Tuesday - Jan 22, 2019

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DFS: $DPP Analysis – Week 17

We have reached the final Week of the NFL season. It isn’t over yet for us DFS players as daily games go right up through the playoffs. This the largest Sunday we have had all season as every team is playing on one day. On that note, there are also a ton of players that are sitting out because of injury or rest. It could be an ugly slate and a very tough one to figure out where the landmines are and where the good plays will be. The salaries are a little loose this week so there is no need to feel like you have to pay all the way down because there aren’t any $9K studs to pay up for.

Quarterbacks

The two highest owned quarterbacks last week were Russell Wilson and Cam Newton who both came up short. Six of the seven highest owned quarterbacks disappointed except for Jared Goff who scored 29.44 DK points. Goff led all quarterback scores followed by Blake Bortles, Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo. Mitchell Trubisky was the biggest value scoring 18.12 DK points. The biggest bust came from Dak Prescott.

$DPP Value Plays

Tyrod Taylor (DK: $5,300/$312 DPP — FD: $7,300/$429 DPP)
With only a handful of games that have playoff implications, you want to find the players that are in a favorable match-up and don’t have to face 25 degree weather as we will see with several of the games this Sunday. Taylor is in a good spot playing in Miami where it will be sunny and 75 degrees. Taylor just faced the Dolphins in Week 15 and posted 23.16 DK points. The Miami defense is allowing 17.6 DK points per game but have given up 25 touchdowns on the year through the air. The Bills still have a chance to make it into the playoffs with a win and some help.

Jacoby Brissett (DK: $5,500/$367 DPP — FD: $6,600/$440 DPP)
Here is an indoor match-up that could become high scoring. Brissett faced the Texans back in Week 9 and threw for 308 yards and two touchdowns. The Texans are the 2nd worse passing defense behind the Giants and allow the 2nd most touchdowns passing with 29. They are 2nd in DK points allowed with 20 per game. They also have given up 300 or more yards passing 7 of 15 games this year.

Running Backs

The stud of the week was Todd Gurley who racked up 55.6 DK points on 22 carries for 118 rushing yards, 10 receptions for 158 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. This after he put up 48 DK points the week before. Yet he was only the 7th highest owned running back. Ezekiel Elliott returned from suspension where many thought he would have a big game in his return to the lineups. He managed 97 rushing yards but no touchdowns. Dion Lewis was the second highest owned running back and he posted 35.3 DK points. Kenyan Drake and Devonta Freeman were the biggest bust scoring 5.7 DK points and 6.6 DK points. Bilal Powell was the best value scoring 23.5 DK points at $4,000.

$DPP Value Plays

Derrick Henry (DK: $5,500/$306 DPP — FD: $5,800/$363 DPP)
With DeMarco Murray sitting out this week with a knee injury, many have been waiting all season for Henry to get his shot and this week he will have all majority of the carries. Henry will be very highly owned this week. He had good success against a tough Jaguars defense when he rushed for 92 yards and a touchdown back in Week 2. Tennessee has a chance to make it into the playoffs with a win.

Malcolm Brown (DK: $3,000/$260 DPP — FD: $4,500/$321 DPP)
Todd Gurley has been a fantasy stud this season but with the Rams locked into a playoff spot, he will sit out this week. Brown will get the chance to step in and produce against the 49ers who allow 26.4 DK points per game. In the first match-up Gurley handled all the carries and rushed for 113 yards and two scores. At minimum price you can play him and have room to fit anyone else you want too.

Wide Receivers

Larry Fitzgerald took advantage of the best match-up on the board by putting up 30.74 DK points on the Giants. The value plays of Chris Godwin and Keelan Cole were the highest owned receivers. Keenan Allen was the highest owned expensive player but finished with just 11.3 DK points. Brandin Cooks was the biggest bust scoring just 4.5 DK points. Julio Jones had a bounce back game after scoring just 8.4 DK points in Week 15.

$DPP Value Plays

A.J. Green (DK: $6,300/$420 DPP — FD: $7,700/$592 DPP)
Green is just too cheap not to play this week as this is the cheapest he has been all season, down from the $8,600 he was priced back in Week 8. This guy has a ceiling this year of 33 DK points. Know though that the team has been bad and the offense has been inconsistent which makes him risky. However, the Ravens are fighting for a playoff spot and the Bengals would love to prevent that from happening. Injuries have hurt the Ravens defense as they have allowed a 100-yard receiver in four of their last six games.

Jamison Crowder (DK: $5,800/$446 DPP — FD: $7,000/$636 DPP)
Remember how Larry Fitzgerald beat the Giants for 30 DK points? Well, the last time the Redskins faced the Giants, Crowder put up 30.1 DK points on them back in Week 12 and the defense is even thinner now with more injuries. Plug him in and move on to tight end.

Tight Ends

Last week I featured Antonio Gates as a top play and he came through with 20.1 DK points. At minimum salary he was a good risk to take. He was 15.3% owned in tournaments behind Greg Olsen who dropped a dud with 5.7 DK points. He wasn’t the only one to have a dud as Evan Engram posted just 2.2 DK points. Gates was also the top value on the board but Eric Ebron who scored 19.3 was a nice value play as well. Tight end is a mess this week as Gates’ price is up to $4,200 on DK and $5,700 on FD.

$DPP Value Plays

Demetrius Harris (DK: $2,500/$1,250 DPP — FD: $4,500/$2,250 DPP)
Travis Kelce is likely to sit this week and Tyreek Hill has already been ruled out. Someone has to catch the ball with rookie Patrick Mahomes expected to be under center. The Broncos have a good pass defense but are vulnerable to the tight end. They allow the 4th most points with 15 DK points per game.

Vance McDonald (DK: $2,700/$540 DPP — FD: $4,500/$1,125 DPP)
You could consider Vernon Davis against the Giants but he is priced up where you can use other tight ends at a similar price point. McDonald is risky but given the scenario that if the Patriots are beating the Jets, then the Steelers have nothing to play for and we could see more run from McDonald and other non-starters. The Browns allow the 3rd most DK points with 15.7 per game. We saw Jesse James score on them twice in the first meeting.

Defense

Defense is always a tricky selection from week-to-week. Last week the Bears and Panthers were the highest owned defenses and did well. The Jaguars defense was the most expensive and finished with just 1 DK point at almost 10% owned. The Cardinals defense finished with 24 DK points. Seattle’s defense was the best value scoring 20 DK points at $2,700.

$DPP Value Plays

Denver Broncos Defense (DK: $2,900/$1,450 DPP — FD: $4,500/$2,250 DPP)
As mentioned, the Chiefs plan to sit their starters which could mean more opportunity for sacks and turnovers. The receiving group available for the Chiefs is pretty thin and inexperienced. The Broncos defense put up 18 points just three weeks ago.

San Fransisco 49ers Defense (DK: $2,100/$700 DPP — FD: $4,000/$1,300DPP)
There is plenty of value this week and if you need to save, the 49ers will be playing against a Rams team that is resting everyone. This defense just put up 12 points on Jacksonville last week.

Make sure to adjust your lineups accordingly to news and updates from the site. You can find the $DDP Report on the menu bar in the Projections tab.

Good luck in Week 17!

About Walter Collazo

Writer for Fantasy Sharks since 2006. Member of FSTA. Winner of 2014 Fantasy Football Article of the Year Online, awarded by FTSA.