Tuesday - May 21, 2019

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Couch Tomatoes – Week 14

Last week I let Toby pick some players that he believed would excel in Week 13. My only caveat was that he could not pick all the obvious choices. Anybody could choose Antonio Brown and other players of that ilk. These had to be genuine players that were hot.
His Five Carrot picks of Blaine Gabbert (27 FP), David Johnson (20 FP) and Michael Crabtree (16 FP) were right on target. Overall, he did pretty well, hitting on about 80% of his choices to do well and about 50% on his picks to do poorly. Since Sunday night he has been yammering at us to send him to Las Vegas so he could get a job in a sportsbook.

He even has picked out a name to call himself. He came up to Bonnie the other day and asked “Hey, old lady—remember Jimmy the Greek back in the day?” Bonnie gave him that long look and answered that she indeed did. He went on to tell her he wants to be known as Toby the Stew. Bonnie laughed and told the little prankster that it could be arranged.

Toby’s QB Picks

QB Blake Bortles, JAC
Playing the Colts this week.
Last three weeks 16-27-36 for an average of 26 FPPG

QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF
Playing the Eagles this week.
Last three weeks 12-31-31 for an average of 25 FPPG

QB Jameis Winston, TB
Playing the Saints this week.
Last three weeks 32-18-22 for an average of 24 FPPG

QB Alex Smith, KC
Playing the Chargers this week.
Last three weeks 16-24-26 for an average of 22 FPPG

QB Blaine Gabbert, SF
Playing the Browns this week.
Last three weeks 19-20-27 for an average of 22 FPPG

Here are some normally decent QBs that have been slumping over the last three games—Ryan Tannehill (18 FPPG), Matt Ryan (18 FPPG), Philip Rivers (17 FPPG), Jay Cutler (13 FPPG) and Teddy Bridgewater (12 FPPG). Toby suggests putting them on the bench.

Toby’s RB Picks

RB Javoris Allen, BAL
Playing the Seahawks this week.
Last three weeks 17-18-35 for an average of 23 FPPG

RB Shaun Draughn, SF
Playing the Browns this week.
Last three weeks 16-14-20 for an average of 17 FPPG

RB Doug Martin, TB
Playing the Saints this week
Last three weeks 24-11-17 for an average of 17 FPPG

RB James White, NE
Playing the Texans this week.
Last three weeks 19-3-28 for an average of 17 FPPG

RB T. J. Yelden, JAC
Playing the Colts this week
Last three weeks 11-12-24 for an average of 16 FPPG

Here are some slumping RBs that are not too likely to help you this week—Latavius Murray (13 FPPG), Giovanni Bernard (12 FPPG), Melvin Gordon (9 FPPG), Danny Woodhead (6 FPPG) and LeGarrette Blount (5 FPPG).

Toby’s WR Picks

WR DeSean Jackson, WAS
Playing the Bears this week.
Last three weeks 20-15-20 for an average of 18 FPPG

WR Golden Tate, DET
Playing the Rams this week.
Last three weeks 15-18-15 for an average of 16 FPPG

WR Eric Decker, NYJ
Playing the Titans this week
Last three weeks 12-17-18 for an average of 16 FPPG

WR Kamar Aiken, BAL
Playing the Seahawks this week.
Last three weeks 16-20-11 for an average of 16 FPPG

WR Cecil Shorts, HOU
Playing Patriots this week.
Last three weeks 15-13-15 for an average of 14 FPPG

Toby noted that there are some big-time WRs playing so badly that they are more flex worthy than being WR1s. Don’t count on this group for more than they can likely contribute. Over the last three weeks they have had disappointing stats to say the least—T. Y. Hilton (13 FPPG), Demaryius Thomas (13 FPPG), Randall Cobb (12 FPPG), Donte Moncrief (11 FPPG) and Dez Bryant (10 FPPG).

I asked Toby to single out his best plays of the week again. After giving us three great picks last week he offers these selections for Week 14…

Toby’s Five Carrot Picks

QB Marcus Mariota, TEN
Playing the Jets this week.
Last three weeks 20-24-42 for an average of 29 FPPG

RB Thomas Rawls, SEA
Playing the Ravens this week.
Last three weeks 41-14-21 for an average of 25 FPPG

WR Doug Baldwin, SEA
Playing Ravens this week.
Last three weeks 12-39-26 for an average of 26 FPPG

This is not something that just Toby can do… You too can easily check players’ recent history to see who is hot and who is not. This goes for players on your roster as well as those you might be looking at on the waiver wire.

In compiling your lineup you have to look at the big picture. Some league management software gives you player projections. I wish there was a way of turning that off as it makes some people lazy. By relying on that you fail to analyze on your own. It takes gut feelings out of the equation. By doing that, it might as well be a rabbit making lineup choices.

You worked your butt off to qualify for the playoffs. Why stop now and just use a non-cerebral approach to deciding your fate? Do your own analysis and live or die by it.

Toby and I hope this gives you some things to mull over in making your lineup decisions this week. Maybe we can help shed some light on who to start and who to replace if you can.

Be sure to remember that the answers to our fantasy football questions can usually be found within the numbers of the game. And if all else fails ask me or Toby. You can reach us at mnease23@yahoo.com. All fantasy football questions are welcome.

About Mike Nease

Mike Nease is a member of the FSWA and has been playing the game since 1985, while also writing about it since 2001. Over the years he has sampled about all the playing scenarios that fantasy football offers, including re-drafter, keeper, dynasty, auction, IDP and salary cap leagues. He and his wife Bonnie reside in West Chicago, IL You can contact Mike at mnease23@yahoo.com anytime and during the football season follow him @mikeinsights.