Saturday - Apr 20, 2019

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BetBot Week 7

Initially built by NASA to set lines
for the

Las Vegas

casinos in the late 50

s (who do you think funded the Apollo
missions? The government? It was the mob), The

Sin

City

Betbot 6000 calculated lines for over
30 years. The Betbot was given various upgrades through the years, not always
with the best equipment, but he was very good at setting lines, and living the
good life.

 

The Betbot was de-commissioned in 1990
after

San Francisco

destroyed

Denver

in the Super Bowl. The 45 point spread
simply fried a number of the Betbot

s wires and he retired. The Betbot was
discovered by Fantasysharks.com and retooled to give fantasy advice. He lives
now to help your team with deeper sleepers to start each week.

 

The Betbot

s column is transcribed each week by

 Tom Walls, because,

Typing is a dame

s BZZZT job.

 

Greetings to my first deeper
sleeper report of the year. I have learned to let the dust settle a bit before
looking to the true diamonds in the rough each year. Anyone can look at the
first 2 or 3 weeks’ stats and tell you jump on

Andre Davis or

Derrick Ward,
but I like to get some more data points before giving my advice.

 

So, what have I been up to?
Funny you should ask- trying my best to save

Britney Spears. Good bleeping Lord, she is a complete train wreck.
Now, many of you will smirk, but it wasn’t so long ago, she was the hottest
talent on Earth. I no longer have a romantic relationship with her, but feel it
is my duty to help her through this time. Not only because we had a child
together – but because I felt an obligation to her. I managed her career for
awhile, and wanted a nice controlled career for her, but it wasn’t in the
cards.

 

I have to tell you, I have
seen my share of starlets through hard times, not always with happy endings.
Well…our Sessions of Sweet always featured Happy Endings, but…you know…this is
a family column and … Look, do I really need to hit you over the bleeping head
with every possible double entendre?

 

One specific career (and
woman) I took a tight grip on was

Samantha
Fox
. Some of you may remember this former Page Three bombshell who had a
nice singing career in the mid to late 80s. I was tooling around…BZZZT… London
after my friend

Andrew Lloyd Weber
asked me to retool a musical he was working on based on

The Creature from the Black Lagoon…I didn’t understand how an
amphibious creature would be able to sing all that well, and crushed Andy’s (I
call him Andy) feelings. Long story short, I told him to ditch the frog and threw
the book

The Phantom of the Opera on
his lap…the rest they say is history.

 

Back to Samantha Fox, I was
idling around

Piccadilly
Circus
after that fateful
meeting when I saw that day’s Page Three girl – of course, Ms. Fox. I took an
immediate romantic interest in her, and wooed her. She was young, but had a good
head on her shoulders, and a pretty good voice. I got her auditions, and soon
enough she had a nice batch of hits including

Touch Me (I Want Your Body) and

Naughty Girls (Need Love Too). By the way, the parenthetical titles
were my idea (could you tell?). Our personal relationship was a short
tumultuous affair, punctuated by intense Sessions of Sweet and intense jealous
rages. I want to get something straight here, I never cheated on Sammy (I call her
Sammy)…much anyway.

 

Why do I tell you this?
Simple…This career was the sort of career I had in mind for Britney Spears. I
knew she couldn’t handle the fame, very few people can. She could have had a
bright, brief career…BZT… and gone on to live in relative obscurity, with a
nice stipend from her years in the public eye. I blame

Justin Timberlake, he threw a

 
bunch of hoo-koo cha-cha nonsense about global superstardom in her ear
when they were still Mouseketeers. One day, Timberlake…One day!!!

 

I want to start this season
(hey, the best things in life …you gotta bleeping wait for) by kicking off with
my first Betbot’s Wide Receiver Confidence Index…

 

People say to
me:

 

BetBot, how
do you do it? How do you pick such great fantasy deeper sleepers?

BetBot, how
can you consistently find those hidden gems?

BetBot, can
you help me find deeper sleepers?

BetBot, can
you blow on these dice so I can make the point?

 

Well, I can’t
blow on dice, because I don’t breathe. And I can’t fully explain my internally
programmed heuristics and algorithms for predicting a player’s success, nor
would I want to…but I can give you some …BZT… help.

