the most pathetic teams around. People are finally paying a bit less for him, but he’s still way too pricey for a guy who cannot be counted on. Even though he enjoyed relatively good health and put up big yards last year, he still only scored four times.

Jackson
is simply a poor risk-reward ratio who has burned many an owner over the years.  Don’t be one of them.


Reggie Wayne:



Wayne
has also put up top numbers over the years, but anyone who saw the Colts a lot in the second half of last year should have noticed a disturbing trend – how often Peyton Manning looked elsewhere to pass the ball. Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon didn’t emerge by accident. Further, Manning has perhaps the deepest corp of receivers he’s ever had, with not only those two emerging, but Anthony Gonzalez coming back and, of course, tight end Dallas Clark.

Wayne
is similar to Marques Colston (see below) in that regard; he’s, but one, of many options now. So, while it’s possible, don’t hold your breath for another 100-catch, 1,200-yard type of season from

Wayne
. I question whether he’ll even be “top tier” this year, and so, not worth what he’s going for. 

Marques Colston: Did someone mention Colston? As I predicted, the Saints’ penchant for spreading it around to all their weapons shoved this guy down into a WR2 status last year, and little has changed. Drew Brees will once again make use of them all; there simply isn’t a go-to guy here. Don’t pay that low-end WR1 price that many are willing to pay for Colston, unless you’re in a large league and/or really de-emphasize your wide receivers.

Visanthe Shiancoe: Even with Sidney Rice out, do you really think this guy will sniff 11 touchdowns again? You shouldn’t, and his modest yardage and reception totals are unlikely to change much, meaning a dip into mediocrity. Yet, some people are still chasing last year, paying too much for a guy who won’t be a top tight end in the end.  Besides, tight ends are extremely deep this year, so there are numerous better options. Save your money and get someone like Zach Miller or Brent Celek, who often go for less and will likely outperform him.



New York

Jets defense/special teams: No Darrelle Revis. Need I say more? The Jets are still a very good defense, but he is a difference-maker. Without him, they are merely one of a number of defenses you can get for the minimum bid which are comparable. Besides, defenses/special teams are too hard to predict and so not worth spending much on.  

Pick a kicker, any kicker: Expect me to say this every year – if you pay more than minimum bid for any kicker, you overpaid. They are even more unpredictable than defenses/special teams and generally score too similarly to do so. Let others waste extra money on one. You can get someone who may just as easily be the top guy with your spare chump change.

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