Trends for the NFL should be a little more clear heading into Week 6. One trend for sure is have a lineup with Deshaun Watson in it. His ownership has risen to about 11% in tournaments but he’s still averaging 31.5 DK points over his last three games while his price hasn’t caught up to his production. He will probably be the highest owned quarterback this week against the Browns but I wouldn’t fade him in multi-entry GPPs. A.J. Green continues to put up big numbers despite having low ownership. Many faded the Bengals vs Bills game due to weather but Green showed up ready to play. He was 4% owned across GPPS. Dez Bryant and Jordy Nelson were very highly owned at 20% or more in GPPS, while Bryant failed to reach value with 16.2 DK points, Nelson scored only 10.4 DK points due to an injury. Todd Gurley was the highest owned bust scoring just 6 DK points. While the Jaguars defense has become one of the better options in fantasy, expect a bounce back game for Gurley against their 31st ranked run defense.
Last week I wrote about Aaron Jones going to be 1% owned but will payoff very well. He ended up being 3% owned in GPPs and put up 23.4% DK points. The Seahawks run game did not fair as well. Eddie Lacy received the most carries at 9 but scored just 3.8 DK points. While the majority of DFS was talking up DeVante Parker, I wrote up Jarvis Landry. Parker was injured during the game leaving with only 1.6 DK points at 13% ownership while Landry finished with similar ownership but scored 15.4 DK points. While he just missed value by 2 points he probably didn’t hurt you as much as those that chose Parker. The quarterbacks Brian Hoyer and Jameis Winston both hit for 21+ DK points.
We have four teams on a bye with productive quarterbacks unavailable to us. Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton and Tyrod Taylor will be off. Add in that Cam Newton and Carson Wentz are playing on Thursday night and it makes the quarterback options very limited. Expect high ownership for Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson and Matthew Stafford. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers ownership will be slightly lower due to Brady’s price and Rodgers’ matchup against the Vikings.
$DPP Value Plays
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals (DK: $6,100/$277 DPP — FD: $7,100/$374 DPP)
Palmer and Jameis Winston faceoff this week and there should be a lot of scoring in this one. Palmer and Winston are just a $100 difference on DraftKings but Winston is $700 more on FanDuel. Still, I’ll take Palmer at home against the Buccaneers 31st ranked defense. Tampa Bay has allowed 21.5 DK/FD points per game to the position with 7 touchdowns over 4 games.
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (DK: $5,900/$454 DPP — FD: $7,500/$577 DPP)
Carr is one of my favorite low owned sleeper picks this week. Carr is expected to play and will be at home against the Chargers. The Chargers are allowing 16.6 DK/FD points. Carr needs just 17.7 DK points to meet value. In the two wins to start the season Carr averaged 19.7 DK points.
This week LeSean McCoy and Ezekiel Elliott will be the running backs unavailable due to a bye. I’m not concerned about the others. Jerick McKinnon will be a highly owned player this week against the Packers after his 26.6 DK point performance. Stefon Diggs injury would lead to more opportunity for McKinnon. Le’Veon Bell and Kareem Hunt faceoff this week at Kansas City. I’ll take Hunt at home as he is $1,400 less then Bell on DraftKings. On FanDuel he is $300 more. Big discrepancy between the two sites.
$DPP Value Plays
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints (DK: $4,400/$262 DPP — FD: $5,900/$421 DPP)
During the Saints bye week they traded Adrian Peterson who was a non-factor for them all season. While Alvin Kamara has caught more passes than Ingram, Ingram has double the rushing attempts. I keep rolling the dice for a big Ingram game. This week he faces the Lions who allow 21.4 DK/20.9 FD points to the position. Ingram will make for a very low contrarian option with everyone focusing on Jerick McKinnon.
Elijah McGuire, New York Jets (DK: $4,600/$418 DPP — FD: $5,700/$570 DPP)
Last week the Jets running backs under performed in a matchup with the Browns. This week they face the Patriots whose defense is allowing the most fantasy points to running backs with 30.3 DK/27.7 FD points per game. Bilal Powell is priced up around $6,000 DK/$6,200 FD and may not go, so I prefer McGuire in this one.