Four weeks are officially in the books and we’ve certainly had a lot of exciting football to watch – flags and all! We had a good bit of success last week (head to the bottom to see how last week’s picks performed) and we are starting to get a decent picture for how good or bad some of these teams really are. There are a few huge games this week so we’re going to see some stacking options as well as some deep value plays as we aim to stretch that budget! Lets dive into it:
Alex Smith QB, Washington Redskins (DraftKings $5,700 FanDuel $7,400)
The Saints have been getting gashed by opposing quarterbacks having given up the 2nd most fantasy points to the position thus far in 2018. Its almost a given to start a QB facing them but Smith hasn’t been exactly special this season. He has yet to surpass 300 yards passing in any game but he’s also yet to face a defense that has struggled this much vs the pass. The Saints are averaging 311 passing yards allowed per game along with 11 passing touchdowns allowed through 4 weeks. Coming off the bye-week, with 2 weeks to prepare I like Smith to have a nice game here.
Philip Rivers QB, L.A. Chargers (DraftKings $6,700 FanDuel $8,200)
This one has shootout written all over it! The over/under has risen to 53.5 with L.A. possessing a 29.5 point implied total. Rivers should have ample opportunity to put up points against this middling pass defense so while he is one of the higher priced quarterbacks this week, he should easily provide good ROI. On the flip side, Oakland has been putting up a lot of offense despite their record. As of this writing the only offense with more total yards on the season is the L.A. Rams – good company to keep these days! The Chargers defense has given up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing passers this season so the recipe is complete. Rivers looks like a sound investment in week 5.
Ryan Tannehill QB, Miami Dolphins (DraftKings $5,200 FanDuel $6,600)
I’m going pretty deep here but if you really need to stretch the budget, Tannehill could provide some value. He hasn’t surpassed 20 points more than once this season and actually turned in a 0 point effort last week vs. the Patriots, so his ownership should be nice and low. Mitchel Trubisky saw half a percent ownership in full slate contests last week and definitely was the difference maker for many in GPPs. Its got some risk to it, but I think Tannehill can put up a decent game here against the 6th friendliest match up for QB’s on the season. Doing something like this could be a differentiator in your lineup and free up a good chunk of change.
Ben Roethlisberger QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (DraftKings $6,900 FanDuel $8,400)
The Falcons have given up 3 passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks over the past 3 weeks. After this week’s trip to Pittsburgh I expect that streak to extend to 4 weeks! This game is going to be heavily targeted due to its whopping 57 point over/under and I expect Ben’s ownership to be pretty high – but thats ok! The points will be there in what should be week 5’s highest scoring game. Both defenses are bottom 5 in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing QB’s and both teams currently rank in the top 6 in total passing yards. That is a recipe for success for both QB’s and with Matt Ryan only coming in at $100 less (DK) Ben gets the nod for me at home where he plays his best football.