Thursday - Mar 21, 2019

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Dear Bomb – Week 3

I’ve decided that I hate the first come, first serve waiver wire.

Why? Because with all the injuries we’re seeing in the early weeks you don’t have to be a good manager. You just have a laptop while watching the games. It’s incredibly frustrating to play with someone who’s only exhibited skill is being the fastest coach to pick up Deuce’s or the Edge’s backup…..yeah, that’s also the same one who asks if Randy Moss is still available when you’re entering the 11th round of the draft. Good draft strategy…..carefully choosing starters….looking for trades to help your team – why bother with all that when you can just be a wire vulture? Last place teams have a harder time adjusting to be competitive so they quit and owners whose players get hurt don’t have a chance to recover. What’s the fun in that?

In my opinion, my second league seems to have a much better system. We play four weeks and then have a supplemental draft, starting with last place making a move. Then we have a second supplemental after week 8 and a third after week 12. If a player goes down and the manager doesn’t have the backup he or she has to work a trade. For the never draft two kickers, two defenses or two TE pundits, the league starts with a slightly expanded roster to allow for drafting back-ups. I had to be much more aware of bye weeks, back-ups and match ups going in. There’s no race to see who can be the first online and I actually have time to think about who I want to add to my roster and who will be available when it’s my turn to pick. Needless to say, this is the league I’m finding myself more focused on (and the one I’m first place in!).

On to the mail – it was a slow week this week. I’m surprised you guys don’t have more to say!! If you do, send your questions or comments to thebomb@fantasysharks.com.

Dear Bomb,

I have played FF for several seasons so I am not a newbie but I can’t seem to find an answer to my question in any magazine or website columns so I will bring to the bomb….

After all my research and analysis of all the players it always seems that one or two or even three of my players don’t seem to be reaching their projections for the season. What is your philosophy on the player you spent a high draft choice on not producing. What guidelines do you go by to judge when to drop or trade the player? I play on a league with almost no bench space so I can’t just hide them away and wait for them to get their act together. I need production or I need to find someone who will. My season is only 14 weeks long so I can’t wait for the player to turn his season around but I fear that the second I drop or trade the player he will turn his season around. I can see the new owner now just laughing at me all the way to the playoffs while I am sitting there with a stack of research material telling me that it should not have happened that way!

Broken Crystal Ball

Dear Ball,

The reason you can’t find an answer is that there is none. The trouble with all these predictions, forecasts and claims to know is that they all have one similarity, they’re opinions. It’s difficult to develop a guideline on opinions. Sure, some analysts have more access to information and there are some high percentage choices (Priest Holmes scoring a touchdown or Plaxico Burress having 13 crappy weeks) but nothing’s etched in stone….just ask Steve Smith owners.

Sometimes you look at the projections and past performance, come up with your rankings and draft a team that looks good on paper but just doesn’t produce like you expect them to every week. That doesn’t mean they’re not valuable – top draft picks are tops because they outperform other players over the duration of the season. Look at how slow McNabb and Tomlinson started last season. Judging by their first few weeks both of them looked like bad picks…..but by the end of the season you knew why they were considered can’t miss.

If you get to week four and they are still not producing, then you have something to worry about. At that point your chances of making the playoffs on most leagues are getting slim (in general you have to have at least a .500-.600 record to make the cut).

As far as philosophy, I guess I’d have to say that I look at the draft as just a starting point and then try to forget about initial player rankings once something meaningful happens. I spend a little time looking at future match-ups and make decisions from week 1 on based on how I think the NFL season is shaping up. Then I target players who I think have positive upsides, like any RB who still has 2 games against Kansas City. It makes it much easier to trade away a first round pick (like Faulk in our league) for some guy from Tennessee who was supposed to be splitting carries with Eddie George. I know this may be easier said than done, but I try not to get stubborn about a player when someone wrote an article in June telling me what a great season he would have come September.

On a lighter note, realize that in the long run, you’ll probably be spending just as much time laughing as you will spend on the other side of the fence. Go with your gut and don’t be afraid to be involved in that blockbuster trade that brings you the super bowl win for your league. This is all supposed to be a game after all.

The Bomb

Good luck to you all in Week Three!

Thoughts, comments, and questions.  Mail to: bomb@fantasysharks.com

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FantasySharks.com began in 2003, disseminating fantasy football content on the web for free. It is, or has been, home to some of the most talented and best known fantasy writers on the planet. Owned and operated by Tony Holm (5 time Fantasy Sports Writer Association Hall-of-Fame nominee,) Tony started writing fantasy content in 1993 for the only three fantasy football web sites in existence at the time.