 

The main factors
I look at when trying to find those hidden gems at receiving positions is the
confidence a QB has in his receiver. Now, I’m not in the locker room, or in the
players’ meetings, so I don’t know what’s being said – but we all have access
to statistics.  I will share with you each week my tailor made Confidence
Index. This index, I believe, gives…BZZT… a simple, easy to understand view of
factors a team or QB makes when determining who should get the ball.

 

Straight up,
here is the calculation for the unweighted Confidence Index:

 

(Rc/Tg) + 1.3*(Pos/Tg)

Where

Rc = Year to
Date Receptions by the Receiver

Tg = Year to
Date Targets at the Receiver

Pos = Year to
Date Positive plays by the receiver – positive plays are first downs and
touchdowns

 

Basically, this
boils down the confidence a QB has that once he throws the ball, the receiver
will:

 

A)

   

Catch it

B)

   

Make something positive happen after the catch (first down or
touchdown)

 

I give 30% more
weight to a receiver catching the ball for a first down or TD than I do for a
simple reception, and I give the same weight to a touchdown. This is because I
view touchdowns by receivers as plays where some fluky things happen (more so
than a RB, say).  I don’t want to overweight TDs, but it is important to
capture.  Also, you guys already bleeping…BZT… know about receivers with a
lot of TDs.  We’re talking

DEEPER sleepers here, capiche?

 

Why is this an
important metric for finding fantasy players who can surprise?  Because
NFL coaches are looking at this kind of data, too – maybe not in statistical
form like I’ve done here, but they’re noticing which receivers on their team
are making the most of their chances.  You can be sure that a player who
stands out as a first down machine will get more passes thrown their way in the
coming weeks – and as every smart fantasy player knows, opportunity is 80% of
performance.  You have to get the ball to score points.

 

(By the way – the answer to
the apparently rhetorical double entendre question is – Yes, I do need to point
out every possible double entendre in these columns – I really bleeping do)

 

So here you go…The Sin City
Betbot Receiver Confidence Index for week 6…

 

That’s all for now, and remember –
Showgirls and gin , my friends, showgirls and …BZZT…gin.

NAME POS TARG REC RECYD POS PLAY Confidence Index CI * Recpts CI * Yards
Randy
Moss
WR 55 40 610 36 1.578 63.13 962.69
Antonio Gates TE 54 43 547 33 1.591 68.40 870.14
Chad Johnson WR 60 36 578 36 1.380 49.68 797.64
Braylon Edwards WR 52 29 552 31 1.333 38.65 735.65
Plaxico Burress WR 51 30 507 29 1.327 39.82 673.02
T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR 72 47 507 34 1.267 59.53 642.20
Jason Witten TE 49 32 454 28 1.396 44.67 633.75
Larry Fitzgerald WR 67 41 548 27 1.136 46.57 622.43
Kellen Winslow Jr TE 50 29 506 24 1.204 34.92 609.22
Tony Gonzalez TE 52 38 440 26 1.381 52.47 607.54
Steve Smith WR 54 35 496 23 1.202 42.06 596.12
Jerricho Cotchery WR 53 35 484 23 1.225 42.86 592.67
Dwayne Bowe WR 42 26 415 26 1.424 37.02 590.88
Owen Daniels TE 38 29 372 23 1.550 44.95 576.60
Bobby Engram WR 39 28 395 21 1.418 39.70 560.09
Derrick Mason WR 69 49 451 27 1.219 59.72 549.70
Kevin Curtis WR 42 24 444 21 1.221 29.31 542.31
Reggie Wayne WR 41 28 369 24 1.444 40.43 532.80
Roy Williams WR 44 29 426 20 1.250 36.25 532.50
Roddy White WR 38 25 420 17 1.239 30.99 520.58
Antwaan Randle El WR 28 20 368 15 1.411 28.21 519.14
Wes Welker WR 51 38 386 23 1.331 50.59 513.91
Patrick Crayton WR 39 24 381 22 1.349 32.37 513.86
Ike Hilliard WR 36 27 363 18 1.400 37.80 508.20
Joey Galloway WR 32 22 403 14 1.256 27.64 506.27
Torry Holt WR 51 32 384 27 1.316 42.10 505.22
Bernard Berrian WR 52 30 408 26 1.227 36.81 500.58
Terrell Owens WR 56 27 453 26 1.086 29.31 491.83
Santonio Holmes WR 21 14 285 17 1.719 24.07 489.93
Donald Driver WR 55 36 412 21 1.151 41.43 474.17
Ben Watson TE 20 18 222 17 2.005 36.09 445.11
Donte Stallworth WR 27 19 316 14 1.378 26.18 435.38
Brandon Marshall WR 46 27 362 21 1.180 31.87 427.32
Kevin Walter WR 38 27 338 16 1.258 33.96 425.17
Dallas Clark TE 40 26 300 22 1.365 35.49 409.50
Shaun McDonald WR 36 25 287 20 1.417 35.42 406.58
Deion Branch WR 36 22 343 15 1.153 25.36 395.40
Andre Johnson WR 20 14 262 12 1.480 20.72 387.76
Laveranues Coles WR 52 33 327 22 1.185 39.09 387.37
Ronald Curry WR 35 22 296 18 1.297 28.54 383.95
Anquan Boldin WR 32 22 286 16 1.338 29.43 382.53
Amani Toomer WR 40 26 306 18 1.235 32.11 377.91
Vincent Jackson WR 35 20 320 16 1.166 23.31 373.03
Dennis Northcutt WR 30 19 288 15 1.283 24.38 369.60
Heath Miller TE 23 17 241 14 1.530 26.02 368.83
Donald Lee TE 29 22 270 13 1.341 29.51 362.17
Chris Chambers WR 66 31 415 20 0.864 26.77 358.41
Andre Davis WR 24 16 296 10 1.208 19.33 357.67
Desmond Clark TE 30 22 279 11 1.210 26.62 337.59
Jeremy Shockey TE 41 23 293 17 1.100 25.30 322.30
James Jones WR 39 23 293 13 1.023 23.53 299.76
Marvin Harrison WR 27 17 231 13 1.256 21.34 290.03
Mike Furrey WR 32 21 260 11 1.103 23.17 286.81
Marques Colston WR 36 23 218 16 1.217 27.98 265.23
Brandon Stokley WR 19 12 178 12 1.453 17.43 258.57
Roscoe Parrish WR 23 20 178 10 1.435 28.70 255.39
Demetrius Williams WR 38 18 267 14 0.953 17.15 254.35
Roydell Williams WR 21 14 172 13 1.471 20.60 253.09
Chris Cooley TE 30 19 185 16 1.327 25.21 245.43
Javon Walker WR 30 19 230 10 1.067 20.27 245.33
Calvin Johnson WR 21 11 192 12 1.267 13.93 243.20
Alge Crumpler TE 28 19 203 11 1.189 22.60 241.43
Michael Jenkins WR 30 18 193 15 1.250 22.50 241.25
Todd Heap TE 29 19 201 12 1.193 22.67 239.81
Greg Jennings WR 28 14 228 11 1.011 14.15 230.44
Josh Reed WR 18 15 163 8 1.411 21.17 230.01
Nate Burleson WR 41 19 236 16 0.971 18.44 229.09
Marty Booker WR 41 20 246 13 0.900 18.00 221.40
Jeff King TE 29 18 189 12 1.159 20.86 218.98
Anthony Gonzalez WR 18 13 178 7 1.228 15.96 218.54
Bryant Johnson WR 30 17 199 12 1.087 18.47 216.25
David Patten WR 24 13 202 9 1.029 13.38 207.89
Brandon Jones WR 20 13 172 8 1.170 15.21 201.24
Joe Jurevicius WR 27 15 160 14 1.230 18.44 196.74
Darrell Jackson WR 34 16 210 12 0.929 14.87 195.18
Bobby Wade WR 32 18 210 9 0.928 16.71 194.91
Lance Moore WR 23 15 167 9 1.161 17.41 193.87
Chris Baker TE 17 12 124 11 1.547 18.56 191.84
Keary Colbert WR 31 16 205 10 0.935 14.97 191.77
Jason Avant WR 16 10 130 10 1.438 14.38 186.88
Greg Olsen TE 16 11 148 7 1.256 13.82 185.93
Isaac Bruce WR 28 15 203 8 0.907 13.61 184.15
Marcedes Lewis TE 21 14 161 7 1.100 15.40 177.10
Randy McMichael TE 27 14 175 10 1.000 14.00 175.00
Reggie Williams WR 14 11 102 10 1.714 18.86 174.86
Marcus Pollard TE 15 12 123 7 1.407 16.88 173.02
Justin Gage WR 15 10 133 7 1.273 12.73 169.35
Alex Smith TE 22 14 133 10 1.227 17.18 163.23
Eric Johnson TE 30 23 140 9 1.157 26.60 161.93
Sean McHugh TE 9 7 98 6 1.644 11.51 161.16
Jeff Webb WR 21 14 159 5 0.976 13.67 155.21
Santana Moss WR 31 12 199 9 0.765 9.17 152.14
Jerry Porter WR 25 10 172 9 0.868 8.68 149.30
Eric Moulds WR 24 15 122 11 1.221 18.31 148.94
Jerheme Urban WR 15 9 123 7 1.207 10.86 148.42
Arnaz Battle WR 29 15 159 9 0.921 13.81 146.39
Glenn Martinez WR 6 6 70 5 2.083 12.50 145.83
Drew Carter WR 20 11 119 10 1.200 13.20 142.80
Ruvell Martin WR 10 6 102 6 1.380 8.28 140.76
Samie Parker WR 18 11 126 7 1.117 12.28 140.70
Reggie Brown WR 30 14 170 8 0.813 11.39 138.27
Sidney Rice WR 21 11 119 9 1.081 11.89 128.63
Sam Hurd WR 13 6 120 6 1.062 6.37 127.38
Reggie Kelly TE 12 8 111 4 1.100 8.80 122.10
Ben Utecht TE 7 7 70 4 1.743 12.20 122.00
Brad Smith WR 17 10 114 6 1.047 10.47 119.36
Visanthe Shiancoe TE 14 9 107 5 1.107 9.96 118.46
Robert Royal TE 10 9 83 4 1.420 12.78 117.86
David Martin TE 17 12 89 8 1.318 15.81 117.27
Ernest Wilford WR 10 7 79 6 1.480 10.36 116.92
Troy Williamson WR 19 8 134 6 0.832 6.65 111.43
Devery Henderson WR 21 8 146 6 0.752 6.02 109.85
Muhsin Muhammad WR 35 12 146 11 0.751 9.02 109.71
Hines Ward WR 18 9 108 7 1.006 9.05 108.60
John Madsen TE 6 5 71 3 1.483 7.42 105.32
Quinn Sypniewski TE 19 14 90 6 1.147 16.06 103.26
Michael Clayton WR 10 5 89 5 1.150 5.75 102.35
Bo Scaife TE 20 10 100 8 1.020 10.20 102.00
Derek Hagan WR 9 6 72 5 1.389 8.33 100.00
Troy Walters WR 5 4 54 4 1.840 7.36 99.36
Marques Hagans WR 11 6 85 5 1.136 6.82 96.59
Mark Clayton WR 25 13 104 7 0.884 11.49 91.94
Tim Carter WR 12 5 86 6 1.067 5.33 91.73
Bryan Fletcher TE 5 4 58 3 1.580 6.32 91.64
Malcom Floyd WR 13 7 97 4 0.938 6.57 91.03
Glenn Holt WR 9 6 59 6 1.533 9.20 90.47
Daniel Graham TE 12 10 78 3 1.158 11.58 90.35
Ben Obomanu WR 17 6 110 6 0.812 4.87 89.29
Joe Horn WR 28 11 117 7 0.718 7.90 83.99
Justin Peelle TE 12 7 65 6 1.233 8.63 80.17
Zach Miller TE 16 10 71 6 1.113 11.13 78.99
David Anderson WR 8 5 61 4 1.275 6.38 77.78
Devin Hester WR 5 2 84 2 0.920 1.84 77.28
Bubba Franks TE 27 14 90 7 0.856 11.98 77.00
Cedrick Wilson WR 12 6 81 4 0.933 5.60 75.60
Michael Gaines TE 8 8 45 4 1.650 13.20 74.25
Kris Wilson TE 21 10 102 4 0.724 7.24 73.83
Vernon Davis TE 15 8 83 4 0.880 7.04 73.04
Nate Washington WR 17 8 104 3 0.700 5.60 72.80
Laurent Robinson WR 25 12 98 5 0.740 8.88 72.52
Craig Davis WR 18 9 84 5 0.861 7.75 72.33
Lee Evans WR 31 12 113 6 0.639 7.66 72.17
Ted Ginn WR 8 3 83 3 0.863 2.59 71.59
Peerless Price WR 13 7 68 5 1.038 7.27 70.62
Rashied Davis WR 18 11 78 4 0.900 9.90 70.20
Brent Celek TE 6 5 45 3 1.483 7.42 66.75
Jacoby Jones WR 8 5 59 3 1.113 5.56 65.64
Anthony Fasano TE 8 5 57 3 1.113 5.56 63.41
Drew Bennett WR 26 8 94 7 0.658 5.26 61.82
Dominique Byrd TE 5 4 44 2 1.320 5.28 58.08
Leonard Pope TE 11 6 60 3 0.900 5.40 54.00
Jabar Gaffney WR 12 7 47 5 1.125 7.88 52.88
Matt Jones WR 15 8 74 2 0.707 5.65 52.29
George Wrighster TE 6 5 33 3 1.483 7.42 48.95
Matt Schobel TE 8 5 44 3 1.113 5.56 48.95
Mike Williams WR 14 5 70 3 0.636 3.18 44.50
Anthony Mix WR 5 3 39 2 1.120 3.36 43.68
Skyler Green WR 5 4 40 1 1.060 4.24 42.40
Antonio Chatman WR 10 5 47 2 0.760 3.80 35.72
Sinorice Moss WR 12 6 46 2 0.717 4.30 32.97
Taylor Jacobs WR 9 3 40 3 0.767 2.30 30.67
Dan Coats TE 5 3 23 2 1.120 3.36 25.76
Steve Smith WR 7 4 26 2 0.943 3.77 24.51
Robert Ferguson WR 16 5 44 3 0.556 2.78 24.48
Kyle Brady TE 8 3 28 3 0.863 2.59 24.15
L.J. Smith TE 9 5 34 1 0.700 3.50 23.80
Dane Looker WR 5 3 19 2 1.120 3.36 21.28
Terrance Copper WR 6 3 29 1 0.717 2.15 20.78
Steve Heiden TE 13 5 41 1 0.485 2.42 19.87
Brandon Manumaleuna TE 5 3 22 1 0.860 2.58 18.92
Hank Baskett WR 5 3 22 1 0.860 2.58 18.92
Jeb Putzier TE 8 4 27 1 0.663 2.65 17.89
Justin McCareins WR 12 3 31 3 0.575 1.73 17.83
Dante Hall WR 11 4 27 2 0.600 2.40 16.20
Sean Morey WR 8 2 23 2 0.575 1.15 13.23
Delanie Walker TE 11 4 26 1 0.482 1.93 12.53
Chris Davis WR 6 3 18 0 0.500 1.50 9.00
Michael Matthews TE 8 3 16 0 0.375 1.13 6.00
James Thrash WR 6 2 11 0 0.333 0.67 3.67
Tab Perry WR 5 1 7 1 0.460 0.46 3.22
Brandon Lloyd WR 6 1 9 0 0.167 0.17 1.50
Jim Kleinsasser TE 5 1 4 0 0.200 0.20 0.80

 

About Fantasy Sharks

FantasySharks.com began in 2003, disseminating fantasy football content on the web for free. It is, or has been, home to some of the most talented and best known fantasy writers on the planet. Owned and operated by Tony Holm (5 time Fantasy Sports Writer Association Hall-of-Fame nominee,) Tony started writing fantasy content in 1993 for the only three fantasy football web sites in existence at the time.