Wednesday - Apr 24, 2019

Home / DFS / DFS: $DPP Analysis – Week 3

DFS: $DPP Analysis – Week 3

The theme for the 2017 season is injuries and slow starting offenses. It is almost like we are in an extended preseason schedule. While injuries are more of a concern for season-long leagues, they still have an impact on daily fantasy because you usually get nothing from the player if you roster them that week and then you have to see how the teams adjust for the missing players.

The tight end position was hit the hardest this week with Greg Olson breaking his foot, Rob Gronkowski injuring his groin and Jimmy Graham suffering a high ankle sprain. Jordan Reed unsurprisingly sprained his Sternoclavicular joint (google it). Tyler Eifert also injured his back. What this means is that in Week 3 the tight end position is going to be super thin. Assuming these guys are not available in Week 3, that would make Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz the top-priced tight ends. We could see heavy ownership for these guys and also tight ends such as Jason Witten and Delanie Walker.

As mentioned, the scoring is down across the NFL to a tone of 40.33 points per game, which is the lowest it’s been in 20 years. Hopefully Week 3 will see an uptick in touchdowns.

Abbreviations
DK – Draft Kings
FD – FanDuel
DPP – Dollars Per Point

Link to Week 3 $DPP Report

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady was clearly the quarterback to play this week as he shredded the New Orleans defense. Trevor Siemian was the top value play at the position as he finished with 24.64 DK/23.64 FD points. There were only six quarterbacks with 20-plus fantasy points this week. Compare that to 2016 Week 2 where there were 19 quarterbacks who scored 20-plus fantasy points.

$DPP Value Plays

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $4,400/$244 DPP — FD: $7,000/$389 DPP)
Top of the $DPP is Bortles, who has been bad but needs to be considered this week solely based on price. He is priced on Draftkings near the bottom. In Week 1 he put up 15.7 DK points and in Week 2 he put up 13.4. Not huge numbers but at his price he needs just 13.2 DK points to hit value. Week 3 salaries are tighter on DraftKings so going with Bortles would afford you to play 2-3 players at $8,000 or more. Last season he averaged 19.25 points at home.

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (DK: $6,600/$367 DPP — FD: $8,100/$450 DPP)
This play depends on the health of Newton’s shoulder but if he can play he has a tasty matchup against New Orleans, who is giving up a ton of scoring to the quarterback position, as it did last season. New Orleans is giving up an astonishing 28.2 fantasy points per game this year.

Running Backs

Scoring is down around the league but running backs are tops in fantasy with Kareem HuntTodd Gurley and Ty Montgomery holding the Top 3 spots. Hunt is a beast out of the gates, turning into this year’s David Johnson. Depending when you were able to draft him you got a steal. Last week he was 15-19 percent owned in tournaments but his ownership and price will go up.

$DPP Value Plays

Mark Ingram, New Orleans (DK: $4,500/$281 DPP — FD: $5,800/$414 DPP)
Ingram last week received eight carries for 52 yards and four receptions for 24 yards. While it may not seem like much, he out-produced Alvin Kamara (1 carry, 3 yards) and Adrian Peterson (8 carries, 24 yards). The New Orleans backfield is a committee but you have to find value somewhere and the team is due to score on the ground soon. Kamara receiving only four touches and Peterson unhappy and perhaps over the hill, could lead to New Orleans going back to Ingram more this week. Carolina has allowed just 12.5 fantasy points through two weeks but is projected to score 14 fantasy points without even scoring a touchdown.

Carlos Hyde, San Francisco (DK: $5,200/$347 DPP — FD: $6,600/$471 DPP)
Hyde played well last week, rushing for 124 yards against Seattle, totaling 143 yards. He has no one to compete for with carries and pretty much the best offensive option San Francisco has. Last season Hyde scored two rushing touchdowns in the first game against the Los Angeles Rams and a receiving touchdown in the second game. He will have his first touchdown of the season against the Rams this week.

Wide Receivers

This was the week for the value play at wide receiver. There was not one receiver costing more than $7,800 who had more than 20 points. Julio Jones was the only high-priced receiver to have a decent game but he still fell nine points short of making value. Antonio Brown, Brandin Cooks and Amari Cooper didn’t produce like they should. Michael Crabtree led with 32 DK/ 29 FD points.

$DPP Value Plays

Rishard Matthews, Tennessee (DK: $4,200/$323 DPP — FD: $6,200/$564 DPP)
Matthews leads the team in receiving even though he had a quiet Week 2. He has seen an average of nine targets per game and 15.5 fantasy points over the last five going back to the last three games of 2016. With DeMarco Murray dealing with a hamstring injury, the team should rely more on Derrick Henry. Seattle should focus on Henry, which will allow Matthews to get some good looks. Seattle has allowed 30 fantasy points per game to receivers. Corey Davis has already been ruled out for Week 3.

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston (DK: $6,200/$443 DPP — FD: $7,500/$682 DPP)
Although Hopkins is averaging 64 receiving yards per game this season he is seeing a boat load of targets. In Week 1 he saw 16 targets and last week 13 targets. That is almost half of all the passes DeShone Kizer has attempted. As long as the rookie is throwing Hopkins’ way as much as possible, the potential for a big game is there. New England has given up the fourth-most receiving yards this season with two touchdowns yielded this season.

Tight Ends

It was a brutal day for injuries as I discussed earlier. Luckily Rob Gronkowski did his damage before getting hurt. We saw Eric EbronHunter Henry and Evan Engram finally emerge to post decent numbers. Austin Hooper was a big disappointment after a big Week 1.

$DPP Value Plays

David Njoku, Cleveland (DK: $2,800/$255 DPP — FD: $4,500/$500 DPP)
Njoku scored last week and the injury to Corey Coleman could provide him with additional opportunities in the red zone. He gets a great matchup against Indianapolis, who is giving up 64 yards per game to the position and allowing 325 passing yards per game. Purely a value play that would open up salary in other areas.

Antonio Gates, Los Angeles Chargers (DK: $3,000/$273 DPP — FD: $5,000/$556 DPP)
Gates refuses to fade off into the sunset. Since 2015 I have been expecting Gates to be done with football and yet here he is still catching touchdowns as he did last week which broke Tony Gonzalez’s record for touchdowns by a tight end. Kansas City last week gave up almost 100 yards to Zach Ertz and allow 300 yards per game passing this season.

Defense

It was a down week for defenses outside of Tampa Bay, who lead all defenses with 19 DK/ 19 FD points. Last week we saw four defenses score more than 20 points. Through the first two weeks Indianapolis and Cleveland have been teams to target with defense.

$DPP Value Plays

Carolina Panthers (DK: $2,600/$236 DPP — FD: $4,500/$409 DPP)
Carolina is playing low-scoring games and has averaged 12.5 fantasy points per game. In the last meeting against New Orleans, Carolina had three sacks, one forced fumble and an interception. Sure, Drew Brees could light them up but the potential to score points through sacks and turnovers are there. Carolina’s price drop of $1,000 could make it easier to fit players at other positions as Carolina only needs 7.8 fantasy points to hit value. Carolina will also come in at a very low ownership.

Baltimore Ravens (DK: $3,900/$325 DPP — FD: $4,500/$450 DPP)
Baltimore is averaging 21 DK points per game and get to take on Jacksonville this week. We discussed Blake Bortles as a punt option but that doesn’t mean Baltimore can’t rack up a few interceptions and some sacks. Baltimore last season sacked Bortles four times and picked him off three times.

Make sure to adjust your lineups accordingly to news and updates from the site. You can find the $DDP Report on the menu bar in the Projections tab.

Good luck in Week 3!

About Walter Collazo

Writer for Fantasy Sharks since 2006. Member of FSTA. Winner of 2014 Fantasy Football Article of the Year Online, awarded by FTSA.