Thursday - Feb 21, 2019

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DFS: $DPP Analysis – Week 9

There have been a lot of changes this week for several teams before the Week 9 games which will impact lineups. Kelvin Benjamin going to the Bills will help Tyrod Taylor and hurt the Panthers offense. Jay Ajayi goes to the Eagles where they were already 5th in the league in team rushing. Ajayi will likely split carries and may see fewer touches until the team returns from a Week 10 bye and with the match-up verse the Broncos, he makes for a good fade. Jimmy Garoppolo going to the 49ers might not have an impact at all as they could decide to sit him the rest of the season.

Quarterbacks

It was a bad week for quarterbacks. Especially for the Top-6 salaried quarterbacks priced on DK. Tom Brady was the only one in the group to have at least 20 DK points. Every other quarterback in that group scored under 20 DK points with Dak Prescott putting up an awful 7.32 point performance. Andy Dalton and Russell Wilson were the highest owned quarterbacks this week with Dalton getting by on 18.72 DK points and Wilson leading all quarterbacks with 39.08 DK points. He was also the second highest scoring player on the main slate. Most people who used Wilson paired him with Doug Baldwin who only put up 11.4 DK points but those that used Paul Richardson racked up 31.5 DK points. Deshaun Watson was the best under owned play as he scored 38.78 DK points and was 1.44% owned. Surprising since he has scored 24 points or more in his last five games and the game had a high total.

$DPP Value Plays

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $4,700/$261 DPP — FD: $7,200/$400 DPP)
Bortles went into his bye week with the most passing yards in a game this season. He put up 330 passing yards and a touchdown. He had five games last season of 300-yards or more so the potential is there for a big game. This week he has a tough match-up against the Bengals who are allowing just 14.6 DK points per game but they have given up 16+ DK points the last two games which is what we need for Bortles to hit value. His salary helps open up a lot of other players in your lineup.

Brock Osweiler, Denver Broncos (DK: $4,500/$300 DPP — FD: $6,000/$400 DPP)
Osweiler draws the start this week and is at the rock bottom price. He needs just 13.5 DK points to hit value which against the Eagles could be doubled. The Eagles allow 19.4 DK points to the position and have allowed 3 multi-touchdown games this season. At his price it would be similar to starting a second tight end.

Running Backs

While quarterbacks struggled to score, top tier running backs had monster games. Ezekiel Elliot continues to be Houdini as he has escaped suspension for 9 weeks straight. The latest is an emergency appeal filed by the NFLPA. He scored 30.4 DK points. That was second to LeSean McCoy who put up 32.3 DK points. Top value picks were Lamar Miller at $5,200 scoring 22.3 DK points and DeAndre Washington at $4,100 scoring 21.8 DK points. With Marshawn Lynch serving a one game suspension, you had a choice between Washington and Jalen Richard. If you went Richard, you picked wrong. The highest owned player was Joe Mixon at 37% across tournaments. He failed to meet value scoring just 12.9 DK points.

$DPP Value Plays

Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions (DK: $3,900/$325 DPP — FD: $6,200/$620 DPP)
Sometimes you have to take risk in DFS on guys that haven’t been getting it done but their price is so low that a big game would get you 6X production. Abdullah is near minimal price and fits this weeks game script. The Lions face the Packers who allow the leagues 3rd highest rushing yards at 125 per game and are 5th in fantasy points allowed with 26.4 DK points per game. They also have given up 3 receiving touchdowns out of the backfield. He needs 11.7 points to reach value.

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers (DK: $6,500/$392 DPP — FD: $6,100/$555 DPP)
McCaffrey was the 4th highest owned running back last week but managed jst 10.6 DK points. With an increase price and a poor performance last week, his ownership should be lowered. However, he stands to benefit the most from Kelvin Benjamin‘s trade. Benjamin saw 6+ targets over the last four games and I don’t see them going to ever is named WR2. McCaffrey has been inconsistent this season but should be more involved in the offense going forward. This week he faces the Falcons who allow the 6th most DK points to the position with 26.1. If Matt Forte can come back and post double digit fantasy points (as he did against the Falcons) then McCaffrey should be able to put up much more. The Falcons have allowed 6 or more receptions in five games this season to running backs.

About Walter Collazo

Writer for Fantasy Sharks since 2006. Member of FSTA. Winner of 2014 Fantasy Football Article of the Year Online, awarded by FTSA.