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DFS: $DPP Analysis – Week 16

Happy Holidays and welcome to Championship week. As we get ready for family and presents some are getting ready for the final game of the regular fantasy football season. A few still have to make it to Week 17 for the championship game. For the rest of us, it’s DFS for the rest of the season.

The NFL schedule this week is different than we saw all season. There is no Thursday night game but we have two games on Saturday then 12 games on Sunday without a prime-time game and then two games on Monday with an afternoon and late game. The DFS sites did not have a four game Saturday and Monday slate which would have been good to have.

Quarterbacks

The highest owned quarterback last week was Cam Newton who was also the highest scoring player at the position. The ownership at the top went to Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger and Blake Bortles. The best value was Eli Manning who scored 31.36 and was just $4,600. He was also one of the lowest owned players on the slate. Nick Foles and Tyrod Taylor each score 23+ DK points and provided good value. The biggest bust came from Russell Wilson who scored just 12.58 DK points in a game that everyone thought would be high scoring from the Seahawks side.

$DPP Value Plays

Drew Stanton (DK: $4,700/$265 DPP — FD: $6,000/$353 DPP)
Many will look to pay-down at quarterback this week and Stanton will be on a lot of rosters facing the New York Giants who are still last in the league in points allowed to the quarterback position with 20.5. Stanton has had two games this season with about 15 DK points but has a chance this week to exceed that number as the Giants have given up eight 20+ fantasy point games this season. Considering how bad the Cardinals have played on pass defense themselves, we could see some scoring on both sides. Stanton has relied on Jermaine Gresham the last two weeks but he is listed as questionable. Look for Ricky Seals-Jones to see more targets against the Giants who also give up the most DK points to tight ends.

Mitchell Trubisky (DK: $4,700/$363 DPP — FD: $6,800/$523 DPP)
Another good quarterback match-up is against the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are allowing 19.4 DK points per game and have allowed 7 games of 20+ fantasy points. Trubisky had his first 20+ fantasy point game two weeks ago so he can get another in this match-up. Kendall Wright has been his main target and would make for a very cheap stack.

Running Backs

There were six running backs with high ownership last week. While Le’Veon Bell and Kenyan Drake did well, the other running backs that were were owned in a ton of lineups did not. Alex Collins was one of the top value picks last week that came up short scoring only 10.2 DK points. Mike Davis, Samaje Perine and Chris Ivory all scored less than 9 DK points. The top dog of the week was Todd Gurley who put in a monster performance scoring 48 DK points. Jerick McKinnon was the top value play scoring 25.6 DK points.

$DPP Value Plays

Jonathan Stewart (DK: $3,700/$463 DPP — FD: $5,900/$738 DPP)
Stewart is not the running back he once was but I trust him more than Frank Gore. Stewart exploded for 31 DK points two weeks ago so the upside is there because the Panthers will look to keep Cam Newton healthy over the next two weeks. It helps to have a soft match-up like they have this week against the Buccaneers who allow 26.3 DK points per game to the position. They have given up 7 rushing touchdowns over their last four games.

Elijhaa Penny (DK: $3,000/$750 DPP — FD: $4,500/$4642,500 DPP)
This pick depends on the status of Kerwynn Williams. If he is out then fire up Penny at the minimum price. We already know the Giants are bad against the pass allowing the most DK points to quarterbacks and tight ends but they are not as good on run defense. The Giants allow the 9th most DK points to running backs with 25.4 DK points per game.

About Walter Collazo

Writer for Fantasy Sharks since 2006. Member of FSTA. Winner of 2014 Fantasy Football Article of the Year Online, awarded by FTSA.