Monday - Apr 22, 2019

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DFS: $DPP Analysis – Week 11

We thought Week 9 was a big letdown for chalk plays until we got to Week 10. Led by Bilal Powell who was 50.7% and finished with 3.6 DK points the list continues with Jordan Howard scoring 5.4 DK points, Antonio Brown putting up 7.7 DK points and Leonard Fournette ending with 6.6 DK points. Most lineups looked like MLB DFS scores as the cash lines were one of the lowest this season. In the $20 NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire contest the winning lineup had a score of 215.

There were some bright spots in Week 10. If you started any running back from the Saints you did very well as Mark Ingram lead all running backs with 34.1 DK points and Alvin Kamara scored 27.8 DK points. Robert Woods lead wide receivers with 40.1 DK points and scored twice for the second week in a row. Sterling Shepard was a popular pick who put up 28.2 DK points. DeAndre Hopkins who has scored 20+ points in five of the last six weeks went extremely under owned at 3.4% in tournaments. His ownership dropped after the injury to Deshaun Watson but he still saw 14 targets.

Week 10 would have been a good week to play some of the contrarian options but it seemed that every other option you pivoted to also came up short. I’m looking forward to putting this slate behind me and moving on to Week 11.

Quarterbacks

The ownership across the board was pretty well spread out. Matthew Stafford was the highest owned at 17% and put up 22.6%. Ryan Fitzpatrick was the highest owned value quarterback but he managed just 11.38 DK points. The top scoring quarterback was Kirk Cousins with 31.58 DK points. The top value play was Case Keenum who scored 29.06 DK points. Dak Prescott and Drew Brees were top salaried duds this week.

$DPP Value Plays

Nathan Peterman, Buffalo Bills (DK: $4,000/$286 DPP — FD: $6,000/$429 DPP)
Buffalo has made a change at quarterback after benching Tyrod Taylor in last weeks game. Peterman will get a tough defense for his NFL debut and makes for a very risky play but as low tournament GPP play you could open up a ton of salary at other positions by using Peterman. A stack of Peterman with Kelvin Benjamin and Charles Clay will cost $13,300. The Chargers have allowed just 17.2 DK points per game but you need just 12 points from Peterman to hit 4X.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins (DK: $4,900/$377 DPP — FD: $6,400/$492 DPP)
Fitzpatrick was a popular punt play last week but I don’t think the match-up was good for him to produce. Look for him to do better this week against the Dolphins who were beat badly by the Panthers on Monday night. The Dolphins allow 20.7 DK points per game. The ownership should be down this week as well. He also gets Mike Evans back which will help boost his production.

Running Backs

With Ezekiel Elliott suspension back on, the Cowboys had to rely on Alfred Morris and Rod Smith to lead the backfield. Morris managed just 5.2 DK points with Smith scored 6.9 DK points. Darren McFadden was under 1% owned and only scored -0.2 points. If you spent up at running back this week, you probably had a tough time as the only running backs over $7K that produced were Mark Ingram with 34.1 DK points, Todd Gurley with 19.6 DK points and Le’Veon Bell with 16.2 DK points. Leonard Fournette with 6.6 DK points and LeSean McCoy with 9 DK points were the biggest busts over $7,000. Bilal Powell who was as high as 67% owned in the high dollar tournaments put up just 3.6 DK points.

$DPP Value Plays

Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers (DK: $4,000/$333 DPP — FD: $5,600/$509 DPP)
Williams in limited work last week put up 8.4 DK points and will be one of the higher owned running backs as he should ge the start this week with Aaron Jones out and Ty Montgomery doubtful. He will face the Ravens who allow 19.3 DK points per game to the position and 6 rushing touchdowns.

Rex Burkhead, New England Patriots (DK: $3,600/$720 DPP — FD: $5,700/$1,425 DPP)
We never know what coach Bill Belichick will do with his running game. Right now Dion Lewis is getting  more opportunities with Burkhead coming in behind him. Last game he carried the ball 10 times for 36 yards and caught 3 passes for 27 yards and a score. This week he faces the Raiders who allow 20.1 DK points to running backs and are terrible against the pass. This game should be high scoring so we want to get a share of this game.

About Walter Collazo

Writer for Fantasy Sharks since 2006. Member of FSTA. Winner of 2014 Fantasy Football Article of the Year Online, awarded by FTSA.