Week 14 is the change in NFL season. We will start to see more NFL teams get eliminated from playoff contention and we could see more younger guys get playing time – like we see in Philadelphia. For DFS, this will give us some salary relief as the studs are now priced in the $9,000 or more range on DraftKings compare to the $7,000 range at the beginning of the season. COVID cases continue to pop-up each week changing the value plays that are available.
Last week just three quarterbacks were in double-digit ownership. Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins led the ownership with Rodgers the highest at 16%. All three had decent days but were behind in scoring as Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield and Ryan Tannehill all scored over 30 fantasy points. Carr led the position with 35.74 DraftKings points but Mayfield was the better value scoring 33.46 DraftKings points at $500 cheaper than Carr. Justin Herbert was the biggest bust scoring 6.36 DraftKings points in his worst game of the season.
Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles (DK: $5,100/$340 DPP — FD: $6,600/$440 DPP)
The Carson Wentz era is about over in Philadelphia as the team will spend the rest of the season seeing what Hurts has to offer. This isn’t the ideal first start for a rookie against the 10-2 Saints who are playing better on defense. The appeal to me is going to be the rushing ability for Hurts. Similar to Taysom Hill, in this game we can expect more design runs for him; perhaps limiting the amount of throws he has provided they don’t fall behind early. I would likely stack him with Dallas Goedert rather than one of the receivers. The Saints have locked down opposing quarterbacks over their last four games with 7.47 DraftKings points per game.
Drew Lock– Denver Broncos (DK: $5,100/$364 DPP — FD: $6,700/$479 DPP)
The Panthers are going to be popular this week with D.J. Moore out this week. The contrarian play would be to use Lock in a stack with the opposing receivers for the Panthers and pair Lock with Noah Fant or Jerry Jeudy. Lock has a 30-point ceiling but has averaged 11 fantasy points the last 3 weeks. Carolina has been quarterback friendly the last 4 weeks giving up 21.47 DraftKings points.
Dalvin Cook burned plenty of people in Week 12 but in Week 13 he remained one of the highest owned running back as the field expected a bounce-back game. He put up 26.9 DraftKings points, the second highest on the slate behind David Montgomery, who came in at about the same 28%. Montgomery was the top value play however, scoring 27.1 DraftKings points. The biggest bust was surprisingly Derrek Henry who was 20% owned in tournaments at $9,200 and scored just 6.9 DraftKings points.
Myles Gaskin– Miami Dolphins (DK: $5,600/$431 DPP — FD: $6,000/$545 DPP)
Gaskin in a return off of IR played 50 of the 70 snaps the team ran. He saw 21 carries and 2 targets while rushing for almost 100-yards. This week, Myles Gaskin will be the only viable running back for Miami with both Matt Breida and Salvon Ahmed out again. They face the Chiefs who are 7.5-point favorites, there is blowout risk but Gaskin could also see a good amount of touches in an up-paced game. The Chiefs allow 19.5 DraftKings points per game.
J.D. McKissic– Miami Dolphins (DK: $4,900/$408 DPP — FD: $5,300/$530 DPP)
Antonio Gibson is out this week and while McKissic won’t carry the ball a ton, as he hasn’t surpassed 8 rushing attempts this season, he has a great chance to catch a ton of balls. Over his last five games he has had double-digit targets in three of those games. He will face the 49ers who have allowed 24.47 DraftKings points to the running back position over their last four games.