Tuesday - Jan 22, 2019

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DFS: $DPP Analysis – Week 7

In Week 6 the chalk came through for most of the guys that were 20% or more owned players. Mark Ingram was the highest owned player coming in at 32% and scoring 34 DK points. The next on the list was Jerick McKinnon at 30.7% scoring 25.9 DK points. Chances are, if you didn’t roster these guys you wouldn’t have cashed. With Stefon Diggs out of the lineup, Adam Thielen was the highest owned wide receiver at 25% in tournaments scoring 18.7 DK points.. Deshaun Watson was the highest quarterback owned at 18.4% and put up 24.3 fantasy points. He was the 3rd highest scoring quarterback behind Kirk Cousins and Josh McCown.

The biggest bust went to DeAndre Hopkins who was 22% owned in tournaments scoring just 9.9 DK points and Amari Cooper who was 16% owned in tournaments scoring 7.8 DK points. The Ravens defense were the only Top 5 owned defense to score double digit points as they finished with 20 DK points. The Saints who came in at 4% owned scored the highest amount with 32 DK points. That is the most scored by a defense this season. The Saints have double digit points in their last three games and should be considered this week against the Packers.

Quarterbacks

Though Aaron Rodgers wasn’t a high owned quarterback this week he was injured early and scored just 0.72 DK points killing 4.9% of lineups. Kevin Hogan was the cheapest played quarterback and was 12% owned across tournaments. He finished with 10.2 DK points which was still below meeting value. Overall it was a down week for quarterbacks as we only saw two quarterbacks over 25 fantasy points. One note, Matt Ryan has stunk this year scoring under 20 fantasy points in his last 4 games. Until his price drops I would avoid using him outside of low entry tournaments. Even against the worst passing defense this week, the New England Patriots, I would fade him on your main lineups.

Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills (DK: $5,100/$283 DPP — FD: $7,000/$383 DPP)

Taylor hasn’t been great this season scoring just 19 DK points in Week 1 and hasn’t performed much better since. This week he gets one of the top matchups against the Buccaneers who allow 21.6 fantasy points to the position this season. I expect Taylor to be a little chalky but not enough to keep me from rostering him.

Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (DK: $6,900/$431 DPP — FD: $8,200/$506 DPP)

Here is a matchup that I think will get overlooked and will have low ownership. Mariota has 4 touchdown upside and faces the Browns who rank 3rd behind the Buccaneers in DK points allowed. DeMarco Murray is dealing with a hamstring injury and his status is questionable. While I think most people will load up on Derrick Henry, I think this will be a game Mariota will throw more in and could come away big.

Running Backs

Running backs are getting it done this year and I have been investing more into running backs then wide receiver since Week 1. Melvin Gordon led the scoring this week with 36 DK points followed by Mark Ingram with 34 DK points and Le’Veon Bell with 31.1 DK Points. If you had the stones to play Adrian Peterson, it payed off well as he put up 28.4 DK points and was 2% owned across the board. Leonard Fournette was hot out of the gates rushing for 80+ yard and a score in the first half. He was up to 24.8 DK points before a foot injury cut his day short.

$DPP Value Plays

Orleans Darkwa, New York Giants (DK: $3,700/$285 DPP — FD: $5,200/$433 DPP)

There are not a lot of low priced running backs that will get as many touches as Darkwa will. After scoring 14.2 Dk points against the Chargers, Darkwa became the first running back to rush for over 100-yards on the Broncos this season with 17 DK points. The Broncos haven’t had a cupcake schedule either against running backs. They have faced Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott, LeSean McCoy and Marshawn Lynch which were all held to 54 yards or less. He has a tough matchup this week against the Seahawks who allow the 5th least amount of points to the position with 19.9 but at his price he needs just 11.1 DK points to hit value.

Adrian Peterson, Arizona Cardinals (DK: $5,800/$383 DPP — FD: $6,300/$450 DPP)

I did not expect Peterson to run the way he did last week. I stopped drafting him in leagues a few years back and even this season I didn’t buy into him doing well with the Saints. With the Cardinals however, you have to take notice if they are going to give him 25+ touches. His price on DK has jumped $2,400 and on FD has increased $1,300. This week he faces the worst run defense in the league. The Rams are allowing the most DK points at 32.3 per game with 7 rushing touchdowns allowed.

About Walter Collazo

Writer for Fantasy Sharks since 2006. Member of FSTA. Winner of 2014 Fantasy Football Article of the Year Online, awarded by FTSA.