Welcome back to football! I’m so excited that we have real meaningful football to watch this week. After many weeks of Best Ball drafts and redraft leagues, we can direct our focus to daily fantasy football.
We will focus on the players on the main slate because that’s where the most action will be. The Milly Maker is back with a $5 million prize pool. The salaries for week one have been set over a month ago and some of these players are going to be the cheapest we will see for a while. For instance there is a chance that Le’Veon Bell does not play in week one. Well normally that news would bump up Antonio Brown’s salary to $9,500+ but he sits at $8,600. Last season he was $8,600 or less just twice and they were against the Jaguars. Most of the season Brown’s salary was set over $9,000 so this would be a great week to roster him.
$DPP Value Plays
Tom Brady (DK: $7,200/$267 DPP — FD: $8,600/$358 DPP)
Brady enters week 1 as the highest priced quarterback on both Draftkings and Fanduel and yet he is priced about below his average salary from season where he cost about $7,600 per game. He is $1,100 less then he cost at his highest salaried price in 2017. He faces the Texans which he dominated for 39.72 DK points in week 3 last year. It was his highest point total of any week for the season. In that game he targeted Rob Gronkowski 10 times connect on 8 of those targets for 89 yards and a touchdown. This game has the highest total of the week with 51 points and the Patriots are expected to score 31.5 points. Texans finish last season as the 24th worst defense against the pass.
Tyrod Taylor (DK: $5,400/$284 DPP — FD: $6,600/$347 DPP)
Taylor, like Brady, is going to be chalky for week 1. He looked good in the pre-season and will have better talent around him then he had in Buffalo. He will have Josh Gordon, Jarvis Landry and Antonio Calloway to throw to in addition to tight end David Njoku and running backs Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson. That’s 5 legitimate targets to get the ball to. Last season, Taylor averaged 28.5 rushing yards per game with 4 rushing touchdowns. That is equates to about 4.6 additional DK points per game with his legs. The Steelers and Browns are expected to score 46 total points with Steelers only favored by 4. Taylor has a ceiling of 27.9 DK points and is the 17th most expensive QB on the board.
The running back position in my opinion is going to be what separates lineups on Sunday. If Le’Veon Bell is not active for week 1, David Johnson will become the highest price RB at $8,800 on DK. The chalk play heading into Sunday will be Rex Burkhead but I am not a fan of. First he had a slight knee tear early in preseason. He is 2nd on the depth chart behind James White and also has to share the ball with Sony Michel and Jeremy Hill. There are plenty of options elsewhere.
$DPP Value Plays
Alfred Morris (DK: $3,600/$360 DPP — FD: $5,500/$550 DPP)
James Connor would be a value candidate if Le’Veon Bell is not playing Sunday. However, until we know Bell’s status, Connor can’t be considered for lineups. With the recent news of Jerick McKinnon’s ACL injury, Alfred Morris and Matt Breida have both become topics of discussion for week 1. Breida might have a little more upside but Morris is more dependable. He is near minimum salary on DK where 10+ points from Morris would go a long way considering the salary he opens up for other positions.
Alex Collins (DK: $5,600/$373 DPP — FD: $6,700/$515 DPP)
Collins is a borderline RB1 in season long leagues and has the potential to put up big numbers this season. Last year he had double digit DK points in 7 of the last 8 games which included two games of 23+ DK points. He will face the Bills who were ranked 29th last season against the run. The Bills offense will struggle to score points against the Ravens and that will lead to plenty of touches for Collins.