Thursday - Mar 21, 2019

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DFS: $DPP Analysis – Week 4

Have you ever had a bad taste of chalk in your mouth? That is exactly how I felt this week as some of the chalk plays put up some awful numbers. Players that were 20% owned or more that disappointed were Jay Ajayi, Jack Doyle, Rashard Higgins, Davante Adams and the Philadelphia Eagles defense. Players that disappointed in the 10%-20% range were Terrelle Pryor, Keenan Allen, Eric Ebron and Michael Crabtree.

There were still a ton of big players if you were smart to use them. Stefon Diggs led all scoring with 40.3 DK points and came in at 1.3% owned helped those lineups shoot up the leaderboard. Tom Brady was the highest priced quarterback this week and he was also the highest scoring quarterback with 39.72 DK points.

The best values on the board this week were Jordan Howard with 35.4 DK points at $4,900 and was a ridiculously low 0.5% owned across contest. Chris Thompson was a close second scoring 33.8 points at $4,500 and was around 9% owned. Howard is a great example of players that go low owned because of unknown injury status heading into the game.

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees should always be considered in your lineups. Even if they are not considered the play of the week, always have one lineup in GPPs with these guys. My two biggest winning weeks in NFL DFS have been with Drew Brees lineups.

Matthew Stafford was a popular play last week and a reversed touchdown call changed a lot of lineups from cashing to not. He finished with 16.46 DK points. Big bounce back game for Russell Wilson as he scored 35.52 points. He had 9.32 and 15.32 in the first two weeks. His ownership was a ridiculous 0.96%. That’s a GPP winning combination. Always look for players that have struggled but have a high ceiling. There is always a bounce back game and the ownership is going to be lower.

$DPP Value Plays

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (DK: $7,200/$277 DPP — FD: $8,500/$370 DPP)
Brees as I mentioned, should always be considered for lineups. I know that many DFS players prefer to pay down at quarterback but for me personally, paying up for the more reliable players is sound strategy. Brees will face Miami this week on one of the highest game totals of 49.5. The Dolphins have allowed 290 yards passing per game with a passing touchdown in each to Jared Goff and Josh McCown, expect Brees to put up good numbers. Note that Brees is only available on the 16 game Thu-Mon slate and the early 14 game slate.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (DK: $6,000/$300 DPP — FD: $7,700/$370 DPP)
Stafford sits second on the $DPP value list as his salary decreases by $200 on both DK and FD. As I said earlier, a touchdown called back at the end of the game cost Stafford points so the potential is there to score 25+ fantasy points. This week he needs 18 points to hit value which he is capable of even in a tougher match-up. The Vikings defense has allowed 287 passing yards per game and 5 touchdowns on the season. The ownership will be lower this week so he makes for a great GPP play.

Running Backs

The top two salaried running backs Le’Veon Bell and Kareem Hunt performed well with Hunt going for 28.3 DK points with limited touches in the 4th quarter. As I said last week, Hunt is a beast and could finish the season as the #1 running back. Jay Ajayi was the third highest priced running back and finished with just 4.5 fantasy points. Le’Veon Bell and Ty Montgomery were the two highest owned running backs. I pivoted off Ajayi to Montgomery who was $800 cheaper but only put up 13 DK points.

$DPP Value Plays

Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints (DK: $4,600/$288 DPP — FD: $6,000/$429 DPP)
Ingram just missed reaching value with 10.6 DK points last week. He has yet to score a touchdown but leads the Saints in rushing attempts and has almost 5 targets a game receiving. It is just a matter of time before the Adrian Peterson experiment is shut down and Ingram goes off for a big game. The Dolphins have been tough against the run but have given up a rushing touchdown in two straight games.

Javorius Allen, Baltimore Ravens (DK: $4,700/$522 DPP — FD: $5,500/$786 DPP)
Allen is expected to be the starter this week against the Steelers who were run over by the Bears running backs that racked up 216 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. Last week the Ravens fell behind big, early in the game, against the Jaguars which negated the running game. Running backs at this price that will get the bulk of the carries are rare.

About Walter Collazo

Writer for Fantasy Sharks since 2006. Member of FSTA. Winner of 2014 Fantasy Football Article of the Year Online, awarded by FTSA.