I feel bad for the Titans and Texans who have to follow up on last Monday Night’s showcase game in which the Rams and Chiefs surpassed 100 points between the two of them. That said, despite the lack of obvious draw to this Monday night’s game, there will still be value in that contest. Our Week 11 “Tight End Punt” strategy didn’t quite pay off although we were close in two of the spots. We’ll try to balance things out a bit more this week but once again, there is a ton of value in the mid- to upper-tier. We’ll need to take some chances in selective spots if we are going to fit all of these under-priced heavyweights into the same GPP lineup but if we get it right, it all should pay off in the end.
On to Week 12!
Kirk Cousins QB, Minnesota Vikings (DraftKings $5,500 FanDuel $7,700)
Despite an underwhelming performance propped up by garbage time in Week 11 I find myself recommending Kirk Cousins once again. The matchup on paper vs. the Green Bay Packers is nothing exciting (the Packers are averaging 16.5 points allowed to opposing passers) nor is the over/under which is down to 47.5. I’m hoping last weeks performance combined with the less-than-stellar game total numbers will keep Cousins ownership low(er). Kirk is 2nd in the league in pass attempts, 3rd in completion percentage, and 7th in passing yards. He is surrounded by legit weapons and torched this defense for 37.5 points back in Week 2 at Green Bay. This game is in Minnesota and could be a nice spot to save on your budget with Cousins.
Nick Mullens QB, San Fransisco 49ers (DraftKings $5,400 FanDuel $6,000)
Nick Mullens has over 500 yards passing and 4 touchdowns since taking the reigns for the 49ers back in Week 9. In Week 12 he draws the ever-generous Bucs in Tampa who are averaging a league-worst 23.4 points per game to opposing QB’s and have failed to keep an enemy passer out of the end zone in any game this season. The way the pricing is set this week we’ll need to save in a few spots and Mullens looks like a solid bet for value given the matchup. We have a limited sample of his work with only two games under his belt but we know what sort of production Kyle Shanahan gets out of his passers. Early returns suggest Mullens is a competent option that should bear fruit in what looks to be a high scoring affair (55 point over/under as of this writing.)
Matt Ryan QB, Atlanta Falcons (DraftKings $6,100 FanDuel $8,600)
This is the absolute most I want to spend on a quarterback this week and it actually comes with a good bit of risk. We thought Carson Wentz might be a good option at New Orleans last week but that was far from the case as Wentz turned in a pathetic 3.84 points. This week Ryan finds himself in a very similar situation but he has his track record on his side. When these two teams met in Atlanta in Week 3, Ryan tossed 5 touchdowns, posting a whopping 43.2 points. With New Orleans favored a fitting, yet disrespectful 13 points in this contest, the game script heavily favors the Falcons passing attack. Ryan has the 5th most attempts and the 2nd highest completion percentage along with the 3rd most passing yards in the league (trailing only Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff in that final category). When you combine this usage stats with the projected game flow and match up vs the 4th most generous defense for quarterbacks, I can’t keep Ryan on the bench in Week 12 – he’s got too much going in his favor.
Lamar Jackson QB, Baltimore Ravens (DraftKings $5,700 FanDuel $7,400)
Did you know that only Saquon Barkley and Leonard Fournette had more carries than Lamar Jackson last week? When you get a quarterback with this much athletic ability being used in this fashion you’ve got to get him into a few lineups! His passing left much to be desired but the way they called the plays in last week’s winning effort over the Bengals, you’ve got to think they will try to repeat that success. The Ravens shouldn’t meet much resistance vs. the Raiders and their bottom 12 defense in terms of average points allowed to opposing passers. There are cheaper options for sure but the rushing upside begs Jackson to be played!