Jameis Winston will throw for 350 passing yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions against San Francisco this week.
My thinking: I know, I know. Jameis Winston has been a hot mess this season. There’s no denying that. However, he’s had some flashes of superb play (see: Weeks 6 and 7) and has the pleasure of going up against a subpar San Francisco defense in Week 12. The San Francisco defense has given up the ninth-most fantasy points per game (19.4) and sixth-most passing touchdowns (21) to opposing quarterbacks this season. San Francisco also has just two interceptions on the season, which is the second-fewest interceptions by a defense in the NFL. Winston should be getting sick and tired of being benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick and does not want to play the musical chair game at quarterback anymore. Expect him to play his absolute best in a home matchup against a below-average defense to maintain his position as the starting quarterback for Tampa Bay for the duration of the season and for the foreseeable future.
My thinking: After clawing back with every ounce of energy they had in Week 11 against Jacksonville, the Pittsburgh offense (and defense) should come out flat on the road in a harsh environment against a desperate Denver team in Week 12. Ben Roethlisberger has historically played worse on the road than at home in his career, which has been the case so for up to this point in the 2018 season. He has averaged 21.6 fantasy points per game in five road games this season, compared to 26.5 fantasy points in five home games.
Case Keenum, on the other hand, has played better and has averaged more fantasy points at home this season (16.0) than on the road (12.2). Keenum hasn’t been all that impressive this season, but after a statement win last week against the Los Angeles Chargers, Denver has to keep winning if it wants to have any shot at sneaking into the playoffs as a Wild Card team this year. It’s a long shot, but don’t be surprised if Keenum totals more fantasy points than Roethlisberger this week.
Joe Mixon will have 150 total yards and two touchdowns against Cleveland this week.
My thinking: Joe Mixon has been up-and-down this season. He’s had some stellar performances and some underwhelming performances. The simple solution for the Cincinnati offense is to feed Mixon the ball early and often. When Mixon has had at least 20 carries (three games), he’s averaged 4.7 yards per carry on 60 rushing attempts and Cincinnati is 3-0 in those games. In games where Mixon has had fewer than 20 carries, Cincinnati is 2-5. Mixon will go up against a Cleveland defense in Week 12 that has surrendered the eighth-most rushing yards per game (110.5), second-most rushing touchdowns (12), and seventh-most points per reception (PPR) league fantasy points per game (29.0) to opposing running backs this season. At 5-5, this is the perfect opportunity for Mixon and Cincinnati to get back on track against a below-average defense. Expect Mixon to have his best performance of the season this week against Cleveland.