Monday - Aug 19, 2019

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DFS: $DPP Analysis – Week 13

After a wild Thanksgiving weekend of football we enter Week 13 with some tough roster building. Quarterback is going to be the toughest challenge as Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins were on the Thursday slate, Russell Wilson and Carson Wentz are playing the Sunday night game so they are only available on Fanduel and Ben Roethlisberger and Case Keenum are on the Monday night slate. That leaves Tom Brady as the highest priced quarterback at the top with the next tier of quarterbacks bunched together. Picking the right quarterback is going to be key this week.

Another decision we need to make is if we are going to play Kareem Hunt. He’s been awful the last few weeks and his price has dropped on both Fanduel and Draftkings to $6,900 which is $800 less on FD and $1,100 on DK. Draftkings is just daring you to play him. I won’t use him in my main lineup but he remains an interesting boom-or-bust play in multi-entry GPPs.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson was the highest owned quarterback last week at 20.55% in GPPs. Tom Brady was the next highest owned quarterback at 12.54%. The rest of the field were pretty spread out. I was surprised that Matt Ryan only scored 19.78 DK points even though Julio Jones went off. The top values on the board were Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert and DeShone Kizer who scored between 19 and 23 DK points but were priced below $5,000. The biggest bust was Marcus Mariota who finished with 9.76 DK points and was 9.1% owned across tournaments.

As mentioned, quarterback situation is going to be key to doing well in a cash games and GPP. I can see a lot of people just paying for Brady with Philip Rivers being the next best option. Every other match-up I’m not sold on but let’s dig deeper.

$DPP Value Plays

Brett Hundley (DK: $5,100/$268 DPP — FD: $6,400/$337 DPP)

Hundley gets a better match-up this week after facing a tough Steeler defense in Week 12 where he still threw for 3 scores. He’ll face a Buccaneers team that is allowing the most passing yards in the NFL at 284.6 per game while giving up 19.1 DK points per game. Pair him with Davante Adams who he has targeted 27 times over the last 3 weeks and is averaging 20.1 DK points per game over that span. Surprisingly he has a healthy Jordy Nelson who is seeing half the amount of targets as Adams.

DeShone Kizer (DK: $4,500/$346 DPP — FD: $6,300/$485 DPP)

Kizer threw for 268 yards in his last game which is the most he has had this season while adding 39 rushing yards. He has 20+ DK points in 2 of his last 3 games. Josh Gordon will play this week which should give Kizer a big boost as well as allow him to rush for more yards. Gordon projects to be the highest owned player this week but no one is discussing a stack with Kizer. The match-up isn’t great for Kizer as he faces a Chargers defense that has allowed just one quarterback to throw over 300-yards, Mr. Tom Brady, and hasn’t allowed more than one touchdown thrown in their last six games. I think with the addition of Gordon and the rushing yards, he will have he will be able to meet value easily. He just needs 13.5 DK points to reach value and the Chargers allow 14.3 per game.

Running Backs

Kareem Hunt solely shifted the status of every GPP last week. He was the 2nd highest owned running back at 24.6% behind Tevin Coleman who was 30.9%. Most GPPs have a cash percentage of 23-25% on average and using Hunt pretty much put you outside of that cash-line. Especially if other lineups paid down $100 for Alvin Kamara who led all running backs with 39.8 DK points. Joe Mixon was the value play as he scored 28.5 DK points at just $4,400. Rex Burkhead vultured the touchdowns from Dion Lewis who was 13% owned compared to just 5.3% for Burkhead.

$DPP Value Plays

Jamaal Williams (DK: $4,700/$313 DPP — FD: $5,700/$407 DPP)

Everyone has been watching the practice news all week to see how the Packers running back situation is going to shake out. The Packers put Ty Montgomery on injured reserve who will need wrist surgery. Aaron Jones is still listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision. Williams should get the bulk of the carries again regardless if Jones plays or not. He will face the Buccaneers who allow 25 DK points per game to running backs.

Kenyan Drake (DK: $4,900/$445 DPP — FD: $5,800/$580 DPP)

It looks like Damien Williams will miss this game with a shoulder injury and the only other healthy running back besides Drake will be De’Veon Smith who was called up from the practice squad. Drake does have a tough match-up against the Broncos who allow 22.5 DK points per game to running backs but the volume will be there to make Drake a good salary-saver flex option. The Broncos have suffered a few injuries along the defensive line and allow the most receiving touchdowns to running backs with 6 on the season.

About Walter Collazo

Writer for Fantasy Sharks since 2006. Member of FSTA. Winner of 2014 Fantasy Football Article of the Year Online, awarded by FTSA.