Finding the Value
The best type of player is one that puts up a lot of points on a consistent basis; to try and get a bead on this, I used a scatter plot to show each offensive position’s eligible players in terms of their Consistency Ranking and Average Points per Game (using a PPR format). After plotting each player, I divided the plot into quadrants using the median CR and PPG values (as opposed to using the mean, which is unduly influenced by outliers). Obviously, we’d want to use as many players from Quadrant 1 (“Quad1”) as possible.
QB (left-click twice to enlarge)
The quarterbacks continue to be paced by Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. While there’re plenty of guys clogging the middle, there’s two guys who’ve taken up residence in Quad IV you should give up on: Brock Osweiler and Joe Flacco. Those dudes are consistently bad.
Interestingly, the epitome of the average fantasy QB thus far has been Eli Manning: his data point sits almost exactly on the intersection of the two median lines.
RB (left-click twice to enlarge)
Let’s continue to be impressed by DeMarco Murray, the most consistently good runner thus far; the third-highest PPG comes with the group’s lowest CR score. The cluster of top backs is comprised of Murray, David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Le’Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliot. Who looks like the average performer in terms of consistency and scoring? It’d be the baby of Matt Asiata and Chris Ivory.
WR (left-click twice to enlarge)
The receivers are paced by Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and A.J. Green. Nothing new for that troika, but I’m liking the move by Julio Jones towards Quad I. Jones is far above the scoring median line– his PPG output ranks fourth in the league– but his consistency was to the right of that median. However, his data point has been creeping more and more to the left, and now sits just slightly to the median’s right. Cole Beasley is someone that would make a fine waiver pick up (if he’s somehow available) or potential trade target in exchange for an under-producing “name” receiver like Torrey Smith, Will Fuller or John Brown.
Let’s give up on the consistently bad receivers at this point, if they’re still on your redraft roster for some reason: Breshad Perriman, Jermaine Kearse, Ted Ginn Jr., Devin Funchess and Dorial Green-Beckham. Who’s Mr. Average Performer among the pass-catchers? Think Brandon Coleman or Eli Rogers.
TE (left-click twice to enlarge)
The TE group is still being paced by the duo of Greg Olsen and Jordan Reed. Against just about every expert’s preseason expectations, Jimmy Graham sits in Quad I, among the leaders in both scoring and consistency. Where’s Gronk? Rob Gronkowski finds himself in Quad II, but the #3 scoring TE is fighting to cross into Quad I; his 77.95 CR is just above the median TE CR value of 73.29– meaning Gronk needs to be 6% more consistent to be a Quad I player.