It was another week of chalk let down. If you owned most of the Top-10 highly owned players your scores were ugly. Of the Top-10 owned players, T.Y. Hilton was the star of the slate putting up 37.5 DK points. Todd Gurley was the highest owned player scoring 24.4 DK points. At just $4,900 on Draftkings he was also the best bargain. The Saints offense was led by Alvin Kamara rather than Drew Brees and Michael Thomas. Doug Baldwin came through a week late as most people were high on him going into Week 9 but his ownership dropped some this week.
We finally received a decision in the Ezekiel Elliott suspension where he was denied the latest block on the injunction. It means he will not be playing this week. While everyone is focusing on Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden, they are forgetting about the guy sitting at #2, Rod Smith. I discuss Smith more later in the article. In addition to losing Elliott, the Cowboys are monitoring the status of Dez Bryant who is dealing with a knee injury. Early reports is that he plans on playing, but how effective will he be is still unknown.
It was a low scoring week for quarterbacks. The highest owned quarterbacks were Drew Brees, Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson. Jared Goff was the best bargain on the board scoring 31.44 DK points, which was the highest on the slate among quarterbacks and he was only 4.7% owned across tournaments. The biggest bust was Jameis Winston who scored just 3.48 DK points before leaving with an injury. He was 7.6% owned in tournaments. The injury to Deshaun Watson changed the quarterback selection this week as he was going to be a chalk selection.
$DPP Value Plays
Tom Brady, New England Patriots (DK: $6,700/$279 DPP — FD: $8,200/$400 DPP)
Brady is a better discount at DK where he is the 6th highest priced quarterback as compared to FD where he is the 2nd highest. Brady does have a tough match-up against the Broncos who rank 17th in DK points allowed at 18.5 points per game. However, last week Carson Wentz threw four touchdowns on them and Brady has five 300+ yard games this season. The Broncos can be beat underneath and are weak against the tight end. The Patriots have a good tight end they can use and just added Martellus Bennett back to the team.
C.J. Beathard, San Francisco 49er (DK: $4,800/$300 DPP — FD: $6,300/$400 DPP)
Here is the test to see how bad the Giants really are this year and if they have given up on the season completely. They enter the game ranked 28th in passing yards allowed, 31st in passing touchdowns allowed and are 2nd in most DK points given up to the position. Beathard last week put up 18.36 DK points and is averaging 15.8 DK points over the last three. He could easily put up 20+ this week and cost you about $2,000 less than the high priced options.
The fumbles Mark Ingram had in Week 8 got him back into the dog house and I wish I picked up on it sooner because Alvin Kamara reaped the benefits. He only carried the ball two more times last week but his targets went back up to 7. Ezekiel Elliott’s last game before suspension was a dud as he was the most expensive running back but managed just 15.3 points. He needed almost double that to make value. He wasn’t as big of a bust however as Kareem Hunt who finished with 10 DK points. Hunt hasn’t had over 20 DK points since Week 3 and the points have been in a steady decline. The best value was Corey Clement who was 0.1% owned and scored 25.6 DK points. This week we have no Elliot, Hunt, Javorius Allen or Jay Ajayi.
$DPP Value Plays
Bilal Powell, New York Jets (DK: $4,000/$364 DPP — FD: $6,000/$600 DPP)
Matt Forte is expected to miss this weeks game with an injury. Powell will split the running back duties with Elijah McGuire but expect Powell to get the scoring opportunities. The Buccaneers are going to be without their quarterback due to injury and their top wide receiver because of suspension so the Jets will want to control as much time of possession as they can while limiting the Buccaneers offense. The Buccaneers are the 22nd most rushing yards with eight touchdowns on the ground and allow the 3rd most DK points at 27.6 per game.
Rod Smith, Dallas Cowboys (DK: $3,400/$3,400 DPP — FD: $4,500/$4,500 DPP)
The Dallas backfield will be a complete guess this week as Ezeikel Elliott is serving the first game of his suspension. Alfred Morris will get the start but I think this will be a situation where they will rotate in the three running backs and stick with the hot hand. I do not recommend using Smith in your main lineup but if you throw him into a low entry tournament lineup he could payoff well if given the opportunity. He has seen limited action this year but back in Week 6 he did have eight carries for 61 yards in a blowout game.