Thursday - Jan 17, 2019

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DFS: $DPP Analysis – Week 5

This was the week injuries returned and high priced wide receivers put up a dud. Antonio Brown, Brandin Cooks and Julio Jones all put up 7.4 points or less. Odell Beckham and A.J. Green had around 16 points each but at their prices, they were 10 points below meeting value. On a week where running backs put up big points, receiver was a bad area to spend up on.

Running backs put up big points as Le’Veon Bell and Todd Gurley scored 37.5 DK points. Ezekiel Elliott and Lamar Miller scored 29 DK points. With Matt Forte out, Bilal Powell scored 32 DK points and was one of the biggest values along with Lamar Miller.

You don’t see game stacking as much as you would in NBA or MLB but if you stacked the Texans, you scored a ton of points. Deshaun Watson exploded for 34.72 DK points which lead to DeAndre Hopkins scoring 29.7 DK points and Will Fuller scoring 19.9 DK points. Even the Houston defense scored 19.9 DK points. In one lineup you could have had 132.42 DK points and still had $27,200 leftover for the rest of the roster. That is about $6,800 per position. If you played Le’Veon Bell and Bilal Powell you would still have $13,900 left in salary. Enough to have had Keenan Allen and Rob Gronkowski with $100 to spare. That lineup would have scored 235.82 and you would have won the DK NFL $4.25M GPP tournament by 5.08 points. We all can dream.

Quarterbacks

Value quarterbacks were the best plays this week. Cam Newton led all quarterbacks in scoring last week, finishing with 37.5 DK points/24.04 FD points. The majority of quarterbacks in the $5K range also did well including Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton and Eli Manning. Russell Wilson was the only quarterback priced over $7,000 to score over 25 DK points.

$DPP Value Plays

Brian Hoyer, San Fransisco 49ers (DK: $4,800/$282 DPP — FD: $6,500/$433 DPP)
Hoyer is the definition of a strictly GPP quarterback for 3 reasons. He’s very low priced as he is the 25th cheapest quarterback on the slate. He was very low owned last week with 0.36% average GPP ownership. He has the ability to put up good numbers in the right matchup as we saw two weeks ago when he threw for 322 yards and 2 touchdowns as well as rushed for a touchdown. That game wasn’t on the main slate so people will forget that performance. He faces the Colts this week who are 28th in the league in passing and have allowed 23.5 DK points per game to quarterbacks like Jared Goff, DeShone Kizer and Carson Palmer. 23.5 DK points at his salary is almost 5X value.

Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DK: $6,000/$316 DPP — FD: $7,700/$405 DPP)
Winston is a mid-salary quarterback I like this week. He may come in a little high in the ownership percentage category this week as the Patriots are now the Saints of last season — they have a good offense but the worst pass defense. Over the last 4 weeks they have given up 25 DK points or more in every game and average 30.35 DK points a game. That is an insane amount of points.

Running Backs

We may not have as many workhorse backs as we did 10 years ago but stud running backs are still valuable. Right now we have Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt and Ezekiel Elliott as the Top-4. We could also include Devonta Freeman and Leonard Fournette as a 5a and 5b. You will want to include some combination of these guys or pair them with a value running back every week. To make a comparison, these 6 running backs average 20 fantasy points or more per game this season. The only wide receiver this season over 20 fantasy points is Stefon Diggs at 20.8 per game. So when constructing lineups you have to decide if it is worth paying $8,500 for Antonio Brown or $8,800 for Ezekiel Elliott.

$DPP Value Plays

Eddie Lacy, Seattle Seahawks (DK: $3,400/$262 DPP — FD: $4,600/$383 DPP)
Chris Carson‘s injury opens the door for Eddie Lacy or Thomas Rawls ($3,700 DK/$4,800 FD) to get significant carries this week against one of the worst run defenses in the league. The Rams are 30th in the league allowing 151.7 rushing yards per game with 7 touchdowns given up. They average 24 DK points per game. This is going to be a wait and see and I would plug in whichever running back gets the start. Use the flex spot so you can make the switch as they play the later game on Sunday.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers (DK: $5,100/$2550 DPP — FD: $5,900/$2,950 DPP)
Want a 1% owned guy that people will overlook? Jones is that guy this week. With Ty Montgomery out last week, Jones received 13 carries and produce 49 yards and one touchdown. He makes a very risky play, as this was the first game he touched the ball, but he could be inline to get a lot more work. Here is what I know, at his salary, people will look to spend down to a Latavius Murray, Ameer Abdullah or one of the Seattle backs or they will spend up to a Joe Mixon, Doug Martin or Christian McCaffrey. With Jamaal Williams also likely to miss a game, Jones has no competition unlike all these other running backs and the Cowboys have given up 29.2 DK points per game to running backs including a 33.3 DK point effort to C.J. Anderson and a 37.5 DK point performance from Todd Gurley.

About Walter Collazo

Writer for Fantasy Sharks since 2006. Member of FSTA. Winner of 2014 Fantasy Football Article of the Year Online, awarded by FTSA